Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[Penrith Snow]

1 hour ago, jules216 said:

The static low to the east of Slovakia did the job for me, it looked for a while that Tatra mountain shadow will prevent me from any snow but once uppers felll below -9 the convection broke trough last night resulting in my town receiving more snow then pretty much any location in Slovakia. This is the earliest snow accumulation in many years. This will thaw in Thursday when we will be on the wrong side of low pressure but indications are that temperatures will once again tumble below average after weekend, fingers crossed. Before hand a nice few cold night ahead. The mean between 20/11 and 03/12 will be about 4C below average thanks to inversion cold early and now proper good synoptic. Fingers crossed UK/IE will tap in to some snow soon. Pictures 2 and 3 are my balcony views this morning

Fantastic photos, thanks for sharing, its always interesting to read about conditions elsewhere in Europe. That's probably more snow than  I will see all winter.  

[Snow lover 2020]

10 minutes ago, MATT said:

Wow guys, I've not been so excited since Borris announced the first Lockdown... Has strange as that may seem.. Tell you what GFS ens are bringing alot of colder options to the table, and there could well be fine margins of falling snow during the next 10 day's or so! Perhaps the mods may soon be interested in a little competition, regarding the first place to record falling snow... When and where!! Let's keep the excitement going I say, its been a while since we had these kind of encouraging factors.... Long may it continue..

Oh my the 12th looks like snow event for south, that low pressure!!

[nick sussex]

The amplified upstream pattern disappears to be replaced by a more southerly tracking jet .

Not bad as long as you maintain heights to the nw .

In terms of any shortwaves heading se into the UK meeting any cold the general rule is the shallower the feature the more likely you can see snow.

So an elongated feature is what you’re looking for not the round shaped one.

 

[Tim Bland]

6 minutes ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

Oh my the 12th looks like snow event for south, that low pressure!!

Usually it would be ...but given the lack of cold to draw on (esp from the east) it’s probably cold rain away from high ground. Plenty of time for upgrades though...

[SLEETY]

All theses dream synoptics but the air isnt cold enough yet for low-level snow.Typical.probably best charts we will see all Winter

[jmp223420]

Forgive me for asking here, but which month is typically best for north sea temps. to be at their lowest?

[topo]

 

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

All theses dream synoptics but the air isnt cold enough yet for low-level snow.Typical.probably best charts we will see all Winter

And this is exactly what I don't like with this model output. It is very rare to have a set up like this, and now that models show that, there is no cold in Europe. It is so frustrating

Ι also can't see how these set ups can be upgraded. There is no cold in the entire Europe continent.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, jmp223420 said:

Forgive me for asking here, but which month is typically best for north sea temps. to be at their lowest?

would say around 15th Feb to 15 March

[Methuselah]

For lovers of cold rain, these charts'll be a godsend -- not so, for all us snow-lovers... Way too much warm air lingering over SE Europe...?

    

But, thankfully, by T+384, there are signs that the warm pool will become isolated, and combined with general Continental cooling, our fantastic synoptics might eventually pay off:

    

 

Edited November 30, 2020 by General Cluster

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, topo said:

 

And this is exactly what I don't like with this model output. It is very rare to have a set up like this, and now that models show that, there is no cold in Europe. It is so frustrating

Ι also can't see how these set ups can be upgraded. There is no cold in the entire Europe continent.

My thoughts if I may for consideration. We have a continental landmass lacking it’s warm air supply, low solar input and already unforecasted snow events in Eastern Europe [ jules post ] which will lower temputures.. I’m seeing a self generating cold pool to our east that only needs to drop by a couple of degrees to put us on the right side of marginal and feasible at timelines we are talking of a week plus.

 

 

[SLEETY]

Lets hope we get repeated patterns like this throughout the Winter,then its game-on.Not asking for much then

[nick sussex]

As soon as you get low pressure anchored over northern Italy that’s normally game over for mild weather into the UK . That’s the strongest winter correlation for cold conditions .

Then you look out for more shortwave energy heading se to help feed those low heights .

The main issue with earlier outputs was low pressure anchored too far west , get low pressure into northern Italy and good things normally happen moving forward .

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

My thoughts if I may for consideration. We have a continental landmass lacking it’s warm air supply, low solar input and already unforecasted snow events in Eastern Europe [ jules post ] which will lower temputures.. I’m seeing a self generating cold pool to our east that only needs to drop by a couple of degrees to put us on the right side of marginal and feasible at timelines we are talking of a week plus.

 

 

I noticed uppers on morning ECM was a touch colder. Near continent cooling nicely. I agree, it wouldn’t take much for things to look much more rosy. 

 

[Froze were the Days]

What a joke!...just seen the latest ecm 0z and that Russian high does nothing, just stays put in a permanent position. I don't like to say it but by day 10 looks like signs of the jet getting going towards the Greenland area.

[SMU]

06z Mean still heading for greenland > moreso than 00z

[danm]

Re people saying there isn't much cold on the continent to tap into. It doesn't take much for the European continental landmass to cool down significantly over a relatively short space of time. So I wouldn't worry too much about that at this stage. 

[Duane S.]

VERY exciting synoptics folks.

This sort of pattern rarely pays off on the 'first attempt' though, it usually takes 2 or 3 shots before we are properly in the game, and only then if we get over those inevitable yet-to-be-seen standard UK hurdles! To get any sort of decent snow event (away from the usual places), going into the first week of Met winter, is extremely rare and is so for good reason.

Keep your expectations low, and think longer term. If this pattern becomes entrenched, the Atlantic could end up seriously struggling against it going through December.

History shows us that with many proper cold spells there were often a series of 'near misses' and marginal events in the weeks beforehand, as the atmosphere became more and more predisposed to it. Feedback very much in play.

Just remember those dice. They are more loaded than normally, that's for sure.

 

[Snow lover 2020]

15 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

06z Mean still heading for greenland > moreso than 00z

That means mild and wet 

[That ECM]

T240 and look at that lot out of the 30 not many not good. Love a double negative. 26  

Edited November 30, 2020 by That ECM

[Nick F]

8 minutes ago, danm said:

Re people saying there isn't much cold on the continent to tap into. It doesn't take much for the European continental landmass to cool down significantly over a relatively short space of time. So I wouldn't worry too much about that at this stage. 

Yet is cold over southern Germany and much eastern Europe at the moment, maxes staying close to or just below freezing over next few days, despite T850s around 0C even a little above. Though pretty average for early December.

3pm today

Weds 3pm

Does turn less cold from the south over central and eastern Europe later in the week, as that low drops SE close to UK and winds turn S to SEly there.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

That means mild and wet 

On this occasion it means slightly below average and wet, in 2010 it meant severely cold and wet but that was a proper Greenland block.

[phil nw.]

I am keeping an eye on late Thursday into Friday.A bit of a ramp from i suppose but i was quite taken with this run.

The 06 z GFS shows a possible snow area around Wales/W Midlands late Thursday into Friday as the cold air cuts in from the north west around a secondary low feature.We can see this development on the T84hrs fax chart.

As most of us i am normally wary of lowland snow chances off an Atlantic polar airstream because of higher dew points  but looking at the 06z charts for  Friday early doors they may fall on the right side of 0c in some areas with precipitation.

Obviously still too early to be sure on this but that's quite a cold source of air from the Greenland icecap and with those marginal dew points plus precipitation there is a decent chance of snowfall for some and anywhere with elevation with a greater chance.

 

[tight isobar]

Just for ‘summing’ the latest plots into December... @no cold to tap into ??!!.  Have a word ref!!! Clear and concise evidence of both expanse/expel.. and these will continue to update as we gain...   by far the best position we’ve been in-going into to winter proper... for what seems an-age...

Edited November 30, 2020 by tight isobar

[Paul_1978]

9 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T240 and look at that lot out of the 30 not many not good. Love a double negative. 26  

Top image interesting. Just did a quick and dirty assessment and came up with:

4 with a north easterly component 
18 easterly 
4 westerly
4 north westerly 
1 south westerly 
1 northerly 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

On this occasion it means slightly below average and wet, in 2010 it meant severely cold and wet but that was a proper Greenland block.

Not feeling it this year Feb?

I have to say I am more optimistic about seeing some of the white stuff this Winter than I have for a few years.

I think we will need more than one bite of the cherry to see anything resembling a classic cold spell but I can see us lucking out at some point between now and Christmas.

Even FI on most of the latest runs dont seem to be keen on lows driving West to East so we only need a few "wedges" to our North to give us a dumping if the Jet stays predominantly South?

Just need the continent to cool down a little more and we could be in business!

Anyway eyes down for the 12zs.....

Someone somewhere might even be seeing snow before the end of the week!  ❄

 

Edited November 30, 2020 by Kentish Snowman