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Model output discussion - into the start of Winter


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

As if the easterlies are going to import milder uppers in the extended range. Beyond frustrating.

3C097C8F-03E0-4ABE-8A38-4E883143658B.png

It'll likely turn cold from the NE by the end of the run.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The 18z ICON predicting snow in the NE and to an extent the SW

iconeu_uk1-42-120-0.thumb.png.6e7fc37b2392e71b3030ccc59b5d9e7e.png

meanwhile...the gfs is showing an easterly at day ten> and cannot be trusted,well not that far out anyway

good to see corrections east with the trough from the models this evening...but we don't want it too far east otherwise greece would get all the cold weather

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
7 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Ita freezing cold at this stage. Days of cold stagnant air. It would only take the odd disturbance to ensure it snows. 850s aren't the be all especially at this time of year with short days.

Now that’s actually an interesting point, not that I claim to be an expert but I’ve often wondered if cold at that level is always the be all..  

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Is that high going on  a jolly to Greenland?

Either way its a belting run if you want seasonal weather..

Could be mate,the 06z had this similar scenario then dropped the idea by the 12z only to follow the trend on the 18z

whilst we have them lower heights(as i said the other day) into Europe,this in turn should prop the heights up in the Atlantic and north of the UK

if we can get these heights to back west a tad then it should enforce a northerly

Edit:hey presto...the gfs 18z is having a go,look north.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Gone is that pesky Scurasian ridge on this run...good riddance

now lets get some good amplification in the Atlantic with a trough dropping down from the north into scandi and UK.

time to turn in

goodnight all.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Gone is that pesky Scurasian ridge on this run...good riddance. 

We need that ridge for 2 or 3 weeks or we can kiss goodbye to a ssw in my eyes. Id rather have a blockbuster middle of January and a cold frosty December with a bit of snow than a 1 week blow out and mild n wet January and February 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Gone is that pesky Scurasian ridge on this run...good riddance. 

FI!  And be careful what you wish for, it is part of our insurance policy if the current plan goes ***s up, as can help to promote a SSW.  

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

GFS 18z looks very good face value but there’s a strange lack of cold air I actually don’t buy it a direct clean feed from NE would become very cold.

7E5D0529-D302-4462-B19A-5C11BDCE4847.thumb.png.f0cfce5e1dbe67d3059d6db524aebca6.pngB8293C8B-6ACB-4B32-A226-ABEE3CA03C67.thumb.png.33e21892c4ca22d8322248c31419c3e7.png439E73C1-DECF-48B4-80FB-34F7974616EA.thumb.png.e81e833ab89e64b62e9217a2b588a943.png

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Still look like a case of nearly but not quite on alot of the latest runs, but really wouldn't need too much of an upgrade to swing us almost over the top to some snow possibilities.

We continue to also look like having a sustained period of below average temperatures, little sign of anything other than below average for the next 15 days. nothing too cold but the surface will cool nicely over that time period and that will hopefully put us in a good position for the rest of the winter providing we do get another chance and it doesn't morph into a la nina shocker - no indication yet of that happening though.

Just gotta keep our eyes on what may well be coming down the line...

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
2 hours ago, snowsummer said:

I think we have to step back and look at the bigger picture.  Think of the snow like a train. You look down the lines and see it in the distance. Its on its way but not here yet. And when it arrives at the station we've still  got to wait for the doors to open.... now where have we heard those words before.....

That’s a cool way to look at it. Last 2 Winter’s here, in particular, it has felt like waiting for the doors to open. Perhaps this Winter that’ll actually happen lol. Models are already looking more interesting for the start of Winter this year already. Nothing too wintry yet, but an improvement so far from last year.

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m

Considering there isn't even agreement on where the low over us goes, there isn't much point taking what is suggested afterwards as gospel.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

A much better day ten chart from the GFS with low pressure centred over central Southern Europe than the ECM which has that west of Iberia .

Earlier the low fills a little quicker and sinks se however the coldest air still remains stuck to the west which is disappointing.

At least this isn’t a case of one chance and then a load of dross afterwards. If you can get to something like the day ten GFS chart then that should open up further chances .

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

The WAA getting further North this run at T252, this opens up a better Northerly feed and possibly a better places block to our NE as we head into FI - we shall see.

964B4BE9-40F2-4F21-BA9B-E4EB431DC9B6.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
28 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The WAA getting further North this run at T252, this opens up a better Northerly feed and possibly a better places block to our NE as we head into FI - we shall see.

964B4BE9-40F2-4F21-BA9B-E4EB431DC9B6.png

Well that quickly went wrong , the block didn’t hold up at all!! 

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