Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[TSNWK]

Someone mentioned early that it was because of upstream application that we were note seeing a east ward drfift for this low.. I took that as short term pain for longer term gain... if we do continue with eastward shunts I ponder if that is indication of a uptick on the jet and risk of the whole house crashing down..

Jeeze it’s hard work ;) 

[northwestsnow]

gfs looks to be following icon ?

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

gfs looks to be following icon ?

Yup!!!!and a less deep low as aswell so far!

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yup!!!!and a less deep low as aswell so far!

Yep, helps it glide effortlessly into Southern Europe so that’s all good too, T108:

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yep, helps it glide effortlessly into Southern Europe so that’s all good too, T108:

I'm not jinxing this run, let's hope it digs deep

[SMU]

GFS 138 clears the low through quicker than 12Z

Very chilly at the surface

[sheikhy]

Thats one serious col across the uk at 144 hours!

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS 138 clears the low through quicker than 12Z

Very chilly at the surface

Looks a bit like we are developing our own little cold pool in that col!!!

[sheikhy]

Really liking this gfs 18z so far!!a push eastwards early on then a col and now more amplification in the atlantic!!think in the morning we gona see more improvements on all 3 major models!!

[Matt H]

Would be great if we could develop a Greenie high from here...

Edited November 29, 2020 by Frosty Winter

[ALL ABOARD]

Game over for the Atlantic at 192... 

[damianslaw]

22 hours ago, damianslaw said:

 

Reliable timeframe is very short at present, 96 hrs tops, models cannot at this range pinpoint with accuracy where and how the trough will drop, so it's no surprise to see various outputs, west, central, east. 

On average we usually see an eastwards correction of trough alignment..

Won't be until the very near time line will know for certain, possibly 24 hrs, which means a good 72 hrs for more speculation..

As a result, how things develop after, far from certain.

This is a very complex set up. Far too premature to call out what will happen Thursday and Friday, I.e. depth of uppers, thicknesses, dewpoints, intensity, duration of precipitation etc. Will make for quite a bit of frustration..but this is when model watching is best!

Edited November 29, 2020 by damianslaw

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Game over for the Atlantic at 192... 

Yep, and look at the jet stream too:

At this time of year, we will just have to grow our own cold air and hope the favourable pattern persists.  

Question for those who’ve been on here longer than me...was the Greenland block of 2010 predicted well by the models or come out of nowhere?  

Edited November 29, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Griff]

6 hours ago, Griff said:

I don't know, could just be the gfs on steroids but it's obsessed with Atlantic blocking which I've never seen in my short time of following here. Wouldn't surprise me if it went all in on a huge Greenland block... 

A bit vulgar to quote one's self (sorry just been watching The Crown on Netflix), but the 18z clearly knows what I was trying to say earlier... 

[northwestsnow]

18z is cold at the surface ,through next weekend, short days, stagnant air, cold temps !

Atlantic closed off for a while   

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yep, and look at the jet stream too:

At this time of year, we will just have to grow our own cold air and hope the favourable pattern persists.  

Question for those who’ve been on here longer than me...was the Greenland block of 2010 predicted well by the models or come out of nowhere?  

Very well - I posted the noaa cpc from mid November showing a stable mid Atlantic upper ridge in the 8/14 ........

[Mapantz]

6 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Game over for the Atlantic at 192... 

That may well be. However, if you take the 18Z at face value, it could prove to be very wet for some areas. It shows that a blocked off Atlantic can also be a misery.

[Met4Cast]

The 18z is exactly what we want to see. WAA into Greenland develops the initial ridge, then the low over Canada sharpens the block pumping another round of WAA into Greenland, the block begins to develop and the low heads NE to the west of Greenland and gets shredded. Unfortunately the UK does have to endure several days of a low pressure system just slowly filling, though the surface would be turning increasingly cold.

[northwestsnow]

18z turning into a beaut if you want seasonal Christmas weather...

Ho ho ho...

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Yep, and look at the jet stream too:

At this time of year, we will just have to grow our cold air and hope the favourable pattern persists.  

Question for those who’ve been on here longer than me...was the Greenland block of 2010 predicted well by the models or come out of nowhere?  

From what I remember the general idea of the blocking around Greenland was picked up by the gfs a few weeks before, yes if you go on the archive and look at the runs from around 11th/12th November 2010 on, u can see the blocking charts starting to appear 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Meteociel propose des cartes du modèle americain de GFS

 

 

 

[Mike Poole]

GFS pub run T246:

Well this is looking very promising now isn’t it?

[Johnp]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS pub run T246:

Well this is looking very promising now isn’t it?

Shame about the lack of deep cold air, despite great synoptics. 

[Met4Cast]

The south & east would be buried in snow under this pattern if there were any cold air within a 1000 mile radius of the UK.

The lack of cold really is taking away any excitement for me.

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS pub run T246:

Well this is looking very promising now isn’t it?

 

Just now, Johnp said:

Shame about the lack of deep cold air, despite great synoptics. 

John beat me to it... Not cold yet at this point? 

[Matt H]

As if the easterlies are going to import milder uppers in the extended range. Beyond frustrating.