Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Looks fairly similar to 12z to me See below for comparison...

I thought you might be testing us and posting the same chart twice

Yes very striking similarity

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

A beautiful synoptic pattern spoiled by the lack of any actual cold this side of the Hemisphere LOL!

It is still November!

[damianslaw]

More interesting runs this evening from all models, no major changes, subtle shifts in where the trough drops, but all conjecture at this range. The key point is all continue to show the trough dropping through and now coming into the near reliable timeframe i.e. 120 hrs. From past experience normally we see eastward corrections at closer range, will have to wait until much nearer timeframes. 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

A beautiful synoptic pattern spoiled by the lack of any actual cold this side of the Hemisphere LOL!

It’s November still and into early December, unless extreme it’s still very good.  It won’t be mild...that’s for sure

 

BFTP

[Griff]

Anyone kind enough to point me towards last weekend's charts for next weekend (Saturday 5th) or kinder still post them here? 

Would be great to see the progression compared with tonight. 

Ta. 

Edited November 28, 2020 by Griff

[Froze were the Days]

I know this isn't rocket science but the longer we can sustain a blocked pattern the quicker the continent/Scandi and western Russia will cool down and benefit as we head towards winter proper - by that time Autumn will probably have returned

[Zak M]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Anyone kind enough to point me towards last weekend's charts for next weekend (Saturday 6th) or kinder still post them here? 

Would be great to see the progression compared with tonight. 

Ta. 

Here it is Owen!

[Allseasons-Si]

What the bloody hell is that?

a death star in the Trop pv...bye

@Tim Bland,yes the 18z is a carbon copy of the 12z..CONSISTENCY is key

i have seen enough now,my brain hurts...

night guys and take care.

Edited November 28, 2020 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Here it is Owen!

Nice one, not sure what I was expecting, but looking less benign and definitely going to be some weather around next weekend...  

[BlueHedgehog074]

15 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

They seem to be taking the scenic route ,

 

Yep, going through the lush countryside down many winding roads, but find themselves getting lost as they find the sign posts for freezing, wintry, weather. They should have gone down the highway!

[Tim Bland]

Agree it’s disappointing to get such awesome Synoptics but no real cold to tap into. Hopefully it’s just a case of slowly slowly catchy monkey... prize could be a cold snowy Christmas

[Allseasons-Si]

Although the gfs is slightly underwhelming,the same theme is in conscious with the overall pattern

a slow burner could reep rewards down the line as we go into Dec

 

a neg tilted trough coming out of the states is a good thing IMO,this could slide under the block north of it with a northerly coming down from Iceland,good hallmarks there.

[blizzard81]

I would advise some on here to look back at the general synoptics of the past 9 Decembers. Then compare those with what the current models are serving up for us this December. It will really help get everything into perspective. We are are in a really good place with regards to cold prospects over the next few weeks. 

[Allseasons-Si]

^not this time

but i am hopeful that this evolution will continue 

great chat today and thanks to all of you for contributing,love it like this

i do hope that we will be rewarded this winter,i really do and i am sure everyone else thinks the same,it has been a somewhat strange year as you all know with the COVID and i hope that we can nail it on the head prompto 

catch you all tomorrow for another epic find the snow charts,find the lowest thicknesses,dew points,wet bulbs etc and will it wont it parade from the fl posters(me included)

as Jeremy clarkson says:-

goodnight

 

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I would advise some on here to look back at the general synoptics of the past 9 Decembers. Then compare those with what the current models are serving up for us this December. It will really help get everything into perspective. We are are in a really good place with regards to cold prospects over the next few weeks. 

Ha, I was genuinely expecting the punchline to be "We see this promise every year, and it never delivers"! 

Glad to be wrong (so far)! 

 

It's already been and interesting 3 or so weeks of model watching. 

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, Griff said:

Ha, I was genuinely expecting the punchline to be "We see this promise every year, and it never delivers"! 

Glad to be wrong (so far)! 

 

It's already been and interesting 3 or so weeks of model watching. 

I only have good vibes about this one. 

[Geordiesnow]

The differences are so small that we could end up cold and wet or colder and potentially more wintry. 

The centre of the low has been trending more eastwards in this period but will it be enough to actually tap into Arctic air fully. 

Also the ridging has improved today however no model is suggesting a Greenland high so the ridge is likely to collapse quite quickly unfortunately which risks the Atlantic coming back in. 

As I say earlier today, if we did see a northerly flow in the 120 to 144 hour mark, it would seem a big ask for their not to be some changes so perhaps hints a northerly flow could happen but not showing it yet could turn out to be a good thing? 

It will be a big missed opportunity if we don't get any decent cold in from an Atlantic ridge and sums up our luck if the trough stays right on top of us during this time. 

[Allseasons-Si]

19 minutes ago, Griff said:

Ha, I was genuinely expecting the punchline to be "We see this promise every year, and it never delivers"! 

Glad to be wrong (so far)! 

 

It's already been and interesting 3 or so weeks of model watching. 

Boy you've got some catching up to do,try years

Just kidding mate

the 18z gefs mean at day ten is a good match with the ECM,although the gefs is slightly better with heights up into Iceland/Greenland.

 

 

Edited November 28, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[kold weather]

I think this spell coming up in and of itself is going to lead to little in the way of snow chances apart from maybe on higher ground. Its a classic "if only it happened a few weeks later/earlier" type pattern and insanely marginal. Most may get rainy sleety mess and perhaps a few flakes at the back end of any heavy showers/cold fronts.

However rather than viewing this as the whole dinner, perhaps it would be wiser to view this as the starter course, the thing that helps to cool down Europe/SSTs from being very much above average towards something we can benefit from if we get a reload a few weeks down the line from what is being seen on the models at the moment.

I'd be very surprised if we don't get at least one more bite of the cherry between the 15-30th December based on how persistent  that diving LP set-up is becoming on the models. Also each day that passes and we stay under a below average set-up across Europe helps to sway us towards less marignal situations IF we can get any future slidders/divers. Often cold winters have these sorts of cold primers at some point either in November or early December.

So whilst it may feel like we are wasting this set-up, I'd be somewhat positive that this won't be our only attempt at cold. I know some people are still carrying battle scars from the last 2 winters and are desperate for a set-up to come off, but those of us who have been around a long time know sometimes you have to do the ground work first.

[damianslaw]

59 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I would advise some on here to look back at the general synoptics of the past 9 Decembers. Then compare those with what the current models are serving up for us this December. It will really help get everything into perspective. We are are in a really good place with regards to cold prospects over the next few weeks. 

With exception of 2017 and 2012, first half of 2017 was cold and we had wedge heights to our north and slider low bringing widespread snow. 2012 brought a cold drier theme, chance of an easterly but then went very mild mid month. 

[MP-R]

57 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

With exception of 2017 and 2012, first half of 2017 was cold and we had wedge heights to our north and slider low bringing widespread snow. 2012 brought a cold drier theme, chance of an easterly but then went very mild mid month. 

The slider theme continued at Christmas too with snow overnight into the 27th for many. Then again, low pressure transferred SE on the 05th January setting up a brief easterly. Really, the only remotely lengthy zonal period of that winter was mid-late Jan.

 

[Radiating Dendrite]

Another 'if only we had better 850s' run from the 00z GFS. A few things though:

1. GFS is showing blocking throughout the entire run. For a model that normally has a preoccupation with Atlantic dross and dartboard lows in FI, the unwillingness to breakdown the blocking theme is quite telling. 

2. 850s tend to be colder as you get into reliable, from my experience (-2c becomes -3c etc). May not be much, but given potential marginality this could be important. 

3. Synoptic wise this is the best start to winter since 2010. It will certainly be cooler than average start to December with at least a few possible snow chances. 

Slow burn = big rewards (possibly)

[Weather-history]

Look how much GFS 0z op run was out by 240hrs ago (19th Nov) for now

 

ECM 0z op run 240 hrs ago

 

As for GEM.....

[carinthian]

22 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. Nice mid week picture painted from ICON below. Similar profile shown by UKMO run this morning. Probably cold enough for snow showers on the highest ground of NW Britain. Upper temp  forecast at 850mb  would be cold enough. Certainly , I would expect Alpine regions to be put on snow alert. I should get a update from this perspective later today ( Austrian Thread ) Generally all models pointing to a colder start to the winter season but still have concerns that the low sinks a bit further west of the British Isles and cuts off the Arctic flow air supply on its western flank. Maybe, we should get some clarity during this weekend or uniform consensus from the big 3 models !

C

Morning all, regarding the above post, this mornings models so far firming up and keeping the deepest cold air too far west of the British Isles. Its looks like short term pain to longer term gain to a route to some proper cold. However, think we are better placed than for a few years to eventually end up with some nice winter synoptics to start the winter season.  See what ECM comes up with ?

C

[carinthian]

12 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Morning all, regarding the above post, this mornings models so far firming up and keeping the deepest cold air too far west of the British Isles. Its looks like short term pain to longer term gain to a route to some proper cold. However, think we are better placed than for a few years to eventually end up with some nice winter synoptics to start the winter season.  See what ECM comes up with ?

C

Similar run from ECM to the others in the short term but shows colder uppers in the circulation over Southern Britain. So some good news there. Could it produce snow ?  Still too far out to predict and of course more runs yet before next weekend but all interesting watch event unfold . Great drama for you guys to come !

C