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Model output discussion - into the start of Winter


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Morning. If your looking for dry and cool/cold weather going forward then its a good possible outcome on the cards. I can't see any deep cold to the east tbh ie jules comment. That said I'm no lover of the zonal train and rain but any snow lovers may have a long way to go before any real excitement comes along 

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5 hours ago, Zak M said:

 

I think it's pretty much guaranteed that next week will be colder than average,

 

Gulp. You seem very sure of that? 

I'm sadly not yet convinced by the excitement on here. A chart like this is, imho, a recipe for trouble in future runs:

1294279480_Screenshot2020-11-28at07_22_10.thumb.png.c045de013518369352e0a7088ff52f8c.png

 

The problem is that we don't have a Greenland High and we don't really have a mid-Atlantic ridge. As our weather derives from the west I am always very wary when we end up relying on cold to come from any variant of easterly blocking. But, hey ho, I'm an amateur dabbler and what do I know.

I hope you're right!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
31 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Well there you go. Weeks ago I was mentioning the high pressure in Eastern Europe/East Scandi and Western Russia that just wont go away if anything it just strenghtens because of that possibly cut of low around Ireland.Good luck trying to find any cold source to tap in to in extended modeling.

Do we still have a moaning thread? 

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Morning all. Nice mid week picture painted from ICON below. Similar profile shown by UKMO run this morning. Probably cold enough for snow showers on the highest ground of NW Britain. Upper temp  forecast at 850mb  would be cold enough. Certainly , I would expect Alpine regions to be put on snow alert. I should get a update from this perspective later today ( Austrian Thread ) Generally all models pointing to a colder start to the winter season but still have concerns that the low sinks a bit further west of the British Isles and cuts off the Arctic flow air supply on its western flank. Maybe, we should get some clarity during this weekend or uniform consensus from the big 3 models !

C

winteroverview_20201128_00_120.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Czech Republic
  • Location: Czech Republic
52 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Well there you go. Weeks ago I was mentioning the high pressure in Eastern Europe/East Scandi and Western Russia that just wont go away if anything it just strenghtens because of that possibly cut of low around Ireland.Good luck trying to find any cold source to tap in to in extended modeling.

Ironic isn't it? Finally some low pressure south of us and it will probably be for nothing.

image.thumb.png.84561b7c1cad9c68d952684f3d689b7a.png

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Both the ECM and UKMO are uninspiring this morning . 

The former drops the low south in a manner which floods the continent with mild Med sourced air . Regardless of its attempt later to deliver an easterly which it dropped in only to stop coldies from reaching for the helpline ! The tease needs a lot to go right and then delivers not much because of the previous evolution.

The UKMO decides to blow up the low , something the ECM was doing for a few runs but has now moved on from !

Both the Euros deliver the worst of all worlds , the coldest uppers freeze the fish in the mid Atlantic leaving the UK fighting over the scraps at the buffet table ! 

The patterns are too far west and north so end up delivering a lot of rain with only the Cairngorms mountain goats enjoying some snow !

If you’re a coldie you want neither to verify , Euros be gone with you!

In terms of the GFS whilst not worthy of mass celebration at least disrupts the low in a manner which doesn’t flood Europe with milder air and has the most potential .

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

Sticking to the almost reliable (+144h) there’s general agreement for low pressure to be in control but the effects depend on the final position - whether we get cold and wet or mild and wet....... 

                               500s.                                                           850s

UKMO   5CE2C18A-52A7-4E3B-9C9D-C925E7B503F5.thumb.gif.c587920da587cb4750db4a24a99c1a94.gif  60339163-E61B-4C82-B03F-7A2C65280115.thumb.gif.4cd487be357ab4b74b951c86e93cc667.gif

ECM       4C009A3B-D917-41B1-86C5-52AB27D80E20.thumb.gif.7330cff02e018808777ddddc9d0e2865.gif  5201DFE1-6272-4DA2-8883-C6D13D187871.thumb.gif.f4815598306f001f16f156068a86a627.gif

GFS        AE2BB21D-DD99-4F56-ADBE-873889FB25AB.thumb.png.60440c271fd912cf8a41da396fda47c6.png  C2FCFF69-1DC9-45E3-8BA6-E28914FCA629.thumb.png.3d6fcec1bf29430256f40bb08c7e107d.png

GEM.     D46A01D9-EF96-427C-AEE2-58290ED8B0EF.thumb.png.d1fc4706256176d49379c9b38ba7452b.png  56CA5846-7203-41BF-9391-AA8933893FA2.thumb.png.c5635439a55e191b5d3c2bebc7e5afab.png

If that system can be shifted 500 miles east we could feel the chill from a northerly but what follows could come from the east..... 

Edited by Sky Full
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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

At last the Russian high joining forces with Scandinavia on ecm 240hrs lot earlier with gem.

Winter really will begin,been waiting patiently for this to happen get prepared everyone 

this will be a shock to the system will not be a time for the heating to break down.

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Posted
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather - any kind!
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire

Certainly looks to be an interesting start to winter this year. From what I can see in the models this morning, the thing we can guarantee is that the next 7-14 days won’t be dominated by low after low off the Atlantic, and that’s surely a welcome change after previous winters. A cooler than average period with increased risk of frost seems likely.

The overall pattern looks exciting purely because it’s very unusual for the time of year. However, I’m not getting too excited about the prospects for widespread snow. The modelling remains quite volatile past Day 7 and the spread in the ENS T850 values reflects this. However, as we all know, things do and can change and ultimately I’m happier with this scenario than what we’ve seen over the last few years, and with luck we can get an even better synoptic pattern heading into mid-late December.

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Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire

Morning all, back for another season in the madhouse. 
The high pressure out east certainly looks to be more robust than previous years - does this increase the risk of a fabled SSW later in the winter? 

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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Day 8 looks OK to me....

image.thumb.png.0483e8348bbeb509573c1834708f573f.png

Is that block to the NE going to become a player in December?

 I think you could be right nW looking at the EC 46 the block looks like it will hold and go on through most of December so I think that this block will be come a player in the long term in December I may be wrong however I hope I’m not

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Aye, deep FI and heard 144 UKMO not reliable, but wet snow possible at low levels in Midlands? (proper snow 300m+ is definite off that)

 

UW144-21.GIF?28-06

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

It looks December 1950 ish at the moment.

ERA_1_1950121418_1.pngGFSOPEU00_153_1.png

Let's hope it turns out to be like December 1950....

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Is it just me finding the output very underwhelming? Cold rain isn’t very exciting In my book!

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Is it just me finding the output very underwhelming? Cold rain isn’t very exciting In my book!

There's always one cool kid in the classroom who has to be different

Fair point, I guess the excitement / interest is because it's not currently locked into a permanent flat Atlantic?

More runs needed....  

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 20c. Also love a good thunderstorm!
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent

This is much better than say a month ago and indeed this time last year although the bar has been set very low (if this was 2011 there would be disappointment from the coldies!)

Still, the uncertainty in the models is a sign of a more slack Atlantic with more ebbing and flowing.

More ebbing and flowing of course means less Westerly winds!

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

❄️⛄️ -5c / 6c uppers freezing at 400m and 528 dam ...should just about do it! 

E9960B8A-219D-43ED-995C-C9C14BC03713.png

38823521-6CBA-4581-A0B1-4CC56992FFFF.png

3B365C1B-E466-438C-8859-B11DFF1A5704.png

Edited by Tim Bland
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Decent run from the 6z.  Looks like high ground anywhere in the UK and Ireland would do very nicely next Friday from this set up.  

image.thumb.png.56f0eed784bffda271860e2a3789335b.pngimage.thumb.png.ff3b5db4e4c75ddf98b6b894134c9557.png 

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