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Model output discussion - into the start of Winter


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor

Some interesting synoptics are emerging in the run up to December which after a mild November could offer potentially wintry conditions not seen in the past 7 winters.

 

Options showing up include Easterlies and Northerlies but time will tell which one will emerge.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
7 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.23d905279eb72ace5500b2e99ff18cee.png

Day 9...

Wedges beginning to appear ??

As mentioned yesterday longer term its that power house Russian Hp setting us up for further into winter. Also snow chances from this initial surge of cold air have always been knife edge. Its how much in situ cold we can build as troughs engage with this. 50/50 for initial cold. Still believe middle to end of January into Feb for the real deal

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
7 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Looks like a direct hit from the north on the JMA T192:

C56DE876-2C00-4D4C-BA3C-EACB8A5F1F7F.thumb.gif.c589cb9f6815c65b2d773f76022eada2.gif52B94D86-35D2-4935-B894-0958C90C154A.thumb.gif.eb646ec47bcee03263d6e9a424905d39.gif

Good 12z output today, confirms the view we are in the game, and probably will be for a few weeks if the strat and trop vortexes stay disconnected, actually getting more so on the NAM plot, based on todays GFS 0z:

E7578900-439D-4659-BAC9-473CAACC0F8B.thumb.png.d69931c12e0cd90067b6a46c85d38be9.png

Thereafter, the scene seems to be set for a possible SSW with the Aleutian low, Russian high combo, a significant precursor, so recurring in the output, illustrated on the ECM T240 chart:

A5A0CD00-7B74-48AC-80FF-8C295DAD5649.thumb.jpeg.c92cf1a203786f94facefad08c1ef9a5.jpeg

With the start of winter only 4 days away, coldies could hardly have more irons in the fire, so to speak...

 

Im 100% on the same page. Early to mid December snow surprises with no deep cold. Settling down late decemeber with high pressure. Unsettled early Jan. Main meal late jan

Edited by Scott Ingham
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
7 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed Mike...

There has been an abundance of blocking to the NE this November...

Could we see a SSW later in December??

I referenced this block earlier, at 1050mb its a monster ...

Last week in December a real chance of one for me as the tropics continue to give against what is expected in a strong nina

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
4 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Rain approaching from the SW will soon turn to snow when it hits air with -10c dewpoints !

EE5B52A9-8736-4F41-8EDA-356C45CC9C50.thumb.png.52e26a79f48b06273e0b9a5a0d55e5e6.png

There is the snow surprise i spoke about yesterday. Cold stagnant air being hit from the south or northwest

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
45 minutes ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

Is icon reliable? 

Not particularly, but FWIW it looks closer to UKMO than the GFS

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Looking good if you live on a big hill next week...I'm thinking Pendle Hill in the North West at 500m asl as an example...

GFS produces a very cold run this morning with lots of frosty weather on offer .

UKMO looks OK upstream just a little concerned its going to drag its feet with the troughing dropping from the North ...need the energy going south !

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

ICON, please be right

image.thumb.png.38052a18bd9a6a73087d008995f2a159.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Gfs & ECM now and what was showing for now. 

ED0DAF3A-C426-445D-8DE2-D3A2338A7931.png

139CFA9C-D606-4E49-A82A-C484CCC81AA1.png

E8299E78-CE4A-4C4C-B740-6E09DB0A9437.png

CB19F3BB-36B2-4562-BC3C-E7ACC3D6298B.png

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

Well there you go. Weeks ago I was mentioning the high pressure in Eastern Europe/East Scandi and Western Russia that just wont go away if anything it just strenghtens because of that possibly cut of low around Ireland.Good luck trying to find any cold source to tap in to in extended modeling.

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