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Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

As highlighted GFS & now the ECM look bang on day 6 as the ECM has ditched the deep low!

72269507-B071-4A8D-8964-AB77948D49CA.thumb.png.2752a5818f0f873f202e7e2af34afa9c.png6274F06C-D18F-449E-BDA7-A4EFB47220EA.thumb.png.8b7fbe750c06342fad024aecbef3a388.png

Very good ecm steve!!backed things slightly further west as well!just worried its gona go in default mode and implode at 168 hours!!could end up with a snowy battle ground situation at 144 hours if it backs west even more!

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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted

The 12Z ECMWF drops Low Pressure over the UK at 168 hours and keeps the Azores High pretty amplified upstream. Rather chilly.

8D8FCE31-7BA4-4C74-944E-BABE72E3E007.thumb.png.3230ad48917d1bd8a076c47a799a27d5.png5A276160-C8C4-4C09-ABBF-215AF6449C60.thumb.png.c0e4c9a216394b0bf4a6d2fd083c1eb1.png

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

Plenty of cold rain/sleet for higher ground on this one. Hopefully it gets better. 

image.thumb.png.b17c0e69517c205073db8584fb514583.png

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Snow for London west

7BF53A44-806F-48CD-B7E2-8BAB3EEACAD9.thumb.png.ea646d1e9a313490efcc6bd5bb28e8db.png

 

I won’t get the sledge out just yet....perhaps sleet,  tops of chilterns ...stood on top of a crane...during the heavier bursts...anyone know a good crane hire company.

E5136A22-4074-4E99-B51C-1C9440115D14.png

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Aaah there she blows at 192 hours!!!!

You forgot to add “look Steve”

968C4209-69C2-4592-839E-0A798C896270.png

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Frustrating to see a potent Northerly deliver off the west coast of Ireland !!

But if everything moves East a little as it has been doing, we could be in with a shout.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Frustrating to see a potent Northerly deliver off the west coast of Ireland !!

 

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

We really need some help upstream at day 9...

No worries mate, I’m sure there will be some eastward correction on subsequent runs..wow did I really just say that!..hiccup:drunk-emoji:

0E38F8DF-4032-4944-AB89-04280EDC8440.thumb.png.df65210ac389574852c347e0941e4eb3.png

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

Amazing how trop PV goes from one compact monster in Greenland & northern Canada to disappearing to Siberia. Hemispherically wonderful.  


AB647A17-BF9D-4A3A-AF71-23EC15C4DB6E.thumb.png.5612f531800fe434a27f039592e6ff0f.png69EEBAC8-557B-4591-BBDA-387BA4781718.thumb.png.7cc6c9e8112c930b282ddc03b88a0627.png

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

We need that whopping 1050mb high across NW Russia to make a move...

It is NW, going north

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

I’ve run out of reactions..shame cos there’s some great posts again today..anyway, looking at the the ECM 12z op..at least it isn’t mild judging by these uppers (850’s)...and there is scope for something much colder..with a bit of luck!..sorry charts not in order, I’m as drunk as a  :drunk-emoji:

0DF910C8-FCF9-4885-B75B-1EA92A855D45.thumb.png.404c27bcce54769ff77013210eb358ca.png21AC0594-2FCA-4E35-AB6E-9C190862BC15.thumb.png.63d09ac221ce5ebbf4b1d4f35201556a.png7990EF02-37C4-4D8A-98A8-F0089DA8DC5C.thumb.png.984ae38ef35ef82d40c2258f79e555d9.png78FAC992-2931-4CF1-8003-71C6D93F3CFF.thumb.png.1e03bb7b4319f0589cb052dfabaf5020.pngBE8C8014-BD05-4DA7-9FE7-844B7ECE70A9.thumb.png.2a62b3120ca5898faba691b43956b685.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

The beast would need about 3 weeks to get round that high. good to see blocking showing to be serious.

FC487C73-1CA1-42C9-BA0A-2F0B8B26414C.png

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

We really need some help upstream at day 9...

Why is that?

liking what I’m seeing, no rapid upgrade run after run but a drip feed of steadiness, a wobble and more steadiness....looking solid to me...and I hope it continues

 

BFTP

 

image.png

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
Wrong chart
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