Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[Nick F]

12z UKMO T+144 looks further east with the deep trough axis extending south over UK next Thursday compared to other models, so an arctic northerly more likely over UK rather than staying out west over the Atlantic ... pity we can't see subsequent timeframes with T850s!

[sheikhy]

10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Personally i would like the UKMO to verify - ridge stronger and further up towards Greenland, based on the modus operandi, the ECM will be even more amplified, which would be great, sods law suggests it wont though, on this occasion i think not, GFS might be right - for once at D8.

Yeh looking at the 144 hour chart on ukmo i would like the ukmo to be correct from there on in!!!more amplified towards greenland as well!!as good as gfs looks between 144 and 216 hours i can only imagine ukmo looking a lot better

[Daniel*]

It’s certainly seasonal ECM op/ensemble guidance tread a bit colder later next week. Not showing much cold nights but ECM last night forecast London to have a low of 2C, Northolt in West London fell to -2.3C coldest night so far. With the fog a very wintry feeling morning temps have struggled highest temp today 6C. 

Edited November 27, 2020 by Daniel*

[LRD]

GEM follows the general theme of the sinking low and heights to our NE

850s are underwhelming though

[IDO]

Deja vu again at t306, third times a charm:

No thanks!

[Matt H]

Looks like the GFS 12z is trying to repeat a similar pattern later on as well. Seems to be reluctant to re-establish a flat zonal flow at the very least.

[Matt H]

2 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Looks like the GFS 12z is trying to repeat a similar pattern later on as well. Seems to be reluctant to re-establish a flat zonal flow at the very least.

Obviously it fails again because why wouldn’t it.

[Climate Man]

3 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Looks like the GFS 12z is trying to repeat a similar pattern later on as well. Seems to be reluctant to re-establish a flat zonal flow at the very least.

Problem is that 6Z did want to.....

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Looks like the GFS 12z is trying to repeat a similar pattern later on as well. Seems to be reluctant to re-establish a flat zonal flow at the very least.

Big part of this is no Euro high..

[LRD]

It's an isolated GFS FI chart but look at the size of the Azores High on this frame (still showing signs of wanting to be drawn north or NNW)

It's absolutely massive... as the actress said to the bishop

Edited November 27, 2020 by LRD

[swfc]

12zgfs at 360 hrs is epic imo. Its got the b+q footprint all over it. Bank 

[Tim Bland]

Looking good. Plenty of WAA into Greenland to sustain the pressure rise  

Edited November 27, 2020 by Tim Bland

[Day 10]

All in all not a bad start to this early Friday evening, quite liking the look of the UKMO over the GFS with better ridging up into Greenland.

Now over to the ECM to ruin everyone's start to the weekend!

[bluearmy]

very fi gfs op is interesting hemispherically  - there have been hints that some of the vortex will return towards Canada which will stretch it and the Canadian ridge may then punch through to split the tpv. that would then lead to a game of where do the bits fall thereafter ……. one to watch whilst deciding where the jet will place the diving atlantic systems as they traverse the atlantic ridge and drop into europe

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

very fi gfs op is interesting hemispherically  - there have been hints that some of the vortex will return towards Canada which will stretch it and the Canadian ridge may then punch through to split the tpv. that would then lead to a game of where do the bits fall thereafter ……. one to watch whilst deciding where the jet will place the diving atlantic systems as they traverse the atlantic ridge and drop into europe

Exeter seem to be suggestive of PM airflow through December ,which ties in with the idea of systems heading into the base of Europe ..( I like the moths to a flame reference to the low heights in place in Southern Europe attracting the jetstream).

Need assistance upstream though...which you alluded to I see..

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Exeter seem to be suggestive of PM airflow through December ,which ties in with the idea of systems heading into the base of Europe ..( I like the moths to a flame reference to the low heights in place in Southern Europe attracting the jetstream).

Need assistance upstream though...which you alluded to I see..

You summed things up so perfectly, my opinion is the same in that a flow north of west could be the predominant feature longer term which would be better than southwesterly mush!...however, we are looking at unusual Synoptics so all bets are off when some output shows the jet digging so far south...perhaps we (coldies) are going to enjoy some well deserved luck for a change following the recent, frankly pathetic excuses for winter!

[Sweatyman]

17 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

All in all not a bad start to this early Friday evening, quite liking the look of the UKMO over the GFS with better ridging up into Greenland.

Now over to the ECM to ruin everyone's start to the weekend!

Guaranteed to be the pooper

[swfc]

Brown nosing and hope casting is fine but should probably be in the moans and ramp section. Anyway not much in the way of a fixed direction on any output today ie mobility or a blocked scenario. Jet is trending south via the UK but nothing out of the ordinary on the 850s front. Guess the loss of the euro high is a plus but looking to the nnw a weakening of the PV towards Greenland is for me a must. Hopefully Heighths exiting the esb will give things a boost. Enjoy your weekend

[chris55]

Not a clear pattern going forward IMO, making anything showing in the longer term even more unlikely than normal.

Quite an unusual synoptic pattern with the Azores high/Atlantic ridge, Scandi/Russian high and the trough in the middle. 
 

Cold potential higher than normal, but more runs needed. 

[sheikhy]

Ecm and gfs look the same at 96 hours!!ecm a tad more amplified maybe!!

[Anthony Burden]

As the Russian high nudges ever closer to Scandinavia,will the low pressure from

the northwest track to the west,over us or just to our east.Very interesting synopsis 

and what is the preferred track to maintain cold continental air over us.I have no

preference as to me personally the high pressure from Russia edging west will

control cold easterly over us within 7 to 10 days.

[Frosty.]

Just looking through the GEFS 12z I’m not seeing the usual (default) southwesterly mush dominating anytime soon...indeed I’m thinking something rather colder is more likely, something more blocked?...hoping for a December arctic blast but at least something colder than average would be acceptable?

[SMU]

As highlighted GFS & now the ECM look bang on day 6 as the ECM has ditched the deep low!

[Tim Bland]

So far so good ...ECM looks better than GFS over SW Greenland 

Edited November 27, 2020 by Tim Bland

[SMU]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

So far so good ...ECM looks better than GFS over SW Greenland 

Yes has a little wedge in there!