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Model output discussion - into the start of Winter


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Dont know why people post day 10 mean charts or worry about even 5 days ahead being accurate when  even forecasts for the next 48 hours from Wednesday afternoon  are so inaccurate..It was supposed to be sunny here Thursday and Friday with a sharp frost.Not seen the Sun since that met office 10 day trend forecast wed afternoon lol

Edited by SLEETY
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Assuming the mild pattern is always going to win out in a period of weather where amplification is ongoing is sometimes a very sticky wicket...

The models 'generally' in the mid term keep moving back to an amplified pattern-

Take the last 2 12z ICONs for 04am Mon - The jet then the third chart is todays 06z for that same timestamp - Note the sharpness of the jet....

A3F83329-AE52-42A4-89B0-6C5CDED93406.thumb.jpeg.4551839d759f9a3a4dc3514a2a2db494.jpegCE0962CE-8308-4F6C-802B-411DF57CB740.thumb.jpeg.2ed80d09e1d58ca29bca6495d8846c48.jpegADFF6B0B-C74A-4795-B822-607FBF4F1AEE.thumb.jpeg.8dc2cf584f647eeaa846096a458151fe.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
49 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Assuming the mild pattern is always going to win out in a period of weather where amplification is ongoing is sometimes a very sticky wicket...

The models 'generally' in the mid term keep moving back to an amplified pattern-

Take the last 2 12z ICONs for 04am Mon - The jet then the third chart is todays 06z for that same timestamp - Note the sharpness of the jet....

A3F83329-AE52-42A4-89B0-6C5CDED93406.thumb.jpeg.4551839d759f9a3a4dc3514a2a2db494.jpegCE0962CE-8308-4F6C-802B-411DF57CB740.thumb.jpeg.2ed80d09e1d58ca29bca6495d8846c48.jpegADFF6B0B-C74A-4795-B822-607FBF4F1AEE.thumb.jpeg.8dc2cf584f647eeaa846096a458151fe.jpeg

Steve latest gfs 06z amplifies more at 84 hours!!!going towards the ecm!

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Can just hear the forum deflating, like the release of a balloon at a funeral. 

image.thumb.png.08978a646df7047d6996650e2e85b51e.png
 

 

Edited by PerfectStorm
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Comparing the 06z yesterday and today you can see the trend of the GFS to flatten the pattern and the height bias now being corrected as we get newer data:

today>> gfs-0-174.thumb.png.d1f72f4df9570fc2c96ff7fd2c0a8033.png yesterday>> gfs-0-150.thumb.png.6b0ad6c03da7c8f81fb76a351c8c8865.png

If this creep is maintained over the next few runs it will simply be a benign flat westerly flow!

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

Hello this is where I who has been round far too long still dont completly get it? - two seasoned posters looking at the same charts - one with a view amplification has sharpened, another that the pattern is flattening - The timing may be a little earlier for " amplification " than the later flattering - but if the outcome longer term is a flatter pattern what benefit is there of the earlier amplification?

Confused a tad.

Thanks

 

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7 minutes ago, IDO said:

Comparing the 06z yesterday and today you can see the trend of the GFS to flatten the pattern and the height bias now being corrected as we get newer data:

today>> gfs-0-174.thumb.png.d1f72f4df9570fc2c96ff7fd2c0a8033.png yesterday>> gfs-0-150.thumb.png.6b0ad6c03da7c8f81fb76a351c8c8865.png

If this creep is maintained over the next few runs it will simply be a benign flat westerly flow!

But the more important part of the run ie the earlier part ie more amplified- so every part of your arguement is based on a jelly beneath.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Gfs 6z at 144 hrs plus to me looks to be heading for a fairly flat westerly flow. I'm at a loss what everyone else may be seeing and if I'm missing it a apologise. I can't see anything out of the ordinary on the current output for early December. Granted not raging zonality plus lower Heighths to the south. Slightly bewildering where this is going tbh 

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Even Stevie Wonder can see T90 06z Todays V 114 06z Yesterday 

Look how sharp the jet is through Scandi

Loom at iceland where the jet is now further north.

So until the model gets a grip of the solution in the 72-96 area its pointless highlighting ongoing changes in the 120-144...

5DA14BDC-4D1D-424D-8323-A7A09B0988A0.thumb.jpeg.5b640de6f009443319e7b8b8704295fe.jpegEAC0B7EC-D0F9-4A40-A157-586AF674B975.thumb.jpeg.fd933cdd571015193b2202cfc0c06025.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

But the more important part of the run ie the earlier part ie more amplified- so every part of your arguement is based on a jelly beneath.

It is the spoiler low off the NE of Canada that is shaking hands with the trough to our north that will drive the flow, that linkage around d5 has been corrected earlier by 12h (viz 0z). As soon as that link happens the heights are cut off and the game is over?

gfseu-0-126.thumb.png.90e4b3ef6ba5c27207207ef4ed0be25c.png

It is an enabler for a faster toppling of the Atlantic high. Probably a direct consequence of the West-based US high shifting the sands?

Edited by IDO
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Even Stevie Wonder can see T90 06z Todays V 114 06z Yesterday 

Look how sharp the jet is through Scandi

Loom at iceland where the jet is now further north.

So until the model gets a grip of the solution in the 72-96 area its pointless highlighting ongoing changes in the 120-144...

5DA14BDC-4D1D-424D-8323-A7A09B0988A0.thumb.jpeg.5b640de6f009443319e7b8b8704295fe.jpegEAC0B7EC-D0F9-4A40-A157-586AF674B975.thumb.jpeg.fd933cdd571015193b2202cfc0c06025.jpeg

Slightly disrespectful to us lesser mortals Steve tbh. I guess all will be revealed during the next few days. Hopefully 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

well  back to normal according to gfs after a week or so,always these type of charts in far away land seem to verify,of course if cold is showing..............

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

Yep and vortex setting up shop in Greenland.. there is new signal being picked up here since the overnight runs

and thanks IDO for explaining objectively your thoughts, really helpful towards explaining how broader events upstream can override our local ebbs and flow with the jet..

 

 

Edited by TSNWK
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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

That’s big difference I think gfs is Progressive here don’t think ecm as it right either at that stage still lots of changes to come a cold start December is real possibility..

8D271CDB-C385-4194-9277-B6EDD0E85764.png

75073184-58CA-4CF8-BE71-70E19EC8C727.png

Edited by abbie123
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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

Expecting the models to flip flop around all weekend. So often we see them pick up a certain pattern and run with it for days and days. And then they just drop it, only to revert back in a few days time.

Not saying we're going to see a cold spell develop, but as a coldie I wouldn't give up hope for the beginning/mid December just yet!

Just too much flopping around to take anything too seriously right now, whether that be cold or mild.

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
19 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Aye, 06Z is much flatter by T+240:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

The 06z always seems to flatten out the pattern before the 12 and 18z re-amplify.

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
12 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

That’s big difference I think gfs is Progressive here don’t think ecm as it right either at that stage still lots of changes to come a cold start December is real possibility..

8D271CDB-C385-4194-9277-B6EDD0E85764.png

75073184-58CA-4CF8-BE71-70E19EC8C727.png

It really is quite laughable as to why they're so miles apart.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

But, following the 'flat' blip, things do end on a more interesting note: not all that far from 'square one' in fact... a nice build-up of cold air over Europe, too. Garden paths aplenty?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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