Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - into the start of Winter


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Decently cold at the surface towards the end of this week, probably getting maxes around 3-5c, so pretty cold for the time of year.

With that being said, I still think anything more than a few flakes in the air mixed in with rain is optimistic based on what I can see with regards to this flow, unless of course we see something of an upgrade (very possible). 

My main attention is still further out beyond day 10 when we can hopefully finally get some upper cold loaded around any upper high that develops to our north, IF it develops of course!

 

Edited by kold weather
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yes and so do you MET4cast as ive seen you post them. Im not here to have my views picked apart. I don't post often as I work researching future meteorology. Comments like that patronizing are what put me off commentating in the first place. Get a grip and some respect 

Um. What?  I was being genuine. 

I don't have access unfortunately, the ones I've posted were taken from others who had posted them on Twitter. I take back what I said previously though, you're clearly just here to do some trolling. Bizarre response there.

Edited by Met4Cast
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Um. What?  I was being genuine. 

I don't have access unfortunately, the ones I've posted were taken from others who had posted them on Twitter. I take back what I said previously though, you're clearly just here to do some trolling. Bizarre response there.

Clever response. I'll continue to keep my knowledge and work i do to myself. Just keep an eye out for some papers on the subject on the 17th of December 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
4 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

gfs pub run just reinforces my own personal opinion,Russian high in total charge,and edging 

west words to Scandinavia.Cold continental easterly flow to win over Atlantic.

 

This is a good thing. We want this close as we want the western European trough to drive against this and push some heat up into the strat 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Thank you 

Is there a discussion for technical opinions where you don't get patronized and picked apart by people that don't understand the science. I know Tamara has also been put off at times 100% due to the nature of the new science involved.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
1 minute ago, wellington boot said:

Your last couple of responses were crazy touchy. I was reading your posts with interest, well on your side following Daniel's slightly dismissive post, and wanted to know more, but am now perturbed and perplexed...

Saw nothing patronising or remotely disingenuous or sarcastic from @Met4Cast or anyone.

So just for the record, this is a good way to turn people off and kill trust.

Indeed, I was genuinely hoping to get access to the charts in some way, or at least have them posted so that I could see what the latest offering was regarding the AAM/GWO, it's quite an important signal to be aware of as we go into the winter period, particularly at the moment given the huge amounts of uncertainty. Really not sure why he responded in that way, but nevermind!

The 18z starts off well but seems to default to a typical GFS flat pattern further into the extended range. Though perhaps signs of a reload coming!

gfsnh-0-324.thumb.png.88c970ffc84d6cfe0ab10cc93bd73e96.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
7 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

This is a good thing. We want this close as we want the western European trough to drive against this and push some heat up into the strat 

Yeah there has been some discussion from a few on here today earlier that if you can get a strong enough upper high developing it will help to disrupt any developing PV. Anything that can keep the PV from coupling up through the atmosphere is a good thing obviously.

The 18z looks a little flat for my liking though, and its rather different quite a few of the ensembles from both the EC and GFS that are trying to keep it at least somewhat amplified, even if it isn't necessarily to our benefit always.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Cpc 8/14 finally catching up with the expected scenario and painting a sig w european upper trough ( marked 1). For those who were asking the other day, this feature tallys with a low anomoly so expect to see an area of low pressure over France during the period (won’t be the whole 7 days)

the area marked 2 shows a high onomoly mid Atlantic but there is no corresponding upper ridge - hence we won’t necessarily see particularly cold uppers being fed into the W euro trough from any systems traversing the Atlantic high. However, I suspect that the flat nature of the upper flow is as much to do with the ens not being in strong agreement as anything else. by the time this period is within the 6/10 day output, I would think you will see an upper ridge shown although not necessarily very sharp ...

5C72509B-6ADC-4A92-9D32-E9002DFF4B66.thumb.jpeg.128c3889d7cb89d160a8feda24b810db.jpeg

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK

Looks likes this winter, might bring me back!

Some more exciting prospects to see this winter. Potential SSW mid December?

Could get a nice taste of early winter in December! Frost and cold/cool (for some!) and maybe some flurries about (Mainly on high ground) 

Do people think this GFS upgrade which happened last year I think? Has fixed some of the issues it had? Generally wondering.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
17 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

B9C15224-1991-49B5-A0F6-B4276D7A1DB0.thumb.jpeg.85587e08d7e21468bd4c04ee449cdaec.jpeg:santa-emoji:Oh my..I’m liking the cfs longer term...  ❄️ ⛄️ 

10BE2200-7117-4227-A2B2-F1BD12BD63B9.thumb.png.1eb78837e100eace185d7fbb042d5dbe.png532CC1EF-A520-44A9-B38B-1875EBC6CC67.thumb.png.a9f562281858127699a75dcf2979ca85.png3DB49E85-C7D5-41AD-8575-7D4DAED2F867.thumb.png.fbc14fd4b25a384ee775ed340c20ca5e.png31A720DD-CE39-443E-8C87-1B0CF4F735C7.thumb.png.f10d02712bfde8ef0abb938f28a701bb.png0B4B8E26-97BF-49B8-B3EB-E60638BC7DC3.thumb.png.3b4d903e2399f08610232a85a8ba2b4c.png90EAC095-A51A-4346-AB63-A2D24E6F54E9.thumb.png.b130f8ee11c4ca0c432c66f91c1dce9b.pngE560C12E-C006-4290-959F-905E4B6F9312.thumb.png.179fdd45ebb158b5e5949c06efe24764.png869D82FA-5C44-452B-96F1-FE47A021902E.thumb.png.03cfeafee01d62bbc1f1c6c70440b4fc.pngE6FEC8F5-02C3-4B07-B28D-84B2FE0421C1.thumb.png.e22719e98ad40d9ff2506b92b108426f.png

The CFS has been churning out charts similar to these for the last few months in the very long range..BUT now it isn’t such long range is it!?...I can’t think of a better prezzie from Santa this year!  :reindeer-emoji:  

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

A whole bunch of posts that didn't conform to the topic of the thread have been pushed to the recycle bin!

Move on and get back to ushering in an Easterly please.

 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
26 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

B9C15224-1991-49B5-A0F6-B4276D7A1DB0.thumb.jpeg.85587e08d7e21468bd4c04ee449cdaec.jpeg:santa-emoji:Oh my..I’m liking the cfs longer term...  ❄️ ⛄️ 

10BE2200-7117-4227-A2B2-F1BD12BD63B9.thumb.png.1eb78837e100eace185d7fbb042d5dbe.png532CC1EF-A520-44A9-B38B-1875EBC6CC67.thumb.png.a9f562281858127699a75dcf2979ca85.png3DB49E85-C7D5-41AD-8575-7D4DAED2F867.thumb.png.fbc14fd4b25a384ee775ed340c20ca5e.png31A720DD-CE39-443E-8C87-1B0CF4F735C7.thumb.png.f10d02712bfde8ef0abb938f28a701bb.png0B4B8E26-97BF-49B8-B3EB-E60638BC7DC3.thumb.png.3b4d903e2399f08610232a85a8ba2b4c.png90EAC095-A51A-4346-AB63-A2D24E6F54E9.thumb.png.b130f8ee11c4ca0c432c66f91c1dce9b.pngE560C12E-C006-4290-959F-905E4B6F9312.thumb.png.179fdd45ebb158b5e5949c06efe24764.png869D82FA-5C44-452B-96F1-FE47A021902E.thumb.png.03cfeafee01d62bbc1f1c6c70440b4fc.pngE6FEC8F5-02C3-4B07-B28D-84B2FE0421C1.thumb.png.e22719e98ad40d9ff2506b92b108426f.png

We all know the views on the CFS but it has been strangely consistent for a number of weeks now in churning out these cold synoptic. Maybe it's onto something, especially given the set up we have going into December...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
13 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yes most of the time a rampant PV is almost a death knell to winters prospects but there is a reason why not every winter reads a script. The atmosphere isn't behaving in a nina state just yet. Im simple terms. If we were in a nina state the tropical convection wouldn't get much past the Indian Ocean as the easterly winds would scrub out the westerly winds. As it is the base state is allowing the tropical convection further west. If you add the huge eamt event recently all the talk of winter over after mid January I believe is very premature. Now what we basically have is almost a neutral base state with low solar and low sea ice. This is the perfect combination for a ssw. To go with this you still need the mid lat highs in early winter set up in the right place. We do have this. The russianscandi block and upcoming western European trough in my opinion is going to create a very rare chance of am early end of December winter warming. What im saying is we have a watered down nina set up with soon to be Greenland pressure rise (tho not sustainable) bringing a cold snap but its the perfect blend. This Greenland pressure rise creates a trough in Western Europe against and unusually strong scandi block in a nina year. In a nina year this is where youd expect the trough to be. Its not its further west due to tropical convection and low sea ice in the kara and it means to me actually due to a ssw tje coldest period will have end of January and most of Feb. Im researching tje perfect 1/2/3 scenario in a nina year. The last time was 47 this scenario played out 

So am I correct in saying the expectation is for a 'mainly' cold December, followed by a relaxation of the cold towards the end of December into the new year. Then the main course from mid Jan? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
31 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

 Im researching tje perfect 1/2/3 scenario in a nina year. The last time was 47 this scenario played out 

Are you referring to 1947?

If you are, there wasn't a Nina in effect in that year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
29 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Are you referring to 1947?

If you are, there wasn't a Nina in effect in that year.

Apologies im dyslexic I havmt made that overly clear! I meant im researching the perfect 1/2/3 scenario in a nina year as in researching possibilities in this base state and that the last the 1/2/3 scenario played out was in 1947

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...