Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM day 8 is a bit rough.

Cold rain & windy  

Some snow for lucky people I assume it would only be high ground above 200-300m.

[weirpig]

actually not to bad at 216    thought the low may blow up further

[nick sussex]

Time for my first SSO ( Suspicious Synoptic Outcome ) of the season !

Low pressure deepening over the UK in that manner is very outlandish. Not buying it.

Earlier there are differences upstream which effect the progression of the low  to the nw of the UK eastwards . 

The UKMO deals with the eastern USA low differently from the ECM and GFS between day 5 and 6 which impacts that.

Edited November 26, 2020 by nick sussex

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Some snow for lucky people I assume it would only be high ground above 200-300m.

Bank

[blizzard81]

Ecm gets there eventually. I really like this chart. Getting very cold from this point onwards. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

35 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Not that hideous?  Slight adjustment and it would be lovely....and plenty of time for that....let’s hope we don’t see 3000mile SW’lies

 

BFTP

Ok the ECM Adjusts as anticipated....but it doesn’t mean it’s how it will happen...up to t120 needs to be spit on

 

BFTP

[Daniel*]

These charts would be seen very differently if there was good cold air available. Face value very intriguing.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Bank

not too dissimilar to GFS, feel us tier 3 folk deserve snow more? maybe not though

[SMU]

ECM 198 chart.

Nothing to see here.

[daz_4]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Ecm gets there eventually. I really like this chart. Getting very cold from this point onwards. 

I don't see anything cold in this chart. I doubt this would be enough for snow in UK and majority of Europe would be very warm.

[topo]

Unfortunately everything crashes to this incredibly strong anticyclone of Western Russia. So no cold can get into Europe.

Actually western and northern Europe need exactly the opposite of what ECM240 shows...

Edited November 26, 2020 by topo

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

I don't see anything cold in this chart. I doubt this would be enough for snow in UK and majority of Europe would be very warm.

Not saying its 'the day after tomorrow' type weather but I think it will be cold. Particularly under any clear skies at night. My reference being to the UK only. 

[MP-R]

33 minutes ago, swfc said:

Yes it is I agree. The thing is every year esp early December there seems to be a fatom easterly chase as soon as there is any Heighths to the east. Il lay diamonds it fails. Its not to say a cold spell can't land. Ec earlier was binned because it showed a blown up low heading south at day 10.if it showed a raging easterly with - 10 uppers there would be snow depth charts? Now then you get the back ground signals that don't back up a crap run? It's more informative to comment on the output not what could be coming ie ENSO, Nina footprint ete ete. Hopefully a good winter is on its way but if you can show me anything that in the near future that shows this then great. The outlook isn't zonal which is great, other than that I've zero idea

I get your point although it’s not relevant anything I’ve said. I never mentioned anything about easterlies and phantom whateverlies, just the fact that anything other than southwesterlies and the mild variety of westerlies is progress. A continuation of what we’ve had today would suit just fine, it doesn’t have to be sub zero all day and snowing to make a good winter imo. 

[topo]

Something like this please 

[Tim Bland]

10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 198 chart.

Nothing to see here.

A bit dubious considering the uppers Snowdonia and Peak District perhaps

[The PIT]

The only crumb of comfort no raging Atlantic.

[Mr Frost]

Oh god not the ECM snow depth charts again! 

Still waiting on this arriving from the 21/11:

 

And this from 23/11:

 

If there are any new members browsing the thread...only trust those when they are within the forty eight hours range! Then on the predicted day look out the window/radar watching for confirmation! 

[Met4Cast]

13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 198 chart.

Nothing to see here.

The ECM chart shows sleet as pink too, so the reality probably wont be quite as exciting as that.

[blizzard81]

9 minutes ago, topo said:

Unfortunately everything crashes to this incredibly strong anticyclone of Western Russia. So no cold can get into Europe.

Actually western and northern Europe need exactly the opposite of what ECM240 shows...

It could be worse. Much, much worse. 

[Daniel*]

 

12 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

I don't see anything cold in this chart. I doubt this would be enough for snow in UK and majority of Europe would be very warm.

Not quite a divided Europe. And actually under that W Russian high it’s very cold 850s not telling story. 

 

[Bricriu]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

It could be worse. Much, much worse. 

That is a Significant amount of blocking. Whatever about it getting cold enough for snow, surely there would be no swift return to zonality from that.

[Snow lover 2020]

I’ve had a look at the charts and everyone is being negative, just remember we have an SSW being shown for end of Dec. Lots of potential! 

[Anthony Burden]

So gfs ecm gem all now showing an attack from low pressure around 168hrs.
But what track will it take ,and will it remove the continental air completely.

Could go either way depending on the track,very good watching hoping for

some white stuff then return to cold and frosty.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[daz_4]

10 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

 

Not quite a divided Europe. And actually under that W Russian high it’s very cold 850s not telling story. 

 

Sure but that surface cold in Russia is of no use to us and warmer air would probably move pretty quickly over western Europe as well. I just don't like this pattern at all  That high over Russia is a winter killer.

[Daniel*]

18 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Sure but that surface cold in Russia is of no use to us and warmer air would probably move pretty quickly over western Europe as well. I just don't like this pattern at all  That high over Russia is a winter killer.

Well best we don’t look too far ahead. Looking quite wintry for you in near term in Central Europe even perhaps significant snowfall middle of next week, not a terrible way to start winter? 

Edited November 26, 2020 by Daniel*