Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[SMU]

ICON 18z shows the right amount of amplification needed to see a fairly decent reload from the East around 168.

GFS backtracking fast, Expectation tomorrow for 168 is a forecast flow of ESE into the UK with the hint of a NW flow all but gone bar the NW of the uk as the SE momentum wains & the low stalls out before slides south.

Best run of the day. UKMO 12z.

Edited November 25, 2020 by Steve Murr

[Allseasons-Si]

Evening guys,late again thanks to afters shift and reading/trawling through the post's in here

thanks to @Met4Cast for a great post earlier

i have done a bit of scribbling,this the eps at day ten from the 12z and firstly i will mention the +PNA(Pacific-north American) ridge and also shows a +ve on the graph below,this ridge to the NW of N America forces downstream trough to the E/SE of the US and in turn forces upstream ridge into the Atlantic and downstream trough through the UK and upstream Scandi block/high,these two ridges in both the Atlantic and Scandi are having a right ol time on the NWP'S IE:-tug west-tug east with a tug of rope but which one will win?,i have marked a question mark next to the ridge over Scandi because i still think there is an influence showing in the models/ens for a potential easterly still

this amplified pattern is reflected in the AO/NAO too.

so there is lots going on,how far north can these ridges push,how far south can the troughs push?,all interesting at the moment going into Dec,what is noticeable is that the zonal train hasn't left the station yet,wherever/whenever that might be.

take care all.

 

Edited November 25, 2020 by Allseasons-si
added text

[Nick F]

Waiting for a deep cold northerly or easterly  to appear in the UK at the moment:

Joking aside, the CPC 8-14 day 500mb outlook gives some optimism...

Good things could happen for coldies with that look, particularly good to see the TPV displaced toward Siberia still.

[Geordiesnow]

One trend I'm noticing is this is actually going to turn out to be a brief flow from the continent before the Azores high ridges in bringing Atlantic air and higher temperatures again.

A little disappointing as the models did suggest shallow cold air over the UK and now we are looking at plus 5 air from the Atlantic. 

As for further out, its hard to say but the trend for cold does not look strong too me, a west based NAO is just sticking 2 fingers up to the UK as far as cold weather goes but still time for the details to change on that. 

[Allseasons-Si]

The latest from CFSv2...

i will take that TYVM(thank you very much) for next month.

[northwestsnow]

UKMO 144 looks locked and loaded ...

[Daniel*]

GFS gets there in end? 18z to 00z marked visible difference unsure about what is going to happen to this ridge. 

[Ali1977]

Possible snow event at day 9 with cold air coming from the north into the top of that LP to our South. This would be a pretty cold day for most with snow showers into northern Scotland I imagine.

Another swing for the better after the overnight run.

 

GEM at day 8 also looks good, WAA into Greenland and the PV also getting attacked from West/Central Canada.

Edited November 26, 2020 by Ali1977

[Daniel*]

Very interesting start to the day, I don’t think this ridge is sinking low heights in med supporting it. Lots of WAA shooting into Greenland planting seed for reinforcement blocking to develop? I’d bank this in a heartbeat. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Very interesting start to the day, I don’t think this ridge is sinking low heights in med supporting it. Lots of WAA shooting into Greenland planting seed for reinforcement blocking to develop? I’d bank this in a heartbeat. 

Yep looks like it's going to have another go deep in FI

This all starts from a better upstream pattern around days 5/6!

I was banging on about it a couple of days ago.

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yep looks like it's going to have another go deep in FI

This all starts from a better upstream pattern around days 5/6!

I was banging on about it a couple of days ago.

Great run big -NAO watch ECM give out something bad  

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Daniel* said:

Great run big -NAO watch ECM give out something bad  

We're about 5/6 days away from getting over the line on this. Get that upstream pattern to play ball and we've a December cold spell locked in.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 finger 1 thumb 1 kick in the teeth for cold fans.

[northwestsnow]

So GFS looks in the main chilly as we head into December ...

Personally I'm ecstatic that a raging +NAO Atlantic driven pattern seems unlikely for a while...

[swfc]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

So GFS looks in the main chilly as we head into December ...

Personally I'm ecstatic that a raging +NAO Atlantic driven pattern seems unlikely for a while...

Yep. Also look at the low Heighths threw southern europe be it fi

[Cheshire Freeze]

We're starting to see signs of some warming higher up now too, albeit weak at the moment and at the edge of FI. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see a January SSW

Repeating signal, even out into FI, for the Aleutian low, Russian HP combo

Edited November 26, 2020 by CreweCold

[SMU]

Excellent start to the day > enjoyable runs with the battle of the continental air V the NW polar air & the UK sandwiched back in.

A definite trend to enhance both cold pools overnight which is never a bad thing, some bring the upper cold right into the UK from the continent so some push the polar air SE, ( the continent is just tipping it ATM ) but all roads lead to rome hopefully as the secondary trend overnight is to amplify the PNA more & more which is supporting the atlantic ridge to a higher amplitude as well... 

wait for it... Someone break out the nina footprint....

PTB 11 for me

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS)

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

Edited November 26, 2020 by Steve Murr

[northwestsnow]

GEM is also a nice seasonal run and ends with Euro heights destroyed...

[swfc]

16 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Excellent start to the day > enjoyable runs with the battle of the continental air V the NW polar air & the UK sandwiched back in.

A definite trend to enhance both cold pools overnight which is never a bad thing, some bring the upper cold right into the UK from the continent so some push the polar air SE, ( the continent is just tipping it ATM ) but all roads lead to rome hopefully as the secondary trend overnight is to amplify the PNA more & more which is supporting the atlantic ridge to a higher amplitude as well... 

wait for it... Someone break out the nina footprint....

PTB 11 for me

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS)

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

Yes Steve the dreaded footprint. Anyway as you say not a bad start and cold coming in at both angles. Do you think a mlb is on the cards given the low Heighths trending to the south and some still nagging Heighths to the nnw. Tia

[KTtom]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO 144 looks locked and loaded ...

It does indeed, unfortunately, as shown with gfs, the Scandi / Russian high most crave can be a real pain in the butt for northerlies, the vortex just doesnt make if far enough east to allow a northerly to set in (gfs anyway). Been here before chasing eastelies for weeks on end when in effect heights to the east leaves the uk in no mans land for weeks on end.

[sheikhy]

45 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Excellent start to the day > enjoyable runs with the battle of the continental air V the NW polar air & the UK sandwiched back in.

A definite trend to enhance both cold pools overnight which is never a bad thing, some bring the upper cold right into the UK from the continent so some push the polar air SE, ( the continent is just tipping it ATM ) but all roads lead to rome hopefully as the secondary trend overnight is to amplify the PNA more & more which is supporting the atlantic ridge to a higher amplitude as well... 

wait for it... Someone break out the nina footprint....

PTB 11 for me

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS)

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

Ecm more amplified at 120 hours as well!!!!lovely gfs backtrack this morning!!

[SMU]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm more amplified at 120 hours as well!!!!lovely gfs backtrack this morning!!

Yes looks excellent

144 feeling the love with a scandi Wedgy!

[sheikhy]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Yes looks excellent

144 feeling the love with a scandi Wedgy!

Beautyyyyyyyyy!!!!!just compared the current gfs to the 12z gfs from last night and its pushed the atlantic low further west aswell and adds more amplification near norway!!ecm is actually better than last nights 12z run at 144 hours

[That ECM]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

We're about 5/6 days away from getting over the line on this. Get that upstream pattern to play ball and we've a December cold spell locked in.

Just the 20-24 gfs runs to get through then without something coming along and knocking it bandy really like the ukmo and ecm out to t144. The fun of the chase eh? Those wanting to see the low track se, this could be the run.
 

Edited November 26, 2020 by That ECM

[SMU]

Nice 168 - Uk air getting squeezed at both edges - classic battle ground scenario...