Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[cheshire snow]

14 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Normally when a favourable Northerly is modeled in the t+192 timeframe, by the time it gets to t+0 the cold air has shunted East to central Europe. 

Maybe with the low modeled too far West it will shunt East accordingly. 

Or stay to our west and give the Canary Islands a covering of snow just be our luck.

C.S

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Day 10 has potential...I’m sure I’ve been saying that for over 10 days now

Less potential than other recent 12z runs in my opinion...in fact less potential than General Cluster finding what's on the end of those footprints.

[damianslaw]

Lots of uncertainty moving into December, rest of the month, chilly with frost and fog and welcome dry conditions with some sunshine. Some places could see stubborn mist and low cloud making it feel decidedly cold. 

I'll not comment on current models as can't see a clear trend, expecting further changes in future runs. A tricky set up.

[Griff]

8 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Lots of uncertainty moving into December, rest of the month, chilly with frost and fog and welcome dry conditions with some sunshine. Some places could see stubborn mist and low cloud making it feel decidedly cold. 

I'll not comment on current models as can't see a clear trend, expecting further changes in future runs. A tricky set up.

Agreed I'm not looking beyond next 5 days, even a week seems overly optimistic! 

[DavidS]

At day 10 on the ECM the Euro picture is not ideal, but as others have commented recently, the Northern Hemisphere Profile is encouraging with  the PV shunted well away from its usual location. 

Edited November 25, 2020 by DavidS
Image added

[Daniel*]

48 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Anyone know what the temps are like for night and day on ecm?

You’re near to Coventry? Well this is what it had. It had quite a bit of cloud and air mass bit warmer than previous runs, however, the temps particularly the nights modelled look too warm though, 1-2C difference between day and night highly suspect not mild southwesterlies later in the run I see why. I’m quite sure there would be less cloud, especially further south and east, and with very light winds, despite 850hPa not being cold, there would be cold frosty nights. It’s funny we still don’t seem to agreement with temps later this week.... my bet frost and fog dominating maybe ECM lacks resolution. 

the 00z was quite a lot colder

Edited November 25, 2020 by Daniel*

[bluearmy]

Fwiw, whilst the ops haven’t had the best day wrt to coldies hopes, the ec 12z extended eps do push the lower height anomoly further east to our south than previous runs 

The eps clusters go from five at day 10 to one beyond which means the opposite of what one cluster should do!  The options at day 10 do look better than the op did ....... the control does bring some snow across much of the country around the 8th 

so another day where we haven’t really seen any momentum building into a possible wintry cold period as we have on a few occasions over the years ......after yesterday’s op runs showed decent agreement, today’s have struggled big time in that respect 

onto tomorrow !   given the recent gfs ops, the 18z is only trusted to fill ten minutes before bed ! 

[sheikhy]

7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

You’re near to Coventry? Well this is what it had. It had quite a bit of cloud and air mass bit warmer than previous runs, however, the temps particularly the nights modelled look too warm though, 1-2C difference between day and night highly suspect not mild southwesterlies later in the run I see why. I’m quite sure there would be less cloud, especially further south and east, and with very light winds, despite 850hPa not being cold, there would be cold frosty nights. It’s funny we still don’t seem to agreement with temps later this week.... my bet frost and fog dominating maybe ECM lacks resolution. 

the 00z was quite a lot colder

Wow didnt expect that at all!!if anything i thought the 12z would have been colder with the high over us!!gota be wrong that

[Met4Cast]

5 clusters at day 10

Det run was in cluster 3, so two clusters with better solutions for cold than what the det showed, though to be honest none of them look particularly "bad" to me. 

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

5 clusters at day 10

Det run was in cluster 3, so two clusters with better solutions for cold than what the det showed, though to be honest none of them look particularly "bad" to me. 

If the border colours are the same as the Icelandic charts we’ve been used to viewing for the last couple of years for these, then all the clusters by day 10 are in the -NAO (green) category, which is good.  

[Met4Cast]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

If the border colours are the same as the Icelandic charts we’ve been used to viewing for the last couple of years for these, then all the clusters by day 10 are in the -NAO (green) category, which is good.  

They are! Here's the key.

[Duane S.]

MJO will be interesting to watch in the coming days.

Looks like heading into the Maritime area over the coming days. Local topography and the models getting a handle on the moisture gradient as it propagates eastwards seems to be the overriding reason this area is often (but not always) relatively poorly forecast. 

So, will it fade or will it push through into the the Pacific and 6/7/8?

[Daniel*]

19 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

If the border colours are the same as the Icelandic charts we’ve been used to viewing for the last couple of years for these, then all the clusters by day 10 are in the -NAO (green) category, which is good.  

+PNA very interesting as well W Canada set to become unseasonably mild looks extreme, much of Canada this month has been very cold, allegedly it is set to be strongest +PNA event for early December. It is responsible for knocking the polar vortex over to Eurasia from Greenland which increases our cold chances in Europe. No wonder with -NAO and +PNA Eastern USA is looking at some winter weather with northeaster potential. These pattern configurations are usually seen in Niño years not Niña, 2020 is a very weird year expect the unexpected! 

[georgiedre]

54 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

They are! Here's the key.

Looks like these pictures show what most model outputs are showing atm in some context 

[Griff]

18z GFS looking a tad more amplified 

Edited November 25, 2020 by Griff

[Bricriu]

It looks like a dry settled period, but no real widespread snowy period due to high pressure never making it up to Greenland. It's really frustrating with the  bulk of the PV gone on holidays from Greenland. It will more than likely return  by Mid December. I suspect we could end up with some stormy conditions soon after.

[sheikhy]

Gfs trying to do one of those embarassing backtracks!!stronger scandi heights again!!

[booferking]

Gfs almost gets the Northerly but looks game over these 2 areas will phase and all hell break loose in ESB = game over for Northerly. 

[Eskimo]

Not seeing much excitement from the GFS at the moment. I appreciate the NH profile looks better than we normally see this time of year, but I'm not seeing anything more than something seasonal, at best. 


 

[Griff]

GFS vs ECM in FI... 

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Gfs almost gets the Northerly but looks game over these 2 areas will phase and all hell break loose in ESB = game over for Northerly. 

Yes it looked promising up to around day 6 or 7 for suggestion of heights around Newfoundland, but then nothing. 

[feb1991blizzard]

FLAT!

[booferking]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Yes it looked promising up to around day 6 or 7 for suggestion of heights around Newfoundland, but then nothing. 

Yea frustrating could soon well set in by the end of the week if we keep missing by a few hundred miles either side

[Eskimo]

Here comes the blowtorch 
 

 

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Yea frustrating could soon well set in by the end of the week if we keep missing by a few hundred miles either side

Cold pool to the north west seems to just be sat there for an eternity and remain out of reach. 

 

However, futile to think beyond day 5 at the moment with any faith. 

Edited November 25, 2020 by Griff