Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[LRD]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Hard going the ecm 12z    216  drops the low to the south west and bring us southerly winds 

And the mid-Atlantic High looks like it's sinking. FI though so not to be taken too seriously

[weirpig]

Just now, swfc said:

Yep totally at odds with this morning, see what tom/Fri bring

yes too far out to worry  im sure  there will be other options appear in the coming days 

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Bang on cue.... From the ecm 

Almost bang on! ECM has latched onto the phase 5 MJO signal with this run, always poorer in the short term.

[booferking]

17 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yep  this looking good  northerly  with blocking towards greenland   on the next frame?    

The only reason why the Northerly failed is @Steve Murr  love for scandi high just let it go steve let it go

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Almost bang on! ECM has latched onto the phase 5 MJO signal with this run, always poorer in the short term.

Any clues as to what transpires after this? Assuming the MJO signal is correct. 

[Mike Poole]

Just musing after seeing the ECM T240:

Looking at the eastern USA, there’s a string of low pressures there from the 990 one in the purple out SE to two more that don’t seem to have much between them, and a small one just SW of the tip of Greenland, if they were to organise themselves more in future runs, would we see enough WAA to get into Greenland proper?

[Met4Cast]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Any clues as to what transpires after this? Assuming the MJO signal is correct. 

I'd be wary of the MJO forecasts at the moment, models have been absolutely awful with forecasting it in recent months. It could be that because the ECM is forecasting the MJO to move into phase 5, the Op today just happened to pick up that signal and ran with the pattern. I'd suspect it's more "luck" rather than noteworthy skill from the ECM at that range, but it certainly seems to fit with the background forcing. 

[Tim Bland]

Day 10 has potential...I’m sure I’ve been saying that for over 10 days now

Edited November 25, 2020 by Tim Bland

[nick sussex]

The ECM does edge towards the GFS solution leaving a middle ground solution which isn’t up to much ! 

 A middle ground solution is not what we want to see as it neither delivers  a northerly or enough cold in from the east .

As tonight’s outputs have made a change from previous runs I think it’s best to wait a few more runs to see whether they’ve over reacted or will become even more progressive with pushing the blocking away .

 

[LRD]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Day 10 has potential...I’m sure I’ve been saying that for over 10 days years now

Corrected for you mate 

[booferking]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Day 10 has potential...I’m sure I’ve been saying that for over 10 days now

JMA closest to a Northerly WAA right into Greenland but steve murr scandi high still there trying its best to not impress..

[Scandinavian High.]

I think this a bump in the road I think we are going to see blocking to north east strengthen over coming days how many times have we seen models drop and pickup again later on bbc long range seem confident a pressure rises to north east with even colder air and wintery showers.

[SMU]

13 minutes ago, booferking said:

JMA closest to a Northerly WAA right into Greenland but steve murr scandi high still there trying its best to not impress..

I would take that ^^ Best of both worlds incoming !   

[Anthony Burden]

ECM 12z showing high pressure for at least 7days lots of frost and fog with chilly days

not bad to say the least,then showing a push from the Atlantic low to our west and

The battle then begins between continental high pressure and milder Atlantic air 

all this if the correct solution,very plausible outcome as far as I’m concerned,what 

happens to low pressure any body’s guess.

 

 

[Sweatyman]

7 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

I think this a bump in the road I think we are going to see blocking to north east strengthen over coming days how many times have we seen models drop and pickup again later on bbc long range seem confident a pressure rises to north east with even colder air and wintery showers.

Sorry Abbie but i wouldnt believe those fools at BBC. Hopeless

[dragan]

temps still look around average for the next 8-10 days, which given what we’ve had, will feel chilly. 

[sheikhy]

Anyone know what the temps are like for night and day on ecm?

[BARRY]

10 minutes ago, dragan said:

temps still look around average for the next 8-10 days, which given what we’ve had, will feel chilly. 

After a warmish November things can only get better, but caution is the watch word.

 

[Mike Poole]

Whilst I’m sensing some considerable uncertainty in the model output, the ECM ensemble mean at T192 has considerable potential including for the kind of evolution suggested by the JMA:

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Anyone know what the temps are like for night and day on ecm?

There is a french site - can't find it, its a bit like weather.us i think but anyway just type in the location on the BBC site and i think that will give you them, after a certain range it then goes to eps mean or 'best data' (probably d1-10 - op) then 11- eps - not 100% on that though.

[northwestsnow]

Getting a little concerned the lows are dropping to far west ...

Need everything pushed east a little ... 

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Whilst I’m sensing some considerable uncertainty in the model output, the ECM ensemble mean at T192 has considerable potential including for the kind of evolution suggested by the JMA:

Thanks Mike..  in my view best chart of the 12z I've seen in the sense that vortex is well away from Greenland.

 

[Daniel*]

The ens mean more pleasant viewing with troughing takes it further south, we don’t want it loitering to our SW would encourage milder airflow.

Op > mean

 >

T850s

Edited November 25, 2020 by Daniel*

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Getting a little concerned the lows are dropping to far west ...

Need everything pushed east a little ... 

Normally when a favourable Northerly is modeled in the t+192 timeframe, by the time it gets to t+0 the cold air has shunted East to central Europe. 

Maybe with the low modeled too far West it will shunt East accordingly. 

[Mike Poole]

8 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Thanks Mike..  in my view best chart of the 12z I've seen in the sense that vortex is well away from Greenland.

 

Oh, it definitely is, it is just that apart from that the models are not as of yet showing a clear route to cold for the UK. If the vortex stays away, then I think we would be very unlucky if a UK cold pattern did not show itself at some point in the next three weeks or so, but we aren’t there yet.  

Edited November 25, 2020 by Mike Poole