NETWEATHER WINTER WEATHER PREDICTING COMPETITION

[B87]

CATEGORY 6 (White Christmas)

Belfast - NAY 

Birmingham - NAY 

Cardiff - NAY

Dublin - NAY 

Glasgow - NAY

Edinburgh - YAY 

Liverpool - NAY 

London - NAY 

Manchester - NAY

Newcastle - YAY

CATEGORY 7 (New Year's Day) South East/East Anglia Region

Maximum Temperature = 8.5c

Minimum Temperature = -0.5c

[Roger J Smith]

Before I venture a guess on these snow potentials, what's the minimum used to define a snowfall? Is it a measurable amount or a trace (like a few snowflakes seen blowing by?) ... from the current charts I could imagine a few of these locations having very small amounts of snow not adding up to even 0.1 cm. 

I guess the oddsmakers get their official yes or no from the metoffice? So it would be their call. Just wondering because in my experience, a trace snowfall is a no for a white Christmas, has to be some settling snow on the ground. 

Will post some guesses (some call them forecasts) when I have a clearer idea about this question. Rockall yes. 

[Roger J Smith]

7. Anyway whatever the answer might be, now somewhat more confident of snow, so mark me down for all ten "YAY" outcomes. 

8. For New Years Day temp range, highest 4.2, lowest -5.8 C. 

Thanks. 

[Tom Quintavalle]

11 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Before I venture a guess on these snow potentials, what's the minimum used to define a snowfall? Is it a measurable amount or a trace (like a few snowflakes seen blowing by?) ... from the current charts I could imagine a few of these locations having very small amounts of snow not adding up to even 0.1 cm. 

I guess the oddsmakers get their official yes or no from the metoffice? So it would be their call. Just wondering because in my experience, a trace snowfall is a no for a white Christmas, has to be some settling snow on the ground. 

Will post some guesses (some call them forecasts) when I have a clearer idea about this question. Rockall yes. 

Morning all,

Hope yourself and your Families, are well.

Much thanks to B87 above ^^^^, for your prompt, clear and concise predictions.

Also, thanks to Roger and his query above.

As strange as it sounds Roger, to land a successful White Christmas Wager in Bookmaking terms, just one single snowflake needs to be recorded, at the location in question.

I am now 65, and to my knowledge have only witnessed 2 official White Christmases, in the  S.E.London/N.W.Kent area, with Snow falling on Christmas Day.

The more significant of these, occurred in 1970. See the archived 500/850HPa Charts below:

                500hPa 00z 1970                                    850hPa 00z 1970

  

I recorded around 4 inches of Snow in my location of Bromley N.W.Kent/S.E.London, by the end of Boxing Day (26th).

I was 15 at the time and was unaware that I'd witnessed a full on Thames Snow Streamer, which was accompanied by a huge crack of Thunder, during the early hours of Christmas Morning. 

Below, are the archived 500/850hPa for the less significant event, in 1976:

                  500hPa 00z 1976                                    850hPa 00z 1976

  

A pretty similar set up, to 1970 but not as much of a definite Easterly flow.

The flow was more North Easterly and not as much moisture available in my location.

The S.E. Region managed to "squeeze out" a few light Snow Showers from this Synoptic pattern, enough for it to qualify as a White Christmas for London.

To answer Roger's query more fully, then.

Just one Snowflake needs to be recorded in those 10 Locations, that need predicting.

1981, is often mistaken for a White Christmas in London but in Bookmaking terms, it wasn't.

In my home location, there was around 2 to 3 inches of Snow cover but that had fallen earlier, in that very cold and Wintry December of 1981.

Even the epic cold, snowy Winter of 1962/63, didn't get going until Boxing Day.

Christmas Day 1962 itself, was bitterly cold in the South East. Snow, that had given many parts of Scotland a White Christmas, moved South the following Day and ushered in that legendary, bitter Winter.

See the archived 500/850HPa Charts below:

               500hPa 12z 1962                                     850hPa 12z 1962

  

Below, is a link to Oddschecker (the Bookmakers Odds Comparison Site), showing the latest White Christmas Odds, for various locations.

Christmas Specials Betting Odds | Novelty | Oddschecker

Regards,

Tom.       

[Tom Quintavalle]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

7. Anyway whatever the answer might be, now somewhat more confident of snow, so mark me down for all ten "YAY" outcomes. 

8. For New Years Day temp range, highest 4.2, lowest -5.8 C. 

Thanks. 

Much thanks for the above ^^^^^, Roger. I'll get those entered up.

Regards,

Tom.        

[CheesepuffScott]

CATEGORY 6 (White Christmas)

Belfast - NAY 

Birmingham - NAY 

Cardiff - NAY

Dublin - NAY 

Glasgow - YAY

Edinburgh - NAY

Liverpool - NAY 

London - NAY 

Manchester - NAY

Newcastle - NAY

CATEGORY 7 (New Year's Day) SE / EA.:

Max Temperature = 6.1°C

Min Temperature = -3.4°C

[Bobd29]

Hi Tom

my pinnthe tail guesses for Cats 6 & 7:

CATEGORY 6 (White Christmas)

Belfast - YAY

Birmingham - NAY 

Cardiff - NAY

Dublin - YAY

Glasgow - YAY

Edinburgh - YAY 

Liverpool - YAY

London - NAY 

Manchester - NAY

Newcastle - YAY

CATEGORY 7 (New Year's Day) South East/East Anglia Region

Maximum Temperature = 2.6

Minimum Temperature = -4.8

Thanks

Bob...

[John Stevens]

Hi Tom,

Thanks for the message about the additional competition areas!

 Here’s my extra entry:

CATEGORY 6 (White Christmas)

Belfast - nay

Birmingham - yay

Cardiff - nay

Dublin - nay

Edinburgh - yay

Glasgow - yay

Liverpool - nay

London - yay

Manchester - yay

Newcastle - yay

 

CATEGORY 7 (New Year's Day)

Predict the Max./Min. Temps recorded, during the 24 Hours of New Year's Day, in the South East/East Anglia Region.

min -2.8

max 5.2

Hope you have a relaxing and enjoyable Christmas!

Best wishes,

 

 John

[claret047]

Hello Tom,

Apologies for being late to the party but it has been manic at home recently And I have only had chance to look, hoping I am not too late.

Here are my totally uneducated guesses below:

CATEGORY 6 (White Christmas)

Belfast - Yes

Birmingham - no

Cardiff - no

Dublin - yes

Edinburgh - yes

Glasgow - yes

Liverpool - yes

London - yes

Manchester - no

Newcastle - yes

 

CATEGORY 7 (New Year's Day)

Predict the Max./Min. Temps recorded, during the 24 Hours of New Year's Day, in the South East/East Anglia Region.

min -4.7

max  3.2

 

Kind Regards

Dave

[Daniel*]

Almost forgot to respond! 
 

Belfast - nay

Birmingham - nay

Cardiff - nay

Dublin - nay

Edinburgh - yay

Glasgow - yay

Liverpool - nay

London - yay 

Manchester - nay

Newcastle -yay

[Tom Quintavalle]

Evening all,

Hope yourself and your Families, are well.

Much thanks to all the Entrants above ^^^^, for their prompt, clear and concise predictions, for Categories 6 and 7.

As I sated on Page 2 of the Competition Thread, on Tuesday Morning. Quote:

"I will extend the Entry Deadline, until 9 PM, on SUNDAY 20th DECEMBER."

I will now post up the predictions for Category 6 (WHITE CHRISTMAS), of SEPTICPEGSE12 and my own.

SEPTICPEGSE12, predicts a NAY for all locations bar one, with a YAY for GLASGOW.

TOMSE12, predicts a NAY for all 10 locations.

Your predictions for CATEGORY 7 (New Year's Day), MUST be posted on this Thread by NOON on Friday 25th December.

Just waiting on the Category 6 (WHITE CHRISTMAS) predictions, from DRECKLY, FROZE WERE THE DAYS, LOTTIEKENT and SEASIDE 60, now.

Regards,

TomSE12      

[Froze were the Days]

Here we go Tom:

CATEGORY 6 (White Christmas)

Belfast - NAY 

Birmingham - NAY 

Cardiff - NAY

Dublin - NAY 

Glasgow - NAY

Edinburgh - YAY

Liverpool - NAY 

London - NAY 

Manchester - NAY

Newcastle - YAY

CATEGORY 7 (New Year's Day) SE / EA.:

Max Temperature = 6.7°C

Min Temperature = -1.5°C

[lottiekent]

On 14/12/2020 at 10:34, TomSE12 said:

CATEGORY 6 (White Christmas)

Morning Tom

Here are my category 6 predictions

 

Belfast - nay

Birmingham - yay

Cardiff - nay

Dublin - nay

Glasgow - yay

Edinburgh - yay

Liverpool - nay

London - nay

Manchester - yay

Newcastle - yay

Edited December 20, 2020 by lottiekent

[seaside 60]

CATEGORY 6 (White Christmas)

Belfast - NAY 

Birmingham - NAY 

Cardiff - NAY

Dublin - NAY 

Glasgow - NAY

Edinburgh - NAY

Liverpool - NAY 

London - NAY 

Manchester - NAY

Newcastle - NAY

CATEGORY 7 (New Year's Day) SE / EA.:

Max Temperature = 5.4C

Min Temperature = -3.1°C

[Dreckly]

CATEGORY 6 (White Christmas)

Belfast - Nay 

Birmingham - Nay

Cardiff - Nay

Dublin - Nay

Glasgow - Nay

Edinburgh - Yay

Liverpool - Nay

London - Nay

Manchester - Nay 

Newcastle - Yay

[Tom Quintavalle]

Evening all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

Much thanks to FROZE WERE THE DAYS, LOTTIEKENT, SEASIDE 60 and DRECKLY, for their predictions above in Category 6 and in some cases, Category 7. I'll get those entered up.

The entry Deadline for Category 7 (NEW YEAR'S DAY), is open until Christmas Day.

Tomorrow Morning, I will post up details of another couple of Categories, for prediction.

Regards,

Tom.       

[lottiekent]

My entry for:
 

CATEGORY 7 (New Year's Day)

Predict the Max./Min. Temps recorded, during the 24 Hours of New Year's Day, in the South East/East Anglia Region.

min -3.2c

max 5.1c

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

I have decided to introduce another couple of supplementary Categories.

CATEGORY 8 (New Year's Day Snow?).

Just the 5 locations in this Category. 

Predict, with a YAY or NAY, whether it will Snow or not in the Capital Cities of the United Kingdom, and the              Republic of Ireland, during the 24 hours of New Year's Day.

Please Copy/Paste your predictions with a YAY or a NAY, into the location Boxes provided below:

CATEGORY 8 (New Year's Day Snow?).

BELFAST - 

CARDIFF -

DUBLIN - 

EDINBURGH -

LONDON -

Your predictions for CATEGORY 8 (New Year's Day Snow?), MUST be posted on this Thread by 9 PM, on Sunday 27th Dec.

I will post up details of supplementary Category 9  and the Scoring System for Categories 8 and 9, later on Today.

Regards,

Tom.         

[seaside 60]

1 minute ago, TomSE12 said:

Morning all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

I have decided to introduce another couple of supplementary Categories.

CATEGORY 8 (New Year's Day Snow?).

Just the 5 locations in this Category. 

Predict, with a YAY or NAY, whether it will Snow or not in the Capital Cities of the United Kingdom, and the              Republic of Ireland, during the 24 hours of New Year's Day.

Please Copy/Paste your predictions with a YAY or a NAY, into the location Boxes provided below:

CATEGORY 8 (New Year's Day Snow?).

BELFAST - 

CARDIFF -

DUBLIN - 

EDINBURGH -

LONDON -

Your predictions for CATEGORY 8 (New Year's Day Snow?), MUST be posted on this Thread by 9 PM, on Sunday 27th Dec.

I will post up details of supplementary Category 9  and the Scoring System for Categories 8 and 9, later on Today.

Regards,

Tom.         

Dont worry about being bored over the next couple of months come the end of Feb we will be on Category 53. 
 

[John Stevens]

Hi Tom,

Here’s my cat 8 entry
 

CATEGORY 8 (New Year's Day Snow?).

BELFAST - nay

CARDIFF -nay

DUBLIN - nay

EDINBURGH -yay

LONDON -yay

 

 best wishes?

 

 John 

[Tom Quintavalle]

1 hour ago, John Stevens said:

Hi Tom,

Here’s my cat 8 entry
 

CATEGORY 8 (New Year's Day Snow?).

BELFAST - nay

CARDIFF -nay

DUBLIN - nay

EDINBURGH -yay

LONDON -yay

 

 best wishes?

 

 John 

Hi John,

thanks for your predictions for Category 8.

The one other Category I want to introduce for now, will be CATEGORY 9 (NEW YEAR SETTLING SNOW?).

With Forecast Models looking interesting for some Wintry Weather to develop post - Christmas, you need to predict the first date of Settling Snow in the South East/East Anglia Region, in 2021. 

 

CATEGORY 9 (NEW YEAR SETTLING SNOW?) - Predict the first Date of Settling Snow, in the NetWeather, S.E/East Anglia Region. 

Just a dusting will count but NOT Hail. 

Just to clarify the Boundaries of the South East/East Anglia Region, again.

For the purposes of the Competition, the Weather recorded in the ORANGE Area, will count.

Any Snow that has fallen between Christmas Day and 31st December, will NOT count. Only from 1st January, onwards.

Please Paste your prediction, into the Box below:

CATEGORY 9 - Predict the first Date of Settling Snow, in the NetWeather, S.E/East Anglia Region, in 2021. -

Your prediction for Category 9, MUST be posted on this Thread by 9 PM, on Sunday 27th December.

Thank you.

I may introduce just one other Category in the Competition, for February.

Regards,

Tom.      

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

CATEGORY 8 (New Year's Day Snow?).

BELFAST - YAY

CARDIFF -NAY

DUBLIN - YAY

EDINBURGH - NAY

LONDON - NAY 

CATEGORY 9 - Predict the first Date of Settling Snow, in theNetWeather, S.E/East Anglia Region, in 2021. - 11th January 

[Bobd29]

Hi Tom

happy xmas to everyone and please stay safe....let’s be sensible.

CATEGORY 8 (New Year's Day Snow?).

BELFAST - NAY

CARDIFF -NAY

DUBLIN - NAY

EDINBURGH - NAY

LONDON - NAY 

CATEGORY 9 - Predict the first Date of Settling Snow, in theNetWeather, S.E/East Anglia Region, in 2021:

2nd January 2021

[B87]

CATEGORY 8 (New Year's Day Snow?).

BELFAST - NAY

CARDIFF -NAY

DUBLIN - NAY

EDINBURGH - NAY

LONDON - NAY 

CATEGORY 9 - Predict the first Date of Settling Snow, in theNetWeather, S.E/East Anglia Region, in 2021: 4 January 2021

[CheesepuffScott]

CATEGORY 8 (New Year's Day Snow?).

BELFAST - NAY

CARDIFF - NAY

DUBLIN - NAY

EDINBURGH - NAY

LONDON - NAY 

CATEGORY 9 - Predict the first Date of Settling Snow, in theNetWeather, S.E/East Anglia Region, in 2021:

4th January 2021