NETWEATHER WINTER WEATHER PREDICTING COMPETITION

[seaside 60]

Thank you Tom, having spent days studying the facts, previous winners,  the charts, the histories, ringing up several weatherman, nasa, the space station and more importantly my kids who didnt see me for days after taking their recommendations and studying them. 

Seriously Tom I know its your love of these things but its also a lot of time spent sorting these out.
So thank you for your time and whats the betting next year I end up with nil points.  

Oh I forgot to mention my friends, family, producers, my agents and the papers.

[Roger J Smith]

Thanks for the contest, it's a treat for me to enter one that requires no actual tasks for a change. 

I found out a few useful things about where to get relevant data, that's great because my main motivation for being active on weather forums and helping to organize contests is an aid to research that is ongoing.

I only knew about the 18.4 reading at Santon Downham because Summer Sun posted it in a thread here on NW, so hat tip to him rather than me on that one. Apparently this location does well at warm and cold readings according to their website. 

It turned out to be a winter with a little of everything, including some snow cover that was significant in a few places, but still leaving some hungry for more winter some other year. 

All the best in these troubled times, and the hope for better days ahead. 

[Tom Quintavalle]

                                                           NW WINTER WEATHER PREDICTING COMPETITION

                                                                                         FINAL STANDINGS

     ENTRANT                          CAT.1 CAT.2 CAT.3 CAT.4 CAT.5 CAT.6 CAT.7 CAT. 8 CAT.9 M/C TOTAL

  1. Seaside 60                          NIL  20.00   NIL      NIL   10.00   9.00    5.00     NIL    20.00      64.00

  2. Lottiekent                          NIL  20.00   NIL      NIL     5.00   6.00     NIL    7.00    20.00      58.00

  3. AvengerSE12 (Guest)       NIL  20.00   NIL      NIL     5.00   9.00     NIL    1.00    20.00      55.00

  4.= Daniel                                NIL     NIL  5.00      NIL      NIL   5.00     NIL     8.00   20.00      38.00  

  4.= John Stevens                    NIL  20.00  NIL      NIL      5.00   5.00    NIL     8.00      NIL       38.00

  6. Roger J. Smith                    NIL     NIL   NIL     NIL       5.00   4.00    NIL     5.00    20.00     34.00

  7. StephenSE12 (Guest)     10.00    NIL  5.00     5.00      NIL     5.00    NIL    2.00      NIL      27.00

  8. SepticPegSE12 (Guest)  10.00     NIL   NIL     NIL      NIL    8.00   5.00     2.00       NIL      25.00

  9.  CheesepuffScott             NIL      5.00   NIL     NIL      NIL   8.00    5.00     4.00      NIL       22.00

10. BobD29                               NIL       NIL  NIL      NIL     5.00   7.00     NIL    4.00      5.00       21.00

11. Dreckly                               NIL       NIL  NIL      NIL     5.00   7.00     NIL    8.00       NIL       20.00

12. TomSE12                            NIL        NIL NIL      NIL      5.00   8.00     NIL    1.00       5.00     19.00

13. K/Weather                        NIL        NIL  NIL      NIL     5.00   6.00     5.00    2.00       NIL      18.00

14. B87                                     NIL         NIL NIL      5.00    NIL     7.00     NIL     4.00       NIL      16.00

15. Froze W.T. Days               NIL        NIL NIL       NIL     NIL    7.00    5.00     3.00       NIL      15.00

16. Claret047                          NIL         NIL NIL       NIL    NIL    2.00    5.00    2.00        NIL         9.00

                                                 CAT. = Categories.

                                                  M/C = "Virtual" Monetary Credits.

                                                  TBC = To Be Confirmed.

 

SEASIDE 60, maintains his lead and claims victory, after top scoring in Categories 2 and 9.

LOTTIEKENT, also top scores in Categories 2 and 9, and claims 2nd place.

AVENGERSE12 (Guest), is another to perform superbly, in the same Categories, and finishes 3rd.

DANIEL, also top scores in Category 9, and dead-heats for 4th place.

JOHN STEVENS, is another to top score in Category 2, and dead-heats in 4th Place.

ROGER J SMITH, top scores in Category 9, and finishes in 6th place .

STEPHENSE12 (Guest),top scores in Category 1, and my Stepson takes 7th place.

SEPTICPEGSE12 (Guest),  also top scores in Category 1, and my Wife finishes in  8th place.

The rest of the Entrants scored in dribs and drabs,

I will now give details of the "Virtual" prizes awarded to the first 3 places:

1st. Seaside 60 - £64. 

2nd. Lottiekent - £58.

3rd. AvengerSE12 (Guest) - £55.

SEASIDE 60, wins an all expenses "Virtual" week long trip to the Ski Resort of Levi, in Lapland, for Christmas 2021, plus Hotel accommodation.

Also a "virtual" copy of the Essex County Weather book, co-written by a friend of NetWeather, Ian Currie.

LOTTIEKENT, wins a "virtual" copy of the Essex County Weather book, co-written by a friend of NetWeather, Ian Currie.

 

AVENGERSE12 (Guest), my Stepson wins a "virtual" gift voucher, for £12.

I'd like to thank all Entrants again for taking part, and God willing plan to "host" a repeat, next Winter.

It has been a lot of work at times but latterly has been a timely distraction, from the overwhelming grief felt after my Son passed away, exactly a Week ago Today.

Regards,

Tom.          

[John Stevens]

@TomSE12

 Thank you so much for running the competition, was great fun keeping an eye on it over the winter.

I just wanted to pass on my heart felt wishes for you and your family at this very difficult time for you all.

 With my best wishes,

 

 John

[Tom Quintavalle]

9 hours ago, John Stevens said:

@TomSE12

 Thank you so much for running the competition, was great fun keeping an eye on it over the winter.

I just wanted to pass on my heart felt wishes for you and your family at this very difficult time for you all.

 With my best wishes,

 

 John

Thanks for those very kind words, John.

QUOTE - 

"LOTTIEKENT, wins a "virtual" copy of the Essex County Weather book, co-written by a friend of NetWeather, Ian Currie."

Apologies to Charlotte, no point in awarding you an Essex County Weather Book, when you live in Folkestone, Kent.

That line should have course, read:

LOTTIEKENT, wins a "virtual" copy of the Kent County Weather book, co-written by a friend of NetWeather, Ian Currie.

Regards,

Tom.         

Edited March 5, 2021 by TomSE12

[Roger J Smith]

I thought the contestants might be interested in seeing how they did in statistical terms, the results are pretty close to the virtual credits. What I've done here is to rank the entries by error size from 1 (best) to 16 (doubleplusungood). Ties are broken by order of entry (if you are tied 4th with two others, for example, and entered before them, you're 4th, and they are 5th and 6th). Ties broken this way are shown with an asterisk symbol. Order of entry changes three times in the contest because new categories were posted for Christmas snow and New Years temp, and later on for NYD snowfalls at five capital cities, then finally the date of first settling snow in the contest region of southeast England. Those orders of entry are shown in the brackets at each interval. 

It's interesting that no forecaster went as high as the outcome for highest temperature (18.4) although B87 made what I would consider to be a most excellent forecast of 18.2, as did StephenSE12 (18.0).

Here's the table of ranked forecasts. This is like golf, low score wins. The number beside each name is order of entry (1 to 16). This appears a total of four times as there were three additional sets of questions. So those are ranked with reference to the order of entry that applies to them. Some gave part of the second set before they completed with a later post, that is not a factor as there were no ties of error size anyway for that second question (NYD temps). Any forecaster who missed a segment altogether receives 16th rank or would tie for whatever rank was awarded after all forecasts settled.

 The table has two parts, part one shows forecasts, part two shows rank of those forecasts from 1 to 16. The "will it snow?" categories are scored by correct guesses and the number of yes forecasts is not the metric being scored, although for the Xmas snow it turned out that way by virtue of the lack of yes answers, then for New Years it ran the other way round. But I scored based on what locations were predicted correctly (using the virtual credits as my backup to make sure I had that right). I did however factor in the number of wrong guesses, for example, if two were tied with one correct prediction but one had three wrong and another (me) had nine wrong, then the three wrong would rank higher than the nine wrong regardless of order of entry.

Category 1 asked for the number of storms and a name for the last one, I only scored the number part as the name would follow that.

This rather long table does not wrap on my screen, if it wraps on yours (rows not complete) then try a lower zoom magnification setting. Or just deal with it (the spirit of 2020 lives on !!). Please remain two metres apart while reading this unless you're in a bubble.

What am I even saying? 

 

FORECASTER __ Storms _ Snow__Min__Max__Xmas max, min_(order) Xmas snow_NYD max, min_ (order)_NYD snow_(order)_snow

Kirkcaldy Wx (1) __ 7 ___ 11 D___-10.4 __ 12.4 __ 6.0 __ -4.0 ____ (1) __ 4 _____ 5.5 __ 2.7 ___ (2) ____  2 ____ ( 1 ) ___ 11 Jan

Dreckly (2) ________5 ___ 30 D___ -4.0 ___ 12.0 __ 6.0 ___ 1.0 ___ (16) __ 2 ____ 4.0 __ 2.0 ___ (14) ___ 1 ____ (13) ____ 3 Jan

daniel* (3) ________ 6 ___ 9 D ___ -10.2 __ 16.0 __ 7.9 __ -1.5 ____(10) __ 4 _____ no fcsts ____ (x) ____ no forecasts^_ 1 Jan

B87 (4) ____________9 ___26 J ___ --8.9 ___ 18.2 __12.1 __ 1.8 ____  (4) __ 2 _____ 8.5 __--0.5 ___ (4) ____ 0 ___ (3) ___ 4 Jan

claret047 (5) ______4 ___29 D __ --6.3 ___ 16.5 __ 3.2 __ -3.1 ____ (9) ___ 7 _____ 3.2 __ -4.7 ___ (7) ____ 2 ___ (6) ___ 3 Jan

froze .. days (6) ___ 5 ___ 7 D ___--6.9 ___ 15.2 __10.1 __ 0.5 ____(13) ___ 2 ____ 6.7 __ -1.5 __ (11) ____ 1 ___ (x) __ no fcst

CheesepuffScott(7) _ 6 ___ 5 D ___-13.6 ___ 16.2 __11.7 __ 2.7 ____ (6) ___ 1 _____ 6.1 __ -3.4 ___ (5) ____ 0 ___ (4) ___ 4 Jan

Roger J Smith (8) _ 9 ___ 8 D ___ --8.8 ___ 15.8 __ 5.8 ___ 2.1 ____ (5) ___ 10 ___ 4.2 __ -5.8 ____ (6) ____ 5 ___ (5) ___ 1 Jan

bobd29 (9) _______10 __18 D ___ --5.4 ___ 12.7 __ 4.3 __ -2.6 ____ (7) ____ 6 ___ 2.6 __ -4.8 ____ (3) ____ 0 ___ (2) ___ 2 Jan

AvengerSE12 (10)_ 4 ___ 4 D ___ --9.0 ___ 13.0 __ 6.0 __ -1.0 ____ (2) ____ 5 ____8.0 __ -3.0 ____ (8) ____ 3 ___ (7) ___ 1 Jan

StephenSE12 (11)_ 3 __ 20 D ___ --6.0 ___18.0 __11.0 __ 2.0 ____ (3) ____ 4 ____ 9.0 __ -2.0 ____ (x) ____ no forecasts^ ___

SepticPegSE12(12) __ 3 __ 20 D ___ --7.0 ___16.0 __12.0 __ 1.0 ___ (11) ___ 1 ____ no fcsts^^ _____ (9) ____ 2 ___ (8) ___ 6 Jan

TomSE12 (13) _____ 4 __ 9 D ___ --8.0 ___ 15.0 ___ 5.0 __--2.0 ___ (12) ___ 0 ___ no fcsts^^ _____ (10) ___ 3 ___ (9) ___ 2 Jan

seaside60 (14) ____ 6 __ 4 D ___--11.5 ___ 16.7 ___6.6 __--1.7 ____(15) ___ 0 ___ 5.4 __ --3.1 ___ (12) ___ 2 ___(10) ___ 1 Jan

JohnStevens (15) __ 7 __ 4 D ___ --8.4 ___ 14.2 ___ 7.5 __--2.0 ____ (8) ____ 6 ___ 5.2 __ --2.8 ____ (1) ____ 2 ___(11) ___ 4 Jan

lottiekent (16) _____ 4 __ 4 D ___ --8.9 ___ 14.5 ___ 5.4 __--2.4 ____(14) ___ 5 ___ 5.1 __ --3.2 ___ (13) ____ 3 ___(12) ___ 1 Jan

ACTUALS __________ 3 __4 Dec _ --9.7 ___ 18.4 ___ 6.3 __ --2.1 ________ 1 of 10 _ 5.8 __ --2.1 ________ 1 of 5 ____ 1st Jan

___________________________________________________________________ (Manchester) ________________ (London) ______

-**- =============================================================================== -**-

SCORING for the above forecasts (rank order, 1 is best, 16 is doubleplusungood)

Scores marked with ^ are based on credits awarded where no forecast appeared on the thread, assuming these

may have reached TomSE12 by private message? (daniel late stages, StephenSE12 late stages, I didn't find their

forecasts in the thread). Also the NYD temp forecasts were not visible on the thread for TomSE12 or SepticPegSE12 

(these marked ^^ in the table above) but as SepticPegSE12 is mentioned for virtual credits, I have assumed these to be

in-house recorded forecasts, will be happy to adjust the rank order in that category if given any relevant info. For now I have

estimated scores, not sure which category to assign the higher score for NYD (SepticPegSE12) but went with max. In 

all cases, these estimated scores are either highest they could be given the credit information, or middle rank if no info.

__ so these are somewhat estimated at this point, will be happy to adjust this scoring table from any reported errors

or omissions __ a reminder, * symbol for ranks that were tied errors, but order determined by earliest entries. This 

symbol appears for more than one group for first snow in Dec (ties for 1-4, and for 8-9 ranks). For top ranks in the

Christmas Day max (6.3) four errors were identical, three at 6.0 and one at 6.6 all 0.3 out (ranks 01-04).

FORECASTER __ Storms_Snow__Min___Max__Xmas max, min_(order) Xmas snow_ NYD max, min_(ord)_NYD sn_(ord)_snow__ TOTAL SCORE

seaside60 (14) ____11 __ 02*___ 09 ___ 03 ___04*__ 04 ____(15) ___02 ___ 04 __ 05 ___ (12) ___ 14 ___(10) ___03 ___ 61

lottiekent (16) _____06 __ 04*___05*___11 ___06 __ 03 ____(14) ___10 ___ 06 __ 06 ___ (13) ____ 07 ___(12) ___04 ___68

AvengerSE12 (10) _ 04 ___01*___03 ___13 __ 03*__ 08 ____ (2) ___ 09 ___ 11 __ 04 ____ (8) ____ 12 ___ (7) ___ 02 ___ 70

JohnStevens (15) __13 __ 03*___ 07 ___ 12 __ 07 __ 02*____ (8) ___12 ___ 05 __ 03 ____ (1) ____ 02 ___(11) ___11 ___77

TomSE12 (13) _____05 __ 08*___ 08 ___ 10 ___ 08 __ 01*___ (12) ___01 ___ 08^^_10^^_(10) ___13 ___ (9) ___ 06 ___ 78

CheesepuffScott(7) _10 __ 05 ___14 ___ 05 __14 __ 16 ____  (6) ___ 03 ___ 02*__ 07 ___ (5) ____ 05 ___ (4) ___ 10 ___ 91

froze .. days (6) ___ 08 ___ 06 ___ 11 ___ 09 __12 __ 10 ____(13) ___08 ___ 07 __ 02 __ (11) ____ 06 ___ (x) __ 14***__ 93

Kirkcaldy Wx (1) __ 12 ___ 10 ___ 02 ___ 15 __ 01*__ 09 ____ (1) ___ 07 ___ 01*__ 16*___(2) ___ 08 ___ ( 1 ) __13 ____94

SepticPegSE12(12)_02*__ 13 ___ 10 ___ 07*__15 __ 12 ___ (11) ___ 04 ___ 03^^_09^^___(9) ___ 09 ___ (8) __ 12 ___ 96

daniel* (3) ________09 ___ 08*___ 01 ___ 06*__ 09 __ 06 ___ (10) __13 ___ 16 __ 11^ _________ 15^  ___ (?) ___05 ___ 99 

B87 (4) ____________15 ___16 ___ 04*___ 01 __16 __ 13 ____  (4) __ 05 ___ 13 __ 08 ___ (4) ____ 04 ___ (3) ___09 ___ 104

Dreckly (2) ________07 ___ 15 ___ 16 ___ 16 __ 02*__ 11*___(16) __ 06 ___ 10 __ 15*___(14)___ 01 __ (13)__08 ____ 107

claret047 (5) ______03 ___ 14 ___ 12 ___ 04 __ 11 __ 07 ____ (9) ___15 ___ 12 __ 13*__ (7) ____ 10 ___ (6) ___07 ____108

Roger J Smith (8) _ 16 ___ 07 ___ 06 ___ 08 __ 05 __ 15 ____(5) ___ 16 ___ 09 __ 14*___ (6) ____ 11 ___ (5) ___ 01___ 108 

StephenSE12 (11)_ 01*__ 12 ___ 13 ___ 02 __ 13 __ 14 ____ (3) ___ 11 ___ 14* __ 01 ____ (x) ____15^ _______ 14^ __110 

bobd29 (9) _______ 14 ___11 ___ 15 ___ 14 __ 10 __ 05 ____ (7) ___ 14 ___ 15*__ 12*___ (3) ____ 03 ___ (2) ___05___ 118

ACTUALS _________ 3 __ 4 Dec __--9.7 _ 18.4 __6.3 __ --2.1 _____ 1 of 10 _ 5.8 _ --2.1 ________ 1 of 5 ____ 1st Jan

____________________________________________________________ (Manchester) ________________ (London) ______

TOTAL SCORES add up all ranks (but not the order of forecast numbers in brackets). 

This result looks remarkably like a golf tournament for all handicap levels. It is also broadly similar to the official

contest format of virtual credits. Daniel* likely to improve if I can get his forecasts for NYD temps. I also assumed

he was last in with the correct NYD snowfall date, so those five scores 01 to 05 in last category could be slightly

out of order. Anyway, nobody's score here is official, it's just interesting to see that the outcome is basically the

same as the virtual credit format. Our host Tom SE12 did better in my scoring format than in his own, and I did worse, 

so that's sort of ironic. Also, while bobd29 is tail gunner in this group, he had best results overall in the recently

completed Netweather CET and EWP forecast contests. 

-**- =============================================================================== -**-

Note: how the Christmas Day snow forecasts were ranked ...

They were ranked by the number of errors, which corresponds to the number of "yes forecasts" adjusted by this observation -- a few correctly said Manchester would see snow. Those were in order of entry, Kirkcaldy Weather, AvengerSE12, Roger J Smith, John Stevens, and Lottiekent. So if your name is not in that group, I added one to the number shown in the first table, and if it is in the group, I subtracted one. Then I applied the scoring by order. There were several ties as to number correct, so in this category I don't show any of them with asterisks. 

For the NYD snow, the same logic applies (London being the correct location, predicted by John Stevens, Roger J Smith Lottiekent and Dreckly). Those four reduce their table A count by one (to maintain number of errors) and the rest increase by one since one of their NAY guesses went YAY. Once adjusted, these numbers were ranked in reverse order with Dreckly having the fewest errors (none).

^ shows ranks not yet settled, missing forecasts that may be available.

^^ shows ranks not yet settled, missing forecasts, and adjusted by virtual credits reported.

*** probably a missed forecast, nothing visible on thread, have made inquiry. subject to change. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 8, 2021 by Roger J Smith