Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

December 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- start of the new contest year for 2020-2021


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Staffordshire moorlands 252m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frosty and fresh
  • Location: Staffordshire moorlands 252m asl

    I'll go for 4.2 and 88mm

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 253
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    On behalf of J10 and myself, welcome to another new competition year with the winter season of 2020-21 fast (?) approaching (??). The contests will include the CET forecast and the (still optional) EW

    2.4c    52mm of snow

    Excel Spreadsheet ->  December 20 CET.xlsx SummaryPDF Format December 20 Summary.pdf Monthly Scores 3 players got 5.0c spot on. SummerShower,  Downburst and 2010cold 37 pla

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    3.9 vs 5.6 for my two methods. I shall split the difference given the cool start.

     

    4.7C, 0.1C above average. 90mm.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Front loaded winter still on cards from way back, but not exclusively so.  Wary of scuppering it...but hey ho...let’s go not too cold then


    3.7c and 100mm

     

    BFTP

     

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    23 hours ago, Daniel* said:

    I got last month epically wrong it really was looking chilly at that point in late October but I’m much more confident at least the first half of December will be below average. It will take something serious in second half for it to be appreciably above average, I’m going with a safer 4.3C colder than 2017. I think it will also be on drier side 68mm.

    Changing my guess dropping it to 3.5C the output looks increasingly cold, precip no change 68mm.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness
  • Location: Shoeburyness
    3 hours ago, seaside 60 said:

    So far out last month it was silly, I supposed I joined the club with everyone else lol 🙂

    4.6c

    76mm

    Big big mistake changing it on latest output but gamble gamble.

    I will change it to 4.1c please with 10 mins to go......

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Thinking back to 2012 and 2017, both returned same values, just above 61-90 mean. However, they were months of two halves, notably 2012. Second half was very mild, so the first half must have been notably cold. First half 2017 also colder than second but less difference, and there was a brief post Christmas cold spell.

    Would be good to know CET means for first halves of these months, especially given people are saying long time since had prospect of cold first half to Dec, short memories...

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    9 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Thinking back to 2012 and 2017, both returned same values, just above 61-90 mean. However, they were months of two halves, notably 2012. Second half was very mild, so the first half must have been notably cold. First half 2017 also colder than second but less difference, and there was a brief post Christmas cold spell.

    Would be good to know CET means for first halves of these months, especially given people are saying long time since had prospect of cold first half to Dec, short memories...

    2.9C and 3.7C I think, 2008 was similar at 2.4C and 1998.

    Edited by summer blizzard
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Table of forecasts ___ December 2020

    ____________________________________________________________________

    The number in brackets is the order of entry, late entries will run L 1-1 to L 3-??

    __CET __ EWP __ FORECASTER _________________________ CET __ EWP __ FORECASTER

    12.0 _ 200.0 __ Lettucing Gutted ( 12 ) ____________4.5 __ 75.0 __ stewfox ( 33 )

    10.3 _ 100.0 __ shillitocettwo ( 06 ) ________________4.5 __ 66.0 __ Mr Maunder ( 39 )

     8.5 __ 94.0 __ virtualsphere ( 10 ) _________________4.5 __ ------ __ Summer Sun ( 46 )

     6.9 __ 72.0 __ karlos1983 ( 72 ) ___________________ 4.5 __ 92.0 __ matt111 ( 54 ) 

     6.8 _ 123.6 __ coldest winter ( 02 ) ________________4.4 __ 90.0 __ bobd29 ( 14 )

     6.2 __ 90.0 __ The_PIT ( 26 ) _______________________4.4 __ 76.0 __ pegg24 ( 25 )

     6.2 __ 75.0 __ syed2878 ( 28 ) _____________________4.4 _ 102.0 __ Federico ( 41 )

     6.2 __ 94.0 __ Joneseye ( 56 ) _____________________ 4.4 __ ------ __ BARRY ( 73 )

     6.1 _ 111.0 __ AWD ( 63 ) _________________________ 4.4 __ 84.0 __ Mulzy ( 75 )

     6.1 __ 78.2 __ Dog Toffee ( 67 ) ___________________ 4.4 __ ------ __ damianslaw ( 81 )

     6.0 _ 100.0 __ Saint Coolio ( 50 ) __________________ 4.4 _ 115.0 __ Don ( 85 )

     5.9 _ 125.0 __ SteveB  ( 01 ) _______________________4.3 __ 51.0 __ prolongedSnowLover ( 13 )

     5.9 __ 95.0 __ earthshine ( 04 ) ____________________4.2 __ ------ __ shuggee ( 82 ) 

     5.9 __ 85.0 __ Stationary Front ( 05 ) ______________4.2 __ 111.0 __ davehsug ( 84 )

     5.9 _ 105.0 __ IRememberAtlantic252 ( 17 ) ______ 4.2 __ 88.0 __ moorlander ( 86 )

     5.9 __ ------ __ Froze were the Days ( 60 ) __________4.1 __ 63.0 __ CheesepuffScott ( 68 )

     5.8 __ 78.0 __ moffat ( 58 ) ________________________4.1 __ 76.0 __ seaside 60 ( 94, 76.5 )

     5.7 __ 90.0 __ Relativistic ( 48 ) ____________________4.0 __ 88.0 __ s4lancia ( 57 )

     5.5 __ 76.0 __ cawsand  ( 51 ) _____________________ 4.0 __ 82.0 __ February1978 ( 93 )

     5.4 _ 101.0 __ snowray ( 71 ) ______________________3.9 __ 78.1 __ Polar Gael ( 15 )

     5.3 _ 104.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard ( 43 ) _____________ 3.9 __ 59.0 __ LetItSnow! ( 16 ) 

     5.3 __ ------ __ Man With Beard ( 83 ) ______________ 3.9 __ 44.0 __ DiagonalRedLine ( 20 )

     5.3 __ ------ __ Mark Bayley ( L2-1 ) ____________________

     5.2 __ 41.0 __ stargazer ( 29 ) _____________________ 3.9 __ ------ __ dancerwithwings ( 79 ) 

     5.2 __ 84.0 __ noname_weather ( 77 ) _____________3.8 __ ------ __ Kentish Man ( 59 )

     5.2 __ 86.0 __ Mark Neal ( 92 ) ____________________ 3.7 __ 44.0 __ NeilN ( 07 )

     5.1 __ 72.7 __ Roger J Smith ( 27 ) _________________ 3.7 __ 73.0 __ stratty( 44 )

     5.1 _ 100.0 __philglossop ( 32 ) ____________________3.7 _ 100.0 __ Blast From the Past ( 90 )

     5.1 __ 75.0 __J10 ( 88 ) _____________________________3.6 __ 56.0 __ Timmytour ( 03 )

     5.0 _ 115.0 __ summer shower ( 09 ) ______________ 3.6 __ 92.0 __ Godber 1 ( 66 )

     5.0 __ 98.0 __ Downburst ( 62 ) ___________________  3.5 __ 68.0 __ daniel* ( 91,37.5 )

     5.0 __ 86.7 __ 2010cold ( 70 ) ______________________ 3.4 __ 96.0 __ Leon1 ( 52 )

     5.0 _ 101.5 __ 1990-2019 average __________________3.4 __ ------ __ Quicksilver1989 ( 76 )

     4.9 _ 102.0 __ summer18 ( 08 ) ____________________3.3 __ 94.0 __ jonboy ( 40 )

     4.9 __ 70.4 __ weather26 ( 30 ) ____________________ 3.3 _ 120.0 __ Fozfoster ( 69 )

     4.9 _ 100.0 __ General Cluster ( 36 ) _______________3.2 __ 87.0 __ Midlands Ice Age ( 45 )

     4.8 __ 75.0 __ DR(S)NO ( 18 ) ______________________ 3.1 _ 109.0 __ Swebby ( 42 )

     4.8 __ 50.0 __ Leo97t ( 21 ) ________________________ 3.1 __ 78.0 __ Emmett Garland ( 74 )

     4.8 __ 70.4 __ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 24 ) ____________ 2.9 __ 49.0 __ Norrance ( 34 )

     4.8 _ 108.0 __ Born From the Void ( 49 ) __________ 2.9 _ 105.0 __ -uksnow- ( 55 ) 

     4.8 __ ------ __ Duncan McAlister ( 95 ) _____________2.8 __ 69.3 __ Walsall Wood Snow ( 31 )

     4.7 __ 62.0 __ weather-history ( 22 ) _______________2.8 __ 88.0 __ SLEETY ( 38 )

     4.7 __ 91.0 __ Reef ( 64 ) __________________________ 2.8 __ 84.0 __ booferking ( 89 )

     4.7 __ ------ __ qwertyK ( 78 ) _______________________2.6 __ 56.0 __ DAVID SNOW ( 35 )

     4.7 __ ------ __ Nigerian Prince ( 80 ) _______________ 2.4 __ 52.0 __ Steve Murr ( 47 )

     4.7 __ 90.0 __ summer blizzard ( 87 ) ______________2.3 __ 69.0 __ Radiating Dendrite ( 23 )

     4.7 _ 111.0 __ surprised weather ( L1-1 ) __________1.9 __ 66.0 __ seabreeze86 ( 61 )

     4.6 _ 102.0 __ JeffC ( 11 ) 

     4.6 __ 46.0 __ Hotspur62 ( 19

     4.6 __ 55.0 __ sundog ( 37 ) 

     4.6 __ 85.0 __ North East Blizzard ( 53 ) 

     4.6 __ ------ __ Typhoon John ( 65 )

     4.6 __ 97.4 __ 1981-2010 average

     4.6 __ 86.0 __ consensus

    _____________________ 

    95 on-time entries, one more is one day late and one is two days late (97 total entries) consensus (median) is 4.6

    Entries received before end of 3rd of December will be added, contest absolute deadline

    is 2359h on the 3rd. 

    ==================================================

    EWP Forecasts in order

    200_LG ... 125_Ste ... 123.6_cw ... 120_Foz ... 115_sumsh, Don ... 111_AWD, dave, surp^  .. 109_sweb ... 108_BFTV ...

    105_IRemA, -uks- ... 104_Feb91 ... 102_sum18, Jeff, fed ... 101.5_90-19avg ... 101_snow ... 100_shil, Phil, GC, StC, BFTP ...

     98_Down ... 97.4_81-10avg ...  96_Leon ... 95_earth ... 94_virt, jon, Jones ... 92_matt, Godb ... 91 Reef ...

     90_bob, PIT, rel, SB ... 88_SLE, s4l, Moor ... 87_MIA ... 86.2_2010cold ... 86_MarkN con ... 85_SF, NEB ... 84_Mul, non, boof ...

     82_Feb78 ... 78.2_DT ... 78.1_PG ... 78_moffat, EG ... 76_peg, caw, sea ... 75_DRS, syed, stew, J10 ... 73_strat ...

     72.7_RJS ... 72_karl ... 70.4_KW, wx26 ... 69.3_WWS ... 69_RD ... 68_dan ... 66_MrM,sb86 ... 63_CPS ... 62_wx-his ...

     59_LIS ... 56_tim, DS ... 55 sundog ... 52_SM ... 51_pSL ... 50_ Leo ... 49_Norr ... 46_hot ... 44_NN, DRL ... 41_star

    _______________________________________________________________

    82 on-time forecasts, plus one marked one day late (^) consensus (median) of 83 forecasts is 86.0 mm.

    ==========================================================================================

    An almost equal number of forecasts went above or below the 1981-2010 mean, with five on that mark (4.6) and 45 above it,

    with 46 choosing a below (1981-2010) normal outcome. The somewhat warmer 1990-2019 mean (5.0) had three supporters,

    65 below and 28 above. Of those, five chose the never-recorded 5.9. Only three went above 7.0 into the really mild range. 

    Nobody foresees as cold an outcome as 2010 or even 1981, with 1.9 our coldest forecast. 

    The consensus in the EWP was somewhat below average, with only 24 of 83 going above the 1981-2010 average value of

    97.4 mm, seven of those not going above the 1990-2019 average of 101.4 mm. In colder than average winter months, a

    a month with even half the normal precip where a lot of that is snow gets a very significant snowfall. An above normal precip

    month that was mostly snow would produce huge amounts of snow by UK standards, something like a heavy lake effect

    month might do (100 mm precip = 100 cm snow if the liquid equivalent is 10:1, and sometimes it's higher meaning you would

    get an even greater depth for that 100 mm). 

    Good luck to all especially newcomers and returning occasional visitors.

     .. .. .. keep on forecasting throughout the contest year if you can.

    (these are annual contests, not just a one time December thing ... last year 80% of our new forecasters 

    only showed up in December, about five or six made it through a full year, a few others made occasional

    appearances). 

     

    Edited by Roger J Smith
    adding some missing entries to EWP list, revised consensus EWP
    • Thanks 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    22 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

    2.9C and 3.7C I think, 2008 was similar at 2.4C and 1998.

    Thanks for these figures, surprised first half of 1998 was so low, don't remember much colder weather apart from a brief northerly shot first weekend. Second half must have been very mild to cancel it out, indeed I remember second half being very wet and stormy.

    2008 echoed 2012 and 2017 to a certain extent, there was a very mild spell run up to christmas but it was shortlived, and the last week was cold. I enjoyed 2008 just would have much preferred the mild run up to christmas tohave happened first 10 days of the month, it was frustrating seeing all the snow and cold weather disappear mid-month, and no white cold christmas. The last week though was very good, and the first week Jan was very cold and frosty. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    1981-2010 CET normals and daily records (1772 to 2019)

    ... since we have a few new entrants to our CET and EWP forecast contests, this table will be the basis for some daily reports you'll be seeing from Summer Sun, who will post the running CET values (first to previous day's date as reported here ...

    http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

    and while they still use 1961-90 data for their anomalies, we also have 1981-2010 available in this table. Column 2 shows you the daily averages while column 3 shows the mean running CET to that date. Columns 4 and 5 show the all-time record values for daily mean CET (the average of max and min, obviously the max and min go a bit outside these values). And the final two columns show the highest and lowest values that any month since 1772 has managed to set for running CET. 

    From that you can see how 2010 moved into first place from about 21st to 30th, jostling with 1878, and coldest Dec 1890 only held the title on the last day. The lowest running CET any month of December ever managed to reach was 7th and 8th of Dec 1879 (two days around -3.65). To be more clear, that was the mean for the interval 1st to 7th and 8th Dec 1879. Often for other months the coldest running mean will be the record low for the first, but in this case not so, the record low for 1st Dec being only -3.0. Some November days were lower than that. Note that it was in 1947, the people back then must have been thinking oh no, here we go again, but most of that winter turned mild (Jan 1948 set some record highs in fact). 

    Meanwhile, I will update the EWP tracker information based on latest available data on Hadley EWP site and 24h rainfall maps on meteociel to bring them right up to the latest possible time (as they are reported about 1-2 days after the fact on the Hadley website). Here's a link to that:

    http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/charts/charts.html

    One other thing, in case you hadn't worked this out, J10 is your host for CET forecasts and scores them at end of month. I am your host for EWP. So direct any questions you might have about scoring or reporting issues to the person in charge in each case. Thanks. 

     

     ____________________ Daily record values _______ Extremes of running CET

    DATE ___ CET __ CET cum _____ MAX _______ MIN _______ MAX _______ MIN

    01 _____ 5.8 ___ 5.8 ______ 12.1 (1775) ___ --3.0 (1947) ____ 12.1 (1775) __ --3.0 (1947)

    02 _____ 5.8 ___ 5.8 ______ 12.2 (1985) ___ --4.7 (1796) ____ 11.1 (1775) __ --3.4 (1796)

    03 _____ 6.0 ___ 5.9 ______ 12.2 (1985) ___ --4.0 (1879) ____ 10.9 (1985) __ --3.1 (1879)

    04 _____ 6.1 ___ 5.9 ______ 12.1 (1888) ___ --3.8 (1879,1925) _10.9 (1985) __ --3.2 (1879)

    05 _____ 6.1 ___ 6.0 ______ 12.6 (1898) ___ --3.7 (1844) ____ 10.6 (1985) __ --3.2 (1879)

    06 _____ 5.0 ___ 5.8 ______ 12.3 (1898) ___ --5.5 (1844) ____ 10.7 (1898) __ --3.3 (1879)

    07 _____ 4.8 ___ 5.7 ______ 12.3 (1856) ___ --5.7 (1879) ____ 10.3 (2015) __ --3.64(1879)

    08 _____ 4.4 ___ 5.5 ______ 12.1 (1856) ___ --5.4 (1807) ____ 10.4 (2015) __ --3.65(1879)

    09 _____ 4.5 ___ 5.4 ______ 11.8 (1934) ___ --4.0 (1803) ____ 10.1 (2015) __ --3.2 (1879)

    10 _____ 4.3 ___ 5.3 ______ 10.9 (1997) ___ --4.5 (1784) ____ 9.9 (1979, 2015)_--2.8 (1879)

    11 _____ 4.2 ___ 5.2 ______ 12.6 (1994) ___ --6.7 (1784) ____ 9.7 (1898,2000)_--2.8 (1879)

    12 _____ 4.2 ___ 5.1 ______ 12.9 (1994) ___ --8.5 (1981) _____ 9.9 (2000) __ --2.7 (1879)

     13 _____ 4.6 ___ 5.1 ______ 11.6 (1918) ___ --6.5 (1981) _____ 9.7 (2000) __ --2.4 (1879)

    14 _____ 4.4 ___ 5.0 ______ 11.8 (1912) ___ --5.3 (1878) _____ 9.4 (2000) __ --2.1 (1879)

    15 _____ 4.6 ___ 5.0 ______ 11.2 (1985) ___ --5.4 (1788) _____ 9.2 (1898) __ --1.6 (1879)

    16 _____ 4.6 ___ 5.0 ______ 11.4 (2015) ___ --6.6 (1859) _____ 9.1 (2015) __ --1.3 (1879)

    17 _____ 4.4 ___ 4.9 ______ 12.5 (2015) ___ --7.7 (1859) _____ 9.3 (2015) __ --1.3 (1879)

    18 _____ 4.4 ___ 4.9 ______ 12.5 (2015) ___ --7.1 (1859) _____ 9.5 (2015) __ --1.2 (1879)

    19 _____ 4.3 ___ 4.9 ______ 13.1 (2015) ___ --6.8 (2010) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.1 (1879)

    20 _____ 3.7 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.1 (1833) ___ --7.0 (2010) _____ 9.7 (2015) __--0.9 (1878,79)

    21 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.4 (1971) ___ --5.9 (2010) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.0 (1878, 2010)

    22 _____ 4.5 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.6 (1991) ___ --6.8 (1890) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.0 (1878, 2010)

    23 _____ 4.7 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.8 (1991) ___ --6.4 (1870) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.1 (1878, 2010)

    24 _____ 4.7 ___ 4.8 ______ 10.7 (1843) ___ --6.9 (1870) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.3 (1878)

    25 _____ 4.5 ___ 4.8 ___ 10.4 (1824,1983) _--10.8 (1796) _____ 9.6 (2015) __ --1.5 (1878)

    26 _____ 4.3 ___ 4.7 ______ 11.0 (2011) ___ --5.4 (1798) _____ 9.6 (2015) __ --1.4 (1878, 2010)

    27 _____ 3.9 ___ 4.7 ______ 10.9 (2015) ___ --8.4 (1798) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.4 (2010)

    28 _____ 4.1 ___ 4.7 ______ 11.5 (1987) ___ --8.2 (1798) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.3 (2010)

    29 _____ 3.9 ___ 4.7 ______ 12.0 (1987) ___ --4.9 (1874) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.1 (2010)

    30 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.6 ______ 11.0 (1834) ___ --6.1 (1870) _____ 9.8 (2015) __ --0.9 (2010)

    31 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.6 ______ 11.1 (1859) ___ --7.1 (1783) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --0.8 (1890)

    ________________________________________________________________ 

    So from this we see that 2015 had one crack at being warmest Dec (7th to 10th), fell out of first place for a while, then resumed the lead from 16th to end of month. The closest to 2015 that any year came after the 20th was 8.7 (1898 - 21st). As for 2010, it moved into first by the 21st, had a running battle with 1878, shook that off but got nipped at the very end by 1890 which never held the lead at any other stage. Other noteworthy late negative running CET values would include 1788 which was -0.4 on 23rd and -0.3 on 30th-31st, 1796 which was running at -1.0 from 26th to 28th, 1844 which was -0.2 on 25th, 1879 held on at -0.4 to 25th, and more recently 1981 was running at -0.2 from 24th to 27th (finished 0.3). 

    Edited by Roger J Smith
    • Thanks 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    It's interesting that Dec 2015 is also the warmest on record for both Toronto (181 years of data) and NYC (152). It moved ahead by similar margins too. At Toronto, Dec 2015 averaged 5.2, while the previous high was 3.2 (2011). At NYC (Central Park) Dec 2015 averaged 10.4, the same month (2011) was second there but a full 3.7 C deg cooler at 6.7. Both of these locations need an urban heat island correction to compare to early period data but after applying that correction these months remain 1-2 anyway, albeit some earlier ones move into the top ten.

    Not hard to see that something very unusual was happening in the western hemisphere generally speaking in Dec 2015, and it certainly began in Nov 2015 which was also very mild in all these areas although not top November in any (this past November has moved into first place for NYC and fourth for Toronto which had its warmest Nov in 1975). 

    Perhaps a key event was the northward heat transfer achieved by super-hurricane Patricia which moved into Mexico from the Pacific around Oct 24 and spawned a deep low over the Gulf of Mexico which then moved through the Great Lakes region on the 28th giving Toronto a record daily rainfall. 

    After that, it seems that very warm weather for time of year persisted anywhere to the east of this low's track, for about three months. The warm spell was absurd in some places, southeast Virginia had readings in the mid-80s (F) around Christmas 2015. The spell broke down with a very heavy snowstorm across the eastern U.S., places around Washington DC had 25-30 inch amounts from this (in mid-January 2016). The UK warmth persisted longer, with late January 2016 setting new daily records and tying the monthly CET (daily mean) record. 

    Another key antecedent event may have been the polar vortex winters of 2014 and 2015. In the second of these (2014-15) temperatures were exceptionally cold in February 2015 in eastern and central North America. It was the third coldest February on record at Toronto even before heat island correction applied (that did not move it past 1, 2 which are 1875 and 1885). The weather stayed rather cold in North America for most of 2015 until that reversal mentioned in Nov and Dec. Possibly a factor where in this warming climate any sustained cold regime like that must be holding back a considerable building reserve of warmth to come, sort of like throwing ice cubes into a pot of almost boiling water. 

    On the other hand, Dec 2010 was not as particularly cold in North America although it was slightly colder than recent averages (Toronto -2.8, rank overall was tied 70th coldest out of 180, adjusted by urban heat island, moved to tied 49th coldest. The winter went on to produce a number of memorable snowstorms however, which is rare in recent decades. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    5.1c to the 2nd

    Bang on the 61 to 90 average

    0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___

    No update on the 1st

    Edited by Summer Sun
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex

    Dissapointed there's basically no snow in south Essex, but north Essex and Cambridgeshire and parts of Norfolk are quite snowy! It's settled in places like Cambridge, Braintree and Colchester.  

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    4.8c to the 3rd

    0.4c below the 61 to 90 average
    1.1c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month* 5.1c on the 2nd
    Current low this month* 4.8c on the 3rd

    *No update on the 1st

    • Thanks 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    The table shows 4.7 for the 1st, so you could amend that to read current low 4.7 on the 1st. 

    Meanwhile EWP is slow to update too, but precip maps for 2nd and 3rd appear to show 15-20 mm already, with 30-40 indicated for the next ten days and probably 10-20 after that to end of GFS. That's a total of 55-80 mm with the month two thirds done, looking like wetter forecasts may verify (pun or what? it's all Greek to me). 

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    4.5c to the 4th

    0.9c below the 61 to 90 average
    1.4c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 5.1c on the 2nd
    Current low this month 4.5c on the 4th

     

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...