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December 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- start of the new contest year for 2020-2021


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On behalf of J10 and myself, welcome to another new competition year with the winter season of 2020-21 fast (?) approaching (??). The contests will include the CET forecast and the (still optional) EW

2.4c    52mm of snow

Excel Spreadsheet ->  December 20 CET.xlsx SummaryPDF Format December 20 Summary.pdf Monthly Scores 3 players got 5.0c spot on. SummerShower,  Downburst and 2010cold 37 pla

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Gonna to put my foot down and go for a below average December. I feel it could also be quite dry and chilly. Perhaps a bit of wintry weather at times. Becoming milder towards the end.

3.9*C and 44mm of rain and snow. Tar!

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After being a mile off in November going for 6.2C 90mm of rain.

We've only had one winter which had cool months after a Dec of over 6C.  So hoping to be wrong.

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17 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

5.1 and 72.7 mm -- bit of everything perhaps. 

As long as that includes a bit of snow (for the south too)! 😉

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Will wait until Monday, might be one of those very variable months cold and mild fluctuations, with a marked north south split, north seeing more sustained cold, south and therefore much of the CET zone seeing shorter lived cold, but shall see. It's very tricky one to call, lots of possibilities..

A word on Dec 2015, how exceptional and extreme, a whopping 9.7 degrees over 1.5 degrees warmer than next warmest December, phenomenal all down to that super El Nino, not looking forward to the next one!

Edited by damianslaw
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I am just compiling the results of the November CET and noticed queries about the rules of the CET part of the competition.

Entries received before the final day of the previous month have no penalty points. i.e. for December, by 2359 on the 30th November.

Entries received on the 1st December (or 1st day of competition) month have a 5 point penalty.
Entries received on the 2nd December (or 2nd day of competition) month have a 10 point penalty.
Entries received on the 3rd December (or 3rd day of competition) month have a 15 point penalty.

You are allowed to make a late entry in any situation, whether or not you have previously entered.

However as Roger has said below, it is only worth changing your entry if you think newer charts make your previous entry significantly out.

On 02/11/2020 at 21:15, Roger J Smith said:

I sent mb018538 a private message indicating my thoughts about changing but in general please note, J10 makes decisions about CET issues, I just tabulate the entries and then run and score the EWP contests. So basically I don't even know if late edits are acceptable in the CET portion, I have allowed them for EWP with late penalties applied, and I have posted one or two requested CET amendments over the years in the tables of entries (it rarely happens), but then I actually don't know if they were allowed or ignored because J10 makes up his scoring tables and then uses my table of entries as a sort of quality control feature to check accuracy of his own compilation, so he would have come across the original forecasts and then the posts requesting a change but whether he allowed them or not, I honestly don't know, as I never looked into the CET scoring tables to find out. Maybe he will let us know if his policy is to allow them with a late penalty or not to allow them. Once I've tabulated the CET forecasts, I make no further use of the information and I just go to the CET tables for annual rank information if I want to cross-reference them with EWP, I don't look at the actual mechanics of how those CET ranks were derived because I don't need to know. I think I understand the system but my impression is that the late penalties are not as punitive as the EWP 0.2 out of 10 per day. Aren't they something like 0.1 per day, but against what, an annual average? This is something I don't factor in when I report on best combined forecast, for instance, the 10.5 set in October had eight forecasters in it and three of them had late penalties, were they really 6th, 7th and 8th in points for the month or did they fall behind one or two of the non-penalized 10.4 and 10.6 forecasts? In the EWP section, being late one day usually means you will drop one rank lower because the scoring intervals are almost always a bit smaller than the daily penalties. A person who is three days late could be 3-4 ranks lower (higher numbers, I hate rank terminology!). 

In general, you'll find that the CET ranks are a little more lenient towards 10-11 out of 12 contest entrants than EWP which simply adds up all scores, today I did indicate averages for those who hadn't entered all eleven, and I might try to work out a scoring system that gives a bit of a boost to those who have a good average and miss one month. On the other hand, if you miss three CET contests you are relegated to second table no matter what your points total, and in the EWP you cruise along with your points and can be ranked fairly well even if you've only played 7 or 8 out of 11-12. There's probably no perfect way to do this, the perfect solution would be if everyone always entered, which is out of our control. 

Edited by J10
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On 24/11/2020 at 13:51, Earthshine said:

5 years since you underestimated the December CET!  Wonder if you'll be under again this year?... 😂

I think its a long time since he underestimated any CET - can't see it happening again any time soon, maybe if this is still going in the 30's then he might, but wonder if he will adjust upwards when we get to that point in order to take into account climate change, in order to guard against finishing low, mind you the last time i went for a genuine cold month was for feb 2019 i think.

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By the way, since that discussion of CET late penalties was just quoted here, I should add that later on in the discussion (which was in the Nov thread) I mentioned that I had worked out that in fact the CET late penalties are if anything a little more punitive than the EWP late penalties, and if you wanted a round number, I would say don't take a late penalty to advance by four ranks per day would be a good general rule. In other words, if the revision you propose to make does not gain you four positions against the outcome, you're throwing points away by taking the late penalty. And that is per day, so a three day late penalty would need to improve you by 12 positions to be worth the risk. For the EWP it's more like a two to three rank per day metric for this, complicated by however many duplicate entries are in your zone because if you tag on to duplicate entries, you lose a bit less than if you go solo. I am thinking about perhaps adjusting the EWP scoring to be more similar to CET scoring now that I understand it better from my research. You get rewards for being on the right side of normal and there's an adjustment factor in the accuracy points for being close but edged out by a lot of other forecasts, that doesn't factor into my rather simple scoring system. On the other hand, a simple scoring system suits my simple mind rather well. I think what I might do is to run a more complex scoring system back against this last year's contest and see if it makes any big differences to the rank order, then decide on that basis. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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I got last month epically wrong it really was looking chilly at that point in late October but I’m much more confident at least the first half of December will be below average. It will take something serious in second half for it to be appreciably above average, I’m going with a safer 4.3C colder than 2017. I think it will also be on drier side 68mm.

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