December 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- start of the new contest year for 2020-2021

[Roger J Smith]

(post edited after re-scoring EWP from 159.2 mm final outcome)

EWP had reached 156 mm to 30th, yesterday's addition looks to be either 0 or 1 mm, will report the final tracker number tomorrow morning around 0800h when it's posted, then the scoring table is ready to go except for any slight movement required for LG who had already moved up to t-10th as of 154 mm. Expect his finish will be 6th place. (edit -- he moved up to 4th).

The CET outcome makes the best combined forecast that of Summer Shower (1st CET, 5th EWP), which at 6 combined ranking points is now 7th all-time (37 forecast months) with one at (1,1), and three at (2,2) or (1,3). Then there are two entries from Aug 2018, one of which was 1st CET, 4th EWP, the other was 3rd, 2nd.

Summer Shower's effort is also the best combined forecast since Nov 2019. In the entire contest year 2019-2020 just ended, the best combined rank totals were 9 (KW in Feb, Godber1 in April). 

The six efforts that are ahead of this month's result are

1. Midlands Ice Age (1st, 1st) in Oct 2018

t2. Polar Gael (2nd, 2nd) in May 2018

t2. nn2013 (NeilN) (2nd, 2nd) in Oct 2018

t2. Don (1st CET, 3rd EWP) in Nov 2018

t5 Alexis J9 (1st CET, 4th EWP) Aug 2018

t5 syed2878 (3rd CET, 2nd EWP) Aug 2018

then list continues with

t7 Summer Shower (1st CET, 5th EWP) Dec 2020

and top ten rounded out with 

t7 stargazer (1st CET, 5th EWP) Jan 2018

t7 Feb1991Blizzard (4th CET, 2nd EWP) Dec 2018

10 Let It Snow! (4th CET, 3rd EWP) June 2018

Edited January 5, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

EWP tracker ticked over to 157 mm (edit -- final table value 159.2). This is the 14th wettest December in 255 years of records (1766-2020), with 15th place 1979 at 159.1 mm. Since then, the only Decembers wetter are 10th place 1993 (172.1 mm), and 7th wettest 2012 (175.2). Dec 1978 was also in the group ahead of this year in 13th place at 172.8 mm.

With this result, the December EWP contest scoring would be as follows (copied from earlier post with slight edits)

Note, the ranking stat has been tweaked to allow top 20 to gain some ground from their relatively accurate forecasts, this now drops at half the rate applied in version one, and that's the end of the tinkering I plan to do in order to get EWP scoring more consistent with the CET forecast contest model. If you missed the discussion about that, it's back on page seven of the thread around middle of the month. To save you a long read, the basic new philosophy is to tweak the simplified scoring used in previous years to reward accuracy, high ranked forecasts, and being on the right side of normal. Also the late penalties are now somewhat more severe and I reduced the easy slide for duplicate forecasts while keeping that feature at 2/3rds of the otherwise standard interval drops. In this case, standard drops are 0.12 and duplicate drops are 0.08 (would have been 0.06 in the "old system." ... the scoring subtracts rather than adds so that the top forecast always starts off from 10.0 (unless the most accurate forecast is late, then nobody scores 10.0 -- that has yet to happen in the EWP contest). 

December 2020 EWP scoring report (preliminary)

Int score: your interval score, with duplicate entry deduction where applicable

rank, acc, norm, late -- all other deductions, rank rewards top 20 by smaller but increasing deductions to 0.10, accuracy rewards relatively small percentage errors in increasing groups to a maximum of 0.05 deduction (50% larger error than leader), norm rewards predictions on right side of normal (sliding scale near the 1981-2010 normal), 0.06 deductions for wrong side of normal ... and late penalty applied to one forecast is 0.30 per day. The "old system" score is what the contest result would have been using previous years' simpler sliding scale (it's the same as your interval score except for duplicate entries).

__ Final version (5 Jan 2021) based on 159.2 mm EWP in tables __

 

Rank __ Forecaster _____________ Fcst ___ Err ___ % err __ Int score __ rank__acc__norm__late __ Total score __ (old system)

_ 01 ___ SteveB _________________ 125.0 _ -34.2 ___21.5 _____ 10.0 __ -0.00_ -0.00_ -0.00_ -0.00 __10.00 ____ 10.00

_ 02 ___ coldest winter __________123.6 _ -35.6 ___22.5 _____ 9.88 __ -0.01_ -0.00_ -0.00_ -0.00 ___ 9.87 _____ 9.88

_ 03 ___ Fozfoster _______________120.0 _ -39.2 ___24.8 _____ 9.76 __ -0.01_ -0.00_ -0.00_ -0.00 ___ 9.75 _____ 9.76

_ 04 __ Lettucing Gutted ________ 200.0 _ +40.8 __ 26.3 _____9.64 __ -0.02_ -0.00 _ -0.00_ -0.00___ 9.62 _____ 9.64

_ 05 ___ summer shower ________115.0 _ -44.2 __ 27.9 _____ 9.52 __ -0.02_ -0.00_ -0.00_ -0.00 ___ 9.50 _____ 9.52

_ 06 ___ Don _______________ (2) _ 115.0 _ -44.2 __ 27.9 _____ 9.44 __ -0.02_ -0.00_ -0.00_ -0.00 ___ 9.42 _____ 9.46

_ 07 ___ AWD ____________________111.0 _ -48.2 __ 30.4 _____ 9.28 __ -0.03_ -0.00_ -0.00_ -0.00 ___ 9.25 _____ 9.28

_ 08 ___ davehsug __________ (2) _111.0 _ -48.2 __ 30.4 _____ 9.20 __ -0.03_ -0.00_ -0.00_ -0.00 ___ 9.17 _____ 9.22

_ 09 ___ swebby ________________ 109.0 _ -50.2 __ 31.6 _____ 8.92 __ -0.04_ -0.01_ -0.00_ -0.00 ___ 8.87 _____ 8.92

_ 10 ___ Surprised Weather _ (3) _111.0 _ -48.2 __ 30.4 _____ 9.12 __ -0.03_ -0.00_ -0.00_ -0.30 ___ 8.79 _____ 8.96

_ 11 ___ Born From the Void ____ 108.0 _ -51.2 __ 32.2 _____ 8.80 __ -0.05_ -0.01_ -0.00_ -0.00 ___ 8.74 _____ 8.80

_ 12 ___ I Remember Atl 252 ____ 105.0 _ -54.2 __ 34.1 _____ 8.68 __ -0.05_ -0.01 _ -0.00_ -0.00 ___ 8.62 _____ 8.68

_ 13 ___ --uksnow-- _________ (2) _ 105.0 _ -54.2 __ 34.1 _____ 8.60 __ -0.05_ -0.01 _ -0.00_ -0.00 ___ 8.54 _____ 8.62

_ 14 ___ Feb1991Blizzard ________ 104.0 _ -55.2 __ 34.8 _____ 8.43 __ -0.06_ -0.01_ -0.00_ -0.00 ___ 8.36 _____ 8.43

_ 15 ___ summer18 ______________ 102.0 _ -57.2 __ 35.7 _____ 8.31 __ -0.07_ -0.01_ -0.00_ -0.00 ___ 8.23 _____ 8.31

_ 16 ___ JeffC ________________ (2) _ 102.0 _ -57.2 __ 35.7 _____ 8.23 __ -0.07_ -0.01_ -0.00_ -0.00 ___ 8.15 _____ 8.25

_ 17 ___ Federico ____________ (3) _ 102.0 _ -57.2 __ 35.7 _____ 8.15 __ -0.07_ -0.01_ -0.00_ -0.00 ___ 8.07 _____ 8.19

_(18)___ 1990-2019 avg ___________101.5 _ -57.7 __ 36.2 _____ 8.01 __ -0.08_ -0.01_ -0.00_ -0.00 ___ 7.92 _____ 8.01

_ 18 ___ snowray _________________ 101.0 _ -58.2 __ 36.6 _____ 7.95 __ -0.08_ -0.01_ -0.00_ -0.00 ___ 7.86 _____ 7.95

_ 19 ___ shillitocettwo ____________ 100.0 _ -59.2 __ 37.1 _____ 7.83 __ -0.09_ -0.01_ -0.01_ -0.00 ___ 7.72 _____ 7.83

_ 20 ___ Philglossop __________ (2) _100.0 _ -59.2 __ 37.1 _____ 7.75 __ -0.09_ -0.01_ -0.01_ -0.00 ___ 7.64 _____ 7.77

_ 21 ___ General Cluster ______(3) _100.0 _ -59.2 __ 37.1 ______7.67 __ -0.09_ -0.01_ -0.01_ -0.00 ___ 7.56 _____ 7.71

_ 22 ___ St Coolio _____________(4) _100.0 _ -59.2 __ 37.1 ______7.59 __ -0.09_ -0.01_ -0.01_ -0.00 ___ 7.48 _____ 7.65

_ 23 ___ Blast From the Past __(5) _100.0 _ -59.2 __ 37.1 ______7.51 __ -0.09_ -0.01_ -0.01_ -0.00 ___ 7.40 _____ 7.59 

_ 24 ___ Downburst ________________98.0 _ -61.2 __ 38.4 ______ 7.22 __ -0.10_ -0.01_ -0.02_ -0.00 ___ 7.09 _____ 7.22

_(25)___ 1981-2010 avg ____________ 97.4 _ -61.8 __ 38.6 ______ 7.16 _ -0.10_ -0.01_ -0.03_ -0.00 ___ 7.04 _____ 7.16

_ 25 ___ Leon1 _____________________ 96.0 _ -63.2 __ 39.8 ______ 7.10 _ -0.10_ -0.01_ -0.04_ -0.00 ___ 6.95 _____ 7.10

_ 26 ___ earthshine _________________95.0 _ -64.2 __ 40.3 ______ 6.98 _ -0.10_ -0.01_ -0.05_ -0.00 ___ 6.82 _____ 6.98

_ 27 ___ virtualsphere ______________ 94.0 _ -65.2 __ 40.9 ______ 6.86 _ -0.10_ -0.01_ -0.06_ -0.00 ___ 6.68 _____ 6.86

_ 28 ___ jonboy ________________ (2) _ 94.0 _ -65.2 __ 40.9 ______ 6.78 _ -0.10_ -0.01_ -0.06_ -0.00 ___ 6.60 _____ 6.80

_ 29 ___ Joneseye ______________ (3) _ 94.0 _ -65.2 __ 40.9 ______ 6.70 _ -0.10_ -0.01_ -0.06_ -0.00 ___ 6.52 _____ 6.74

_ 30 ___ matt 111 ___________________92.0 _ -67.2 __ 42.2 ______ 6.50 _ -0.10_ -0.01_ -0.06_ -0.00 ___ 6.33 _____ 6.50

_ 31 ___ Godber1 ______________ (2) _ 92.0 _ -67.2 __ 42.2 ______ 6.42 _ -0.10_ -0.01_ -0.06_ -0.00 ___ 6.25 _____ 6.44

_ 32 ___ Reef _______________________ 91.0 _ -68.2 __ 42.7 ______ 6.25 _ -0.10_ -0.02_ -0.06_ -0.00 ___ 6.07 _____ 6.25

_ 33 ___ bobd29 ____________________ 90.0 _ -69.2 __ 43.3 ______ 6.13 _ -0.10_ -0.02_ -0.06_ -0.00 ___ 5.95 _____ 6.13

_ 34 ___ The PIT ________________ (2) _ 90.0 _ -69.2 __ 43.3 ______ 6.05 _ -0.10_ -0.02_ -0.06_ -0.00 ___ 5.87 _____ 6.07

_ 35 ___ relativistic _____________ (3) _ 90.0 _ -69.2 __ 43.3 ______ 5.97 _ -0.10_ -0.02_ -0.06_ -0.00 ___ 5.79 _____ 6.01

_ 36 ___ Summer Blizzard ______ (4) _ 90.0 _ -69.2 __ 43.3 ______ 5.89 _ -0.10_ -0.02_ -0.06_ -0.00 ___ 5.71 _____ 5.95

_ 37 ___ SLEETY _____________________ 88.0 _ -71.2 __ 44.6 ______ 5.65 _ -0.10_ -0.02_ -0.06_ -0.00 ___ 5.47 _____ 5.65

_ 38 ___ s4lancia _______________ (2) _ 88.0 _ -71.2 __ 44.6 ______ 5.57 _ -0.10_ -0.02_ -0.06_ -0.00 ___ 5.39 _____ 5.59

_ 39 ___ Moorlander ___________ (3) _ 88.0 _ -71.2 __ 44.6 ______ 5.49 _ -0.10_ -0.02_ -0.06_ -0.00 ___ 5.31 _____ 5.53

_ 40 ___ Midlands Ice Age ___________ 87.0 _ -72.2 __ 45.2 ______ 5.29 _ -0.10_ -0.02_ -0.06_ -0.00 ___ 5.11 _____ 5.29

_ 41 ___ 2010cold ___________________ 86.2 _ -73.0 __ 45.7 ______ 5.16 _ -0.10_ -0.02_ -0.06_ -0.00 ___ 4.98 _____ 5.16

_ 42 ___ Mark Neal _(+ con) _________ 86.0 _ -73.2 __ 45.8 ______ 5.04 _ -0.10_ -0.02_ -0.06_ -0.00 ___ 4.86 _____ 5.04

_ 43 ___ Stationary Front ____________ 85.0 _ -74.2 __ 46.4 ______ 4.92 _ -0.10_ -0.02_ -0.06_ -0.00 ___ 4.74 _____ 4.92

_ 44 ___ Northeast Blizzard _____ (2) _ 85.0 _ -74.2 __ 46.4 ______ 4.84 _ -0.10_ -0.02_ -0.06_ -0.00 ___ 4.66 _____ 4.86

_ 45 ___ Mulzy _______________________ 84.0 _ -75.2 __ 47.1 ______ 4.68 _ -0.10_ -0.02_ -0.06_ -0.00 ___ 4.50 _____ 4.68

_ 46 ___ noname_weather ______ (2) _ 84.0 _ -75.2 __ 47.1 ______ 4.60 _ -0.10_ -0.02_ -0.06_ -0.00 ___ 4.42 _____ 4.62

_ 47 __ Booferking ______________ (3) _ 84.0 _ -75.2 __ 47.1 ______ 4.52 _ -0.10_ -0.02_ -0.06_ -0.00 ___ 4.34 _____ 4.56

_ 48 __ February 1978 _______________ 82.0 _ -77.2 __ 48.3 ______ 4.32 _ -0.10_ -0.02_ -0.06_ -0.00 ___ 4.14 _____ 4.32

_ 49 __ Dog Toffee __________________ 78.2 _ -81.0 __ 50.8 _______ 4.20 _ -0.10_ -0.02 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 4.02 _____ 4.20

_ 50 __ Polar Gael ___________________ 78.1 _ -81.1 __ 50.9 _______ 4.08 _ -0.10_ -0.02 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 3.90 _____ 4.08

_ 51 __ moffat _______________________ 78.0 _ -81.2 __ 51.0 ________3.95 _-0.10_ -0.02 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 3.77 _____ 3.95

_ 52 __ Emmett Garland _________ (2) _78.0 _ -81.2 __ 51.0 _______ 3.87 _-0.10_ -0.02 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 3.69 _____ 3.89

_ 53 __ pegg24 _______________________ 76.0 _ -83.2 __ 52.2 _______3.71 _-0.10_ -0.03 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 3.52 _____ 3.71

_ 54 __ cawsand _________________ (2) _ 76.0 _ -83.2 __ 52.2 _______3.63 _-0.10_ -0.03 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 3.44 _____ 3.65

_ 55 __ seaside60 ________________ (3) _76.0 _ -83.2 __ 52.2 _______ 3.55 _-0.10_ -0.03 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 3.36 _____ 3.59

_ 56 __ DR(S)NO ______________________ 75.0 _ -84.2 __ 52.8 _______3.35 _-0.10_ -0.03 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 3.16 _____ 3.35

_ 57 __ syed2878 ________________ (2) _ 75.0 _ -84.2 __ 52.8 _______3.27 _-0.10_ -0.03 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 3.08 _____ 3.29

_ 58 __ stewfox __________________ (3) _ 75.0 _ -84.2 __ 52.8 _______3.19 _-0.10_ -0.03 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 3.00 _____ 3.23

_ 59 __ J 10 ______________________ (4) _ 75.0 _ -84.2 __ 52.8 _______ 3.11 _-0.10_ -0.03 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 2.92 _____ 3.17

_ 60 __ stratty ________________________ 73.0 _ -86.2 __ 54.1 ________2.87 _-0.10_ -0.03 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 2.68 _____ 2.87

_ 61 __ Roger J Smith _________________72.7 _ -86.5 __ 54.3 _______ 2.74 _-0.10_ -0.03 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 2.55 _____ 2.74

_ 62 __ karlos1983 ___________________ 72.0 _ -87.2 __ 54.7 ______ 2.62 _-0.10_ -0.03 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 2.43 _____ 2.62

_ 63 __ Kirkcaldy Weather ____________70.4 _ -88.8 __ 55.7 ______ 2.50 _-0.10_ -0.03 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 2.31 _____ 2.50

_ 64 __ weather 26 _____________ (2) __ 70.4 _ -88.8 __ 55.7 ______ 2.42 _-0.10_ -0.03 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 2.23 _____ 2.44

_ 65 __ Walsall Wood Snow __________ 69.3 _ -89.9 __ 56.5 _______2.24 _-0.10_ -0.03 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 2.05 _____ 2.24

_ 66 __ Radiating Dendrite ___________ 69.0 _ -90.2 __ 56.7 _______2.12 _-0.10_ -0.03 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 1.93 _____ 2.12

_ 67 __ daniel* _______________________ 68.0 _ -90.2 __ 57.4 _______2.00 _-0.10_ -0.03 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 1.81 _____ 2.00

_ 68 __ Mr Maunder _________________ 66.0 _ -93.2 __ 58.8 _______1.88 _-0.10_ -0.03 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 1.69 _____ 1.88

_ 69 __ seabreeze86 ____________ (2) _ 66.0 _ -93.2 __ 58.8 _______1.80 _-0.10_ -0.03 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 1.61 _____ 1.82

_ 70 __ CheesepuffScott _____________ 63.0 _ -96.2 __ 60.7 _______1.64 _-0.10_ -0.03 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 1.45 _____ 1.64

_ 71 __ weather-history ______________62.0 _ -97.2 __ 61.3 _______1.51 _-0.10_ -0.03 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 1.32 _____ 1.51

_ 72 __ Let It Snow! __________________59.0 _-100.2 __ 63.3 _______ 1.39 _-0.10_ -0.04 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 1.21*_____1.39

_ 73 __ Timmytour __________________ 56.0 _-103.2 __ 65.4 _______ 1.27 _-0.10_ -0.04 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 1.10 _____ 1.27

_ 74 __ DAVID SNOW ___________ (2) _ 56.0 _-103.2 __ 65.4 _______ 1.21 _-0.10_ -0.04 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 1.04 _____ 1.21

_ 75 __ sundog ______________________ 54.0_ -105.2 __ 66.4 _______ 1.03 _-0.10_ -0.04 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 0.88 _____ 1.03

_ 76 __ Steve Murr __________________ 52.0_ -107.2 __ 67.7 _______ 0.91 _-0.10_ -0.04 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 0.77 _____ 0.91

_ 77 __ prolongedSnowLover _______ 51.0_ -108.2 __ 68.3 _______ 0.79 _-0.10_ -0.04 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 0.66 _____ 0.79

_ 78 __ Leo97t ______________________ 50.0_-109.2 __ 69.1 _______ 0.67 _-0.10_ -0.04 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 0.55 _____ 0.67

_ 79 __ Norrance ___________________ 49.0_-110.2 __ 69.7 _______ 0.55 _-0.10_ -0.04 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 0.44 _____ 0.55

_ 80 __ Hotspur62 __________________ 46.0_-113.2 __ 71.4 _______ 0.43 _-0.10_ -0.05 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 0.33 _____ 0.43

_ 81 __ Neil N _______________________ 44.0_-115.2 __ 72.8 _______ 0.30 _-0.10_ -0.05 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 0.22 _____ 0.30

_ 82 __ DiagonalRedLine ______ (2) __ 44.0_-115.2 __ 72.8 _______ 0.22 _-0.10_ -0.05 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 0.14 _____ 0.24

_ 83 __ stargazer ____________________41.0_-118.2 __ 74.0 _______ 0.00 _-0.10_ -0.05 _-0.06_ -0.00 ___ 0.00 _____ 0.00

 

Note 72 _ (*) Scores from 72 to 83 descend in equal steps to zero with any duplicates noted. The full value of the deductions

is increasingly unused until last scores do not use any of the deductions to stay zero or next step(s) above. 

==============================================================================

 

Edited January 13, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[Summer18]

0.1C out, not bad for a first attempt but guessing it’s a fluke!  

[Roger J Smith]

Table value updated to 159.2 mm for EWP. This slightly higher outcome will move Lettucing Gutted into 4th and drop two forecasts of 115 mm (Summer Shower, Don) by one position. The table will be corrected in the previous post. This also changes slightly the list of "best historical combined forecasts" as will be shown by another edit.