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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    Lots going on with the charts as they struggle with a big pattern change.

    Expect chopping and changing from 168 hrs onwards,but it looks like low 

    pressure to start diving south bringing colder weather with snow for some.

    Remember the key for cold lovers is high pressure northwest north or northeast of U.K.

    along with low pressure to the south of U.K.

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    Hi all . I’m back from my summer hibernation . A warm welcome to all the new members . It’s hard to believe we’re back again chasing those hard to come by good winter charts . It’s true the older

    This is the ECM at 96 hrs v's the reanalysis for the 3rd of Nov 2010 and bears similarities in our part of the world now you wouldn't think that the epic winter of 2010 would come from that

    Time to start wheeling out the ECM snow depth charts then 😍. Please remember it is mandatory to reply with how unreliable they are and how it accumulates all falling snow even if it doesn’t settle bla

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    24 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Could we be looking at a january 2013 type of scenario here steve?wedge of heights around iceland sending snowy slider lows through into the continent!!

    I dont think at this stage the continent would be cold enough if we got that initial drag but over time it would cool quickly... 

    ECM 240 has easterlies filtering west across Scandi. Cold ones as well!

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

    Signs things may turn cooler mid week onwards but short term, apart from Sunday, it's looking exceptionally mild. Tuesday could see some well above average temperatures in particular. 

    The route to colder conditions is one of those where a wedge of high pressure could alter the jet stream significantly, it's one to watch but no doubt there be variations. Unfortunately it's one of those where on the next run, we could see a much flatter jet stream. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    26 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    EC probably provides some frosts and perhaps a little snow in the elevated North...

    Something seasonal would be nice.

    Just posting for fun but it actually had snow widely the following Saturday models seem interested on this date with a low disrupting SE into cold air in N+E, turning back to rain for many, remaining as snow in far north. I’d say those in Scotland look to have a taste of winter with snow to quite low levels, late next week. Quite a turnaround with how things were looking only a few days ago. 

    CFB270E7-256B-41C8-B008-2593968E7469.thumb.jpeg.813db033b0d365e74dbb0fcd45b48c38.jpeg

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cliftonville, Isle of Thanet, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme seasons
  • Location: Cliftonville, Isle of Thanet, Kent

    I can’t understand the reasoning for any negativity on here right now regarding a colder outlook. Seven days ahead and the north of Europe is cooling nicely along with a dormant Atlantic feed. Things are shaping up well. Remember we have not even hit mid November yet. Certainly a moderate improvement on recent years.

    Edited by Shere Khan
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    4 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

    Indeed - up in the Moray region and London area maybe a wee 16C could be achieved. 

    Latest UKV showing 15C maximum at the moment:

    6955A404-3E98-4CE2-BBE6-8ED9E468253D.thumb.jpeg.a1cc1308448776de2054c2afa6d2e19b.jpeg
     

    C791D461-EB1E-43F7-A105-F173284CE8E9.thumb.jpeg.1e68c7366df04ed547e4df7c1513af12.jpeg
     

    Final grass cutting/lawn mowing day of the year!? 😄

    Aye, think Tuesday will be the last warm day, summer clothes last day

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    Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
    24 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

    Indeed - up in the Moray region and London area maybe a wee 16C could be achieved. 

    Latest UKV showing 15C maximum at the moment:

    6955A404-3E98-4CE2-BBE6-8ED9E468253D.thumb.jpeg.a1cc1308448776de2054c2afa6d2e19b.jpeg
     

    C791D461-EB1E-43F7-A105-F173284CE8E9.thumb.jpeg.1e68c7366df04ed547e4df7c1513af12.jpeg
     

    Final grass cutting/lawn mowing day of the year!? 😄

    Mower washed and oiled and put away three  days ago . Cat models hugging Rayburn tonight so winter on its way and with the news that Nevis Range is to shut until into the New Year snow on the mountains is bound to arrive in great quantities now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    18z GFS is quite similar to its 12z, with -8c uppers in the Midlands, -10c uppers in Scotland, and potentially some snow to lower levels in NW England..

    gfseuw-1-156.thumb.png.b6448975d31a53f9e6210dd60a2f504c.png   gfseuw-2-168.thumb.png.511704e55bde741780eeef35c9d8101e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    Similar enough run, cold doesn't plunge quite so far into Europe to my eyes, but interesting heights still later towards the north in FI, many changes expected I wouldn't hesitate and curious where this might end up and how far the action out west makes inroads. 

    gfsnh-0-150.png

    gfsnh-0-270.png

    Edited by Griff
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    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor

    I’m encouraged to see some colder synoptics thrown into the outputs now.

     

    Could this be the 1st year since we’ve seen something substantial in the low Home Counties ? Since I worked at CGI in Jan 2014 it hasn’t snowed much here and now that I am not anymore at CGI could this be a positive winter ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    T144 ukmo, gfs and gfs mean. Ukmo is preferred. I find the gfs mean interesting as it is more like the ukmo. Many of the ens are not dissimilar to ukmo. Let’s see what ecm brings.

    3271C37A-D538-470D-A3D9-9D03EE4604FA.png

    6759B2C5-C426-47C5-8637-DF01155478C6.png

    57C949E2-2354-476F-A5A6-836C51DF5A26.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Let’s see what ecm brings?  That’s cleared it up then🤣🤣 best have another look this evening I think.

    8ECA9A22-5663-444F-92A8-AD1E8561997F.png

    D8133DCC-8509-4957-BDBC-9CE3010AD6AF.png

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Well woke up on my 59th birthday hoping to see some great upgrades and cross model agreement. I suspect the slight to moderate variation in the outlook leaves all options on the table. The only positive I guess is there isn't one atm and big upgrades are possible I guess 😊😊😊

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Interesting to see how this pans out, can't rule anything out to very cold weather arriving or back to mild rubbish again. 

     

    Big battle coming up. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

    Dropping heights in to Europe seemed to be nearly a sure bet looking at various 12Z outputs yesterday,if you were going to believe models post 168h. Almost credible with the lose of MJO forcing and return to background Nina state,kind of an Azores high displaced and Sceuro trough as per Nina November analogs. Now looking at EPS from this morning suddenly back to square one. with no blocking to the W or NW but a variation of cluster 1. Sceuro/Ural high or 2. NW Euro trough and Euro high, so unlike typical Nina. I suppose the cluster 1 with 28 members would offer cooling in Western Russia/East Europe, if the blocking were to stay as far north as possible. Greenland/Scandi dipole and Ural high is still a good reason not to be too negative, but it shows that its not that easy to lower the heights in Europe these days 🙂 

    20201114075200-36e16c228590db3c77bb835790d21ef7421cb1ab.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    What a cracking UKMO to start the weekend off, high pressure building to the north west drawing cold arctic air south with a little channel runner...where the two shall meet......Snow......???

    Goes to show how fickle the models are, anyone talking about the possibility of snow a few days ago would have been carried of in a straight jacket!

     

     

    UKMOPEU00_144_1-12.png

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Yes jules, still looks ridge trough ridge trough and fairly mobile 

    Still enough for those of a wintry disposition to be hopeful as we enter the final stages of November but nothing across the nwp that’s solid enough to hang a facemask on, let alone a hat !  Whilst Exeter are still seeing an early December northerly of some description, I would see the more likely height rise to be to our ene and we then rely on enough of the jet being deflected and split  south to bring any cold west. 
     

    I should add that there is a bit of excitement around the ukmo day 6 chart this morning - some output isn’t far away (gfsp, gem) and these models all then take too much of the jet ne in the mid term. we could get lucky with a better jet split day 7/8 but looks unlikely. it wouldn’t take much of a change in split to drive a very interesting wedge, given the developing heights to our east ....

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

    @nick sussex @bluearmy scanning trough EPS T2m and T850 for my location in central Europe there is defo an easterly influence visible.Despite T850 mean not being very cold -only around -3C the mean T2m indicating ice days from day 9 to day 15. It means a cols surface easterly perhaps lacking the punch from a trough and very loe heights but some very cold clusters are there as few below -20C runs appear

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Mornin' all... Isn't the GFS 00Z, at T+384, just greeaatt? Well, not really:💩

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    But, at least the GEFS ensembles present a very clear and incisive picture:👍

    t850Buckinghamshire.png    t2mBuckinghamshire.png

    prmslBuckinghamshire.png    prcpBuckinghamshire.png

    Okay then, children... don't forget your brollies on November 21st!☂️

     

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

    Mornin' all... Isn't the GFS 00Z, at T+384, just greeaatt? Well, not really:💩

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    But, at least the GEFS ensembles present a very clear and incisive picture:👍

    t850Buckinghamshire.png    t2mBuckinghamshire.png

    prmslBuckinghamshire.png    prcpBuckinghamshire.png

    Okay then, children... don't forget your brollies on November 21st!☂️

     

    Seems to say "just make up your own answer" after around day 8 (and in reality, probably a lot sooner than that).... 

    More runs needed! 😜

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    38 minutes ago, jules216 said:

    @nick sussex @bluearmy scanning trough EPS T2m and T850 for my location in central Europe there is defo an easterly influence visible.Despite T850 mean not being very cold -only around -3C the mean T2m indicating ice days from day 9 to day 15. It means a cols surface easterly perhaps lacking the punch from a trough and very loe heights but some very cold clusters are there as few below -20C runs appear

    Not a surprise for e Europe looking at the two clusters 

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    2 hours ago, swfc said:

    Well woke up on my 59th birthday hoping to see some great upgrades and cross model agreement. I suspect the slight to moderate variation in the outlook leaves all options on the table. The only positive I guess is there isn't one atm and big upgrades are possible I guess 😊😊😊

    Happy Birthday, swfc...I was being introduced to the 'wonders' of school, when you were born!👍

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