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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


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Yes IDO ec at least consistent from yesterday's 12z.things to the east just not rite are they in regard to the position of the high, to far south and shape etc. Jet to the south but in the UK not really bringing much benefit to our neck of the woods. day ten brings the Atlantic high into play heading into greenland again🤔God loves a trier eh 😁

Edited by swfc
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Hi all . I’m back from my summer hibernation . A warm welcome to all the new members . It’s hard to believe we’re back again chasing those hard to come by good winter charts . It’s true the older

This is the ECM at 96 hrs v's the reanalysis for the 3rd of Nov 2010 and bears similarities in our part of the world now you wouldn't think that the epic winter of 2010 would come from that

Time to start wheeling out the ECM snow depth charts then 😍. Please remember it is mandatory to reply with how unreliable they are and how it accumulates all falling snow even if it doesn’t settle bla

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ECM day 10 is interesting from the perspective of being very blocked and having a complete shutdown of the Atlantic storm train. PV has been sent across to Siberia:

image.thumb.png.d62dd434a1dc5e89a770376a7e4225a6.png

On the downside, we get a low anchored off the coast of Iberia sending mild air flooding across western Europe. No cold air in place at all:

image.thumb.png.110370d87befda621c4408da206a5177.png

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models this morning don’t seem to indicate anything other than average to SLIGHTLY below average temp wise, drier than has been of late.......still haven’t seen a frost yet, i may scrape a 1c or 0c IF skies clear over next 10 days 

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Fascinating to see so much energy going into the southern arm of the jet ...

Of course we may not hit the jackpot but we certainly have a ticket this morning...

EC kicks the vortex off its Greenland perch....just need the low pressure to our south a little further east, as we have seen so many times in the past ,it only takes one piece of the jigsaw to not go into place and its tantrum central!!!

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1 minute ago, dragan said:

models this morning don’t seem to indicate anything other than average to SLIGHTLY below average temp wise, drier than has been of late.......still haven’t seen a frost yet, i may scrape a 1c or 0c IF skies clear over next 10 days 

Agreed.

Its certainly been very poor locally for frosts this Autumn.

I'm not convinced we will see much looking at the 00z runs..I imagine cloud will be an issue, perhaps some fog, temps probably quite suppressed but I can't see below freezing, here at least..

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Gfs looks a bit flappy run to run at the moment ......awaiting the gfsp to see if that can rise above the entropy

ec has continuity on past two runs but the envelope on position of the blocking and troughing remains too wide to make any predictions 

gem has gone from the cross model agreed ops at day 8 back to the 00z ec solution from yesterday 

expect nothing in particular  to verify and you won’t be disappointed!

my best guess at the moment would be the trough to drop into Iberia and the Atlantic upper ridge to push back across n uk to the omnipresent scrussian ridge. 

With the extended clusters going from 2 to 4 sets on the last eps, this isn’t a time to be over analytical - Coldies should remain content  with the NH profile on ec op with the flaccid n American sector and Asian vortex 

Edited by bluearmy
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Can’t remember ever seeing this before...

A low to the east pushing west at the same time as one from the west pushes east, and they meet over us 🤔. Gem also lookin good this morning...GFS hasn’t got a clue in FI again now 🤣

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ECM clusters at day 8-10 look very blocked:

image.thumb.png.11ebdc6c6c5997d465e4ea4dc71b5c7e.png


Day 11-15 also looking pretty blocked, though nothing massively cold screaming out:

image.thumb.png.d8e64f890ec7cc8e7dafb8441b299cf7.png

Edited by mb018538
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Well, I must say that this morning's 00Z looks very promising... I'm getting a good feeling about next month... almost as good as during the run-up to Feb 2019. So, what can possibly go wrong!:drunk-emoji:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Some interest in this chart discussed over here this morning. Almost in the reliable time span at 96 hours. Some of the resorts expected to open the following weekend. So we are looking for snow of course.. The interest is in the developing cold pool expansion in Eastern Europe. This is shown on most models , even on the latest UKMO fax in that time scale. Although not particular deep cold, -10c 850mb  level values are being shown. Now to advect that potential deeper cold air mass westward, we need to see the south European lows align SW to NE. If that were to occur , you guys in the UK  would become in the firing line. As always, a fine balancing line, especially in the UK with your location on the edge of the Ocean and the Continental mass. What we do not want to see is the Iberian high stay in situ as at times being shown by the ECM model at day 10 , but thats a long way off. Overall its looking good for a more seasonal start to winter for most in Euroland/ UK.

C

850temp_20201125_00_096.jpg

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For a bit of fun really - yep, I’m going to analyse this mornings NAVGEM run.
😈

Looking at the charts between 72 and 180 hours:

D75A5563-D6C6-4EB1-BD49-84BB7F49DFC1.thumb.png.343bfe2e97992f324672b4005309d21e.pngA4D418BD-7517-4614-80C8-D3C3410382DD.thumb.png.42dc7964c729ca7e25306b16adc7d2d4.png2E40FFDF-3E80-4963-80AC-DED30C3C3AE2.thumb.png.98d9cdd0f4afd023c8945f31bbcc232c.png85AA8A17-A695-463E-980D-672C36F06191.thumb.png.2cfc4da211f98680d9703f0cdee854ad.png4F9EDBF8-3D3F-4FDF-B817-F77A766AB12C.thumb.png.2338f486f5b811667415a66e9d55cb56.png36B87259-154D-46CC-9725-97AB4C070828.thumb.png.75640807424512e63e1f28af0fb287da.png

Essentially has like with other models have, a wedge of High Pressure across Scandinavia that extends South-West over the UK for Sunday. Dry and cool with some morning frost likeky, and perhaps some mist and fog. Rest of the run is pretty much that Azores High ridging in from the West to cover a vast area of the UK. Lots of mid-Latitude blocking. Settled overall, with the driest weather over Southern UK, but plenty of dry weather further North too. Some fog and frost likely still.
 

You’ll notice however, for Wednesday morning next week (second chart from bottom), that the NAVGEM shows everywhere being covered with snow. Not just over the UK, but everywhere else in that chart in the Northern Hemisphere... So some mega Winter front looks possible during that morning. Chart right at the bottom does show that by Wednesday lunch time next week, High Pressure instantly settles back over the UK and the snow clears away 🤔

After all the damp weather over the last few or so weeks (apart from a few settled days earlier this week), a cool, dry, spell to me is still better than nothing. Could make for a spot of nice walking.

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