Model output discussion - Winter approaches

[swfc]

Ec looks strangely like the gfs 12 z earlier at day ten, low to the south west ete

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Huge potential at DAY 10 again on ECM.Isnt is always.............

Aye... the 18Z will be IMMENSE!

[Ali1977]

Cracking chart, there is no quick road to Zonal there.

Low pressure towards the Azores
High pressure over Greenland
High pressure to the NE
PV kicked to pieces

[Cheshire Freeze]

All hinges on what happens with that troughing stateside around days 7-9. That won't be resolved any time soon. If it behaves as we want it, we're in, December cold spell beckons. 

[daz_4]

There is huge spread in GEFS for Central Europe starting as soon as 72h so who knows how this will go but nothing too wintry in the works I would say. No real cold anywhere near and I don't like that high to the east. It just sits there and blocks everything.

[TSNWK]

Day 9 and 10 ECM is one of those when we want it all to slip east.. for once. 

Maybe not a money shot for us in the UK this run but for hemisphere perspective Wow! Just simply WOW!

[Nick F]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes presto...day 10 is excellent

Excellent for pulling in mild air from southern Europe? Can see it leading to an interesting evolution further down the line with the very blocked look, but only if we can source in some deep cold from somewhere.

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Cracking chart, there is no quick road to Zonal there.

Low pressure towards the Azores
High pressure over Greenland
High pressure to the NE
PV kicked to pieces

Imagine seeing this a few weeks ago for the 1st week of Dec. This anomaly chart does look better than what is showing on the ground however, but it’s still a great chart!! 

Edited November 24, 2020 by Ali1977

[Hotspur62]

The biggest thing for me is heights over Southern Europe are now consistently showing as dropping,something that has been missing the last 3-5 years in winter.It is a sure sign something is a foot,whether that means cold and snow for the Uk remains to be seen but at least we are in with a shout as we approach winter.As others have pointed out we would desperately unlucky to miss out on a cold spell now.

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Excellent for pulling in mild air from southern Europe? Can see it leading to an interesting evolution further down the line with the very blocked look, but only if we can source in some deep cold from somewhere.

Excellent in terms of getting the Atlantic blocked off and zonal flow halted, rather than the N arm cutting across building heights. The GFS failed to stop the troughing leaking across the top of the N Atlantic heights attempting to build. ECM sorts this. As I say, it's all dependent on how that stateside troughing evolves days 7-9. ECM is light years better going forward than the GFS.

Hard to see how a notable December cold spell doesn't materialise from that day 10 ECM chart.

Edited November 24, 2020 by CreweCold

[topo]

2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Excellent for pulling in mild air from southern Europe? Can see it leading to an interesting evolution further down the line with the very blocked look, but only if we can source in some deep cold from somewhere.

Exactly.

Can't see anything "exciting" at this chart. Whole Europe is covered by a much more warm layer, there is no path of cold air

[daz_4]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Imagine seeing this a few weeks ago for the 1st week of Dec.

Well this just shows that northern blocking is not everything. Cold locked away and I'm guessing warm air would sweep across whole Europe after this.

[Anthony Burden]

Like the the look of ECM 10 day,what say you for omega block.

[Ali1977]

6 minutes ago, topo said:

Exactly.

Can't see anything "exciting" at this chart. Whole Europe is covered by a much more warm layer, there is no path of cold air

There’s a very quick path to -24c uppers if that Greeny high holds it’s ground - noting we are talking day 10!!!! 

Edited November 24, 2020 by Ali1977

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, topo said:

Exactly.

Can't see anything "exciting" at this chart. Whole Europe is covered by a much more warm layer, there is no path of cold air

patience required here - of course the slightly slower route to cold often delivers a more sustained cold period but the extra delay brings with it the risk of shortwave dramas ….

i have general felt that a cold spell from this evolution depends on how the tpv gets itself over to asia and evacuates n America  - that's a slower route but if it carries on from ec day 10 then it could be epic

 

[Djdazzle]

First time I’ve checked in for a while. Got excited because there have been quite a few posts today - good sign. Then I saw “day 10” . . .

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, bluearmy said:

 

i have general felt that a cold spell from this evolution depends on how the tpv gets itself over to asia and evacuates n America  - that's a slower route but if it carries on from ec day 10 then it could be epic

 

My feelings exactly Nick! No idea how anyone can moan about that ECM output. Can only think some people cannot analyse synoptic charts properly?

[Day 10]

Think I need to change my name, Day 10 is giving me a headache!

[Anthony Burden]

12 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Cracking chart, there is no quick road to Zonal there.

Low pressure towards the Azores
High pressure over Greenland
High pressure to the NE
PV kicked to pieces

Absolutely correct just imagine if Greenland high joins high to our north east.OMEGA BLOCK 

[Mapantz]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

My feelings exactly Nick! No idea how anyone can moan about that ECM output. Can only think some people cannot analyse synoptic charts properly?

It would be more constructive to explain why, rather than berate others. Remember, a lot of folk are in here to learn.

[That ECM]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

My feelings exactly Nick! No idea how anyone can moan about that ECM output. Can only think some people cannot analyse synoptic charts properly?

Ecm is better but neither are to be sniffed at considering what have seen for too many winters.  T240 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Mapantz said:

It would be more constructive to explain why, rather than berate others. Remember, a lot of folk are in here to learn.

I've already explained why a few posts up 

[Cheshire Freeze]

14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Excellent in terms of getting the Atlantic blocked off and zonal flow halted, rather than the N arm cutting across building heights. The GFS failed to stop the troughing leaking across the top of the N Atlantic heights attempting to build. ECM sorts this. As I say, it's all dependent on how that stateside troughing evolves days 7-9. ECM is light years better going forward than the GFS.

Hard to see how a notable December cold spell doesn't materialise from that day 10 ECM chart.

@Mapantz

[snow mad]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

My feelings exactly Nick! No idea how anyone can moan about that ECM output. Can only think some people cannot analyse synoptic charts properly?

If you watch it with the animation on it looks like day 11 would see that low over Iberia sweep into the med and an easterly quickly followed by a Greenland high. Hopefully a new trend 

[Snow lover 2020]

2 minutes ago, snow mad said:

If you watch it with the animation on it looks like day 11 would see that low over Iberia sweep into the med and an easterly quickly followed by a Greenland high. Hopefully a new trend 

Omg we are getting hints maybe for a beast from east possibly from that chart!!!

Edited November 24, 2020 by Snow lover 2020