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Hi all . I’m back from my summer hibernation . A warm welcome to all the new members . It’s hard to believe we’re back again chasing those hard to come by good winter charts . It’s true the older

This is the ECM at 96 hrs v's the reanalysis for the 3rd of Nov 2010 and bears similarities in our part of the world now you wouldn't think that the epic winter of 2010 would come from that

Time to start wheeling out the ECM snow depth charts then 😍. Please remember it is mandatory to reply with how unreliable they are and how it accumulates all falling snow even if it doesn’t settle bla

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    Just now, SLEETY said:

    poor run lol,considering we are using staring at raging zonality as we head into December which lasts most the winter.At least we have a chance of something more seasonal.

    It is a poor run comparing run to run. Folk posting epic charts at day ten on this mornings ec and then gem???? Selective posting. Yes it's seasonal which is fine🙄🙄🙄

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    For newbies. Good run bad run depends on what people are hunting for me ecm shows high over us at t192. I would be happy with that and see where it goes from there.👍

    CA7B425F-C04F-4B45-B971-D49D52DDDFC7.png

    Edited by That ECM
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    4 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

    Looking very good on ecm at 168hrs. I can't remember the last time November looked this good...

    not that good

    ECM0-168.GIF?23-0

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    Posted
  • Location: York, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow, Heat
  • Location: York, UK

    The only bad place this run is for is the western coast of the USA, barely any rain at all forecasted for the next two weeks if it comes off. At least for us it's showing high pressure in place and low heights down across Iberia and Europe.  The building blocks there for something spectacular to happen. Patience is a virtue 

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
    5 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

    Good bad yes no ? make yer minds up😄😄

    It is a bit confusing sometimes in here😂....i think youll find its good if your after dry, cold, sunny conditions with light winds...bad if you're looking for a blizzard and sub zero temperatures 😁!  

    Edited by KTtom
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    10 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

    I’ve seen over the last few years that when GEM agrees with ECM we can be fairly confident. I’m not sure about recent data but GEM was outperforming GFS at day 10 last time I checked.
     

    Lots to be optimistic about going into winter...can’t believe it’s not even winter yet! Feels like we are half way through snow chasing season already 🤣

    4587F077-7643-49FC-A686-97B983E8B82F.png

    5B94DFE7-D6B2-4A1A-B815-FA8310F5B9FC.png

    Actually Day 10 verification charts currently show the GFS (both versions) on top, GEM behind ECM.  

    2E20C74A-F45F-4A14-946A-EFE1350087BE.thumb.png.93b9afe10e7214b0b8152c3fb9760a96.png

    Unusual, normally its ECM followed by GEM then GFS.

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    3 minutes ago, swfc said:

    It is a poor run comparing run to run. Folk posting epic charts at day ten on this mornings ec and then gem???? Selective posting. Yes it's seasonal which is fine🙄🙄🙄

    As you say earlier run the interest was at day 10...which isn’t come out yet. As Blue qualified earlier the GEM is a good model and regarded by some as better than the GFS at day 10. This is the model output discussion, most in here are passionate about cold and snow so yes, there will be selected posting ...

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

    As you say earlier run the interest was at day 10...which isn’t come out yet. As Blue qualified earlier the GEM is a good model and regarded by some as better than the GFS at day 10. This is the model output discussion, most in here are passionate about cold and snow so yes, there will be selected posting ...

    Which is fi?? I'm to passionate about cold and snow but not much point ignoring the change in output before and around 168 hrs. If its there it is what it is? 🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Trigger shortwave or scuppered by shortwave?

    20201123_185617.thumb.png.af1bbd79a48bba8558badfb8daf98391.png

    Day 10 EC leaves us on a cliffhanger 

    ECMOPEU12_240_1.thumb.png.b13755857d869d97a5800910b34cf477.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    Trigger shortwave or scuppered by shortwave?

    20201123_185617.thumb.png.af1bbd79a48bba8558badfb8daf98391.png

    Day 10 EC leaves us on a cliffhanger 

    ECMOPEU12_240_1.thumb.png.b13755857d869d97a5800910b34cf477.png

     

    You need to add the tune played at the end of Eastenders.🤣🤣🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    “Gefs 850hpa 12z London showing a couple of members going for -10c ,not saying it will happen

    but very good to see them showing on the ensembles.ECM keen on continental feed,but unwise

    to go much further than 120 hrs/144hrs lots of uncertainty as met office mentions.

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Very limited comment on such a great ec ete. Anyway the easterly seems to have been dumped for a northerly as such? I'd suspect a middle ground with possibly a mlb. Dry and cool so seasonal 

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    This early winter model output is piquing my interest, for this reason:

    Way up above, the strat vortex spins faster and faster, but the trop vortex is disconnected with it at present.  

    9C9E1CCE-4E10-4520-8F55-FF721CA1FC9B.thumb.png.3099edab179505cf938e03de642232eb.png

    You can get an idea of the disconnect by looking at the NAM plot (Northern Annular Mode aka the AO but at different levels of the atmosphere) courtesy of Stratobserve:  

    8CE3826E-4C48-416C-A972-FA6F78DDA5EC.thumb.png.5d129b195341311330c8cab2371ac05d.png

    This is from today’s GFS 0z, which forecasts a +NAM in the strat throughout the forecast period, while this doesn’t seem to be the case in the trop.  I recall watching this last year but two things were different, the strat vortex wasn’t spinning so fast, and the -NAM signal in the trop was stronger.  But the disconnect didn’t last, from memory about a week into December they coupled and wrote off the rest of winter!  

    In terms of the strat and trop vortexes coupling, I wonder if the fast spinning strat vortex will make this take a little longer this year, maybe sufficiently far into mid December or later to get a decent cold spell before it happens?  Rightly or wrongly, I have this model in my mind that coupling is more or less inevitable but a random process, with the trop vortex doing its own thing until conditions for coupling occur, a bit like throwing two dice every day as we progress into winter, one day the score will be ‘low enough’ and the coupling occurs, I hope this year with that fast-spinning strat vortex, we need snake eyes for them to couple!  Let’s keep rolling the high numbers as far into December as we can...

    And whatever model you look at, the trop vortex is not happy:

    3E27A40A-1DEF-4BF1-A6E7-37D2C7CA5BBF.thumb.png.a6af9719854eb30603f91a2a720ef7a7.png0768F5B7-A5B7-4750-9946-4092C39CDFBC.thumb.png.53f12bd87fc7f016cce8a940fdc425fa.png40B07B14-958C-42E8-A06A-5CAD0013931D.thumb.png.d97d2f7c1a003d72cb859484d69108bd.png

    It is away from its natural home and long may it stay so!  I reckon we’ve got about a month to nail something...we will see...

    Good Post. Yes the window has you say may well be short. The 10hpa numbers are dropping but I think moving east ie tpv action. Given the met ete have no real idea about when any coupling will occur says it all 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

    Imo we have until around the middle of December to get a decent spell and then again chances get stronger after around the middle to the end of jan, anything in between nearly always is pretty dire where the vortex is at its strongest, we shall see but that’s my thoughts anyway so think we need the cards to land favourably for the first half of December 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM ensemble mean, it is the first time I’ve seen the vortex resemble a dismembered purple scrotum, but here goes T168:

    1B1E1E96-3226-4DEF-95DE-716D1B936472.thumb.png.75547f9986c66ab1feb6d90a7ada5e20.png

    T240:

    A5D6863D-6F40-48B9-8D6F-6E5A72806AF6.thumb.png.721211bf77dc40326a67f3cb211a7216.png

    Vortex displaced, hints of trough into Europe, displaced Azores high west, it is all looking OK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Rotherham
    2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    JMA seasonal one of the better ones IMO - JMA regular short - med range model is too inconsistent IMO, i find it tends to over amplify but only on some occasions, so at least with the ECM & GFS, if you get a situation where the GFS is too progressive, barrelling the Atlantic through and the ECM as a big convective Easterly with the -12c isotherm slamming into Ireland, you can bet its going to be a Battleground or col. But with JMA i just cannot put my finger on how to read it.

    Much as I would like to believe the JMA seasonal, I suspect it might be overcooking the longevity of any northern blocking. Interestingly, the Beijing Climate Centre was also going for sustained northern blocking as well. Let's hope the Asian models have picked up on something the others haven't! (But I doubt it)

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