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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


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Hi all . I’m back from my summer hibernation . A warm welcome to all the new members . It’s hard to believe we’re back again chasing those hard to come by good winter charts . It’s true the older

This is the ECM at 96 hrs v's the reanalysis for the 3rd of Nov 2010 and bears similarities in our part of the world now you wouldn't think that the epic winter of 2010 would come from that

Time to start wheeling out the ECM snow depth charts then 😍. Please remember it is mandatory to reply with how unreliable they are and how it accumulates all falling snow even if it doesn’t settle bla

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Those of a cold persuasion ponder if we are about to see seismic changes from the broadly mild and unsettled pattern of recent weeks...

Key is removing that Euro high!!!

Edited by northwestsnow
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The urals high pressure is key here to buckling the jet and sending it into europe and the low heights. Also there is enough energy coming from the atlantic  in the form of shallow low pressures to stop to azores high ridging north keeping the jet heading SE into europe. glimmer of hope lets see how it plays out. 

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14 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

She's tryin' captain! Some snow for elevated areas across the Midlands northward. 

image.thumb.png.ed2a9210e86970ad0db4808395d48f90.pngimage.thumb.png.4e42f0a5dbe5f0cf2a78a44328427b8c.png


 

Oooosh ...that’s what I’m talking about 😍

Anywhere north of the M4 could see some of the magic white stuff from that, probably only higher areas and north of Brum but it’s a start! 

E3985290-BCF3-4B1F-A5D4-2A9A1890B961.png

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Of course GFS snow charts are purely for fun at the range involved but how nice is it to have a little excitement in November for our gang of weirdos !! Esp while we live through unprecedented and challenging times...

Fingers crossed the weather Gods give us some cheer ....

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1 hour ago, snowking said:

Always be wary of any output with the draining low heights away from Greenland but with little margin for error beyond day 4 - there has been a constant tendency for modelling at this timescale in recent years to exaggerate any height rises in the Greenland locale, with slow corrections towards lower heights the closer we get for T+0, leading to a less amplified Atlantic pattern overall.

I’ll remain sceptical until this starts to show up within the T+72 timescale with some consistency

if you set your sights on small rises rather than big ones which will deflect the jet and likely lead to sliders then you'll likely end up closer to reality anyway - i see the 00z gfsp is not without interest through week 2

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21 hours ago, General Cluster said:

 

The trend coming of the esb is great. Heighths pushing out from there and hopefully pulling up the azores high at some stage 🤞🤞

Edited by swfc
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Big swing in the output over the last 24/36hrs. Just goes to show how quickly things can change. More of a La nina pattern seemingly setting up and the enso warming slightly. Interesting.....

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1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Models no doubt latching on to a more typical late autumn la Nina forced imprint, ie mid Atlantic heights and trough to our east. A trend, we shall see? Recent departure from said pattern due to interference from tropical activity which has now run its course, balance re-set?

Yes agree with this, a bit late coming but a signal trend to a much  cooler/and cold at times set up (NWS highlights some decent chill temps forecast).  Let’s hope it continues as a precursor to the anticipated theme of 1st half of December.  It’s a tricky transition but once in, a chance of a repeat pattern of La Nina.  Certainly nice to see models throwing this change up, now all we need is it to verify 😐

 

 BFTP

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Any northerly will only be transient according to these charts, as we retain a moderately strong westerly mean upper flow. This looks unsettled, average, wettest and cloudiest in the north .

Sorry but that ECM chart isnt the start of a new trend/pattern/whatever.

 

814day.03 d.gif

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30 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Oooosh ...that’s what I’m talking about 😍

Anywhere north of the M4 could see some of the magic white stuff from that, probably only higher areas and north of Brum but it’s a start! 

E3985290-BCF3-4B1F-A5D4-2A9A1890B961.png

Any truth in the rumours that Boris is proposing to move the M4 into the English Channel this year ? 🤨 

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4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Any northerly will only be transient according to these charts, as we retain a moderately strong westerly mean upper flow. This looks unsettled, average, wettest and cloudiest in the north .

Sorry but that ECM chart isnt the start of a new trend/pattern/whatever.

 

814day.03 d.gif

I think there is cause for optimism - there's not really been much in the way of interest from a cold perspective showing up for quite a bit and a few changes this morning has certainly wet the appetite and rightly so - a few picks 

 

image.thumb.png.72a55db2e997f2810ebc42797a1638ad.png

 

image.thumb.png.0458329d7c1ab806c1d4af14ede4eac3.png

 

image.thumb.png.6989935089ce2d4b85f16b4a19066cc7.png

 

Nothing to suggest any long term cold or even cold of real potency but in a month that's prior to the start of Winter I'd happily bag a few of these 🙂 

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6z is a cold run for late Autumn.

7 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Any northerly will only be transient according to these charts, as we retain a moderately strong westerly mean upper flow. This looks unsettled, average, wettest and cloudiest in the north .

Sorry but that ECM chart isnt the start of a new trend/pattern/whatever.

 

814day.03 d.gif

Indeed,esp with no genuine Greenland block...

However, we may see enough energy digging into Europe which will be potentially helpful down the line...

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Och well, the GFS 06Z ends on a slightly more optimistic look...  But is that HP about to build back in again? A cold and snowy winter? Who the heck knows!:santa-emoji:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

However, I do hope we don't end up with a 'Classic' 20th Century winter... like 1975!😱

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Just now, mb018538 said:

As this tweet and others have said - MJO activity is now subsiding, and we should head back towards a more typical Nina pattern in the next 2-3 weeks. Some excitement at last!

well dropping into the COD in phase 2 and re emerging in an 8/1 phase would be nice

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I wonder if Marco has been onto this for a little while...certainly Exeter were referencing potentially colder conditions later into November?

Anyway, some interest for the 12z runs today... Paul, if we get some tasty charts over the next few weeks prepare the server! With lockdown ongoing you might get deluged with snow hungry coldies on here !!🤣

Edited by northwestsnow
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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

I wonder if Marco has been onto this for a little while...certainly Exeter were referencing potentially colder conditions later into November?

ECM monthly temperature (T2m) Anomalies was all over it on 26th October.

F358DF72-084F-44DE-8459-917EEF0A28EC.thumb.jpeg.d5951d7fcd1791f8cc4a5d48fefcb112.jpeg
 

It has been up and down since but the signal has always been very close to our shores for a below average spell.

We just have to remember it has not actually happened yet. 😁

After the abysmal Winter of 2019/20 it is just nice to see numerous different models/charts/outlooks show some seasonal weather! 

My head says NW/N toppler scenario with snowfall on the higher hills/mountains, wintry showers on low ground for the North and a few frosts down South. 
Heart says one foot of settling snow for us all. 😄:snowman-emoji:

One thing is guaranteed - Daily Express will be announcing a Northerly snow bomb/polar vortex exploding blizzard on a collision with the UK and Ireland for the end of November. 😃

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As winter is approaching i'll say

1)the models so far have been about 2oc out

2)it's been relativatly mild so far this year

3)not all forecasts have come out

4)here are some of the charts20112906_1306.thumb.gif.6ade53291a806b9f0c58f2a0f28c6583.gif06_312_mslp500.thumb.png.dfc622cc544fef90c0a75e3e6f8190fe.png06_327_mslp500.thumb.png.2194b37dbc0a50350d0cb2ba6d82fe93.png06_351_mslp500.thumb.png.aa8decedc7bf8c7f6c04514638d5aa2b.png06_339_mslp500.thumb.png.8b527148d40052227441ddfbc989283e.pngGFSOPEU06_324_1.thumb.png.fa5d1fce355180aa569b61e05fe007bd.pngGFSOPEU06_360_1.thumb.png.b62d96fec8dc252a6ab8c5d01022b319.png

5)These charts are looking promosing. 

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1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Any northerly will only be transient according to these charts, as we retain a moderately strong westerly mean upper flow. This looks unsettled, average, wettest and cloudiest in the north .

Sorry but that ECM chart isnt the start of a new trend/pattern/whatever.

 

814day.03 d.gif

I tend to agree mushy, to me there does not seem much on any synoptic output from any centre YET that looks anything like either the 6-10 or the 8-14 anomaly charts, including EC-GFS really. So patience for the cold brigade!

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