Model output discussion - Winter approaches

[johnholmes]

Mon 23 Nov. ec-gfs and noaa 500 mb charts and my comments

Ec keeps the ridge similar to yesterday and again links it all way across n America to ridge over w/central areas. Gfs today showing something similar and still keeps troughing eastern half n America, bit more pronounced in fact; flow into uk is now like ec, n of w and some troughing now into europe. Ec also makes more of the cut off shown on both sw of Iberia.

Noaa has minor height rises off eastern seaboard and atlantic flow decreased even further from yesterday into uk, no flow over s’ern half of country with rounded trough for n’ern half; very slt flow into very slack area over Europe.

The question is, is what ec-gfs indicate the first signal for a pattern change in wavelengths. Not clear to me but it could be. If noaa starts to show their pattern and they maintain what they show today then it becomes a much higher probability.

Interesting to see what does happen.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov//favicon.ico Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

[Anthony Burden]

A few days ago we were looking at mild changeable weather,now what a change to high

pressure cold and frosty.Like the look of GEM over next 10 days but generally more like

winter weather should be,get your gloves and warm coats out.

 

[sheikhy]

Aaand right on cue theres a stronger high now around scandy at 120 hours on gfs!!more of a conti feel across the uk❄!!!

[Tim Bland]

Look at the difference over North East Canada 00z Vs 06z .....

[Eskimo]

Was thinking why there weren't many posts in here regarding the 06z...can't be that bad, surely? 

Oh. 

 

 

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Look at the difference over North East Canada 00z Vs 06z .....

Yes massive difference. But for uk if taken in isolation it looks flatter...

Short term pain for long term gain?

[IDO]

So changes upstream as it becomes a bit more meridional:

2 days ago >>> current>>> 

We see the Alaskan Ridge and this will impact the trough in our region and also change the flow of the tPV. The models will no doubt have an intensive workout to resolve this change? My bugbear was that euro/russian high, and that is being exorcised eastwards so a better chance of the block in the Atlantic rather than the higher pressure leakage, Azores>Rusis/euro highs?

[Ali1977]

Day 10 ECM vs GFS. 

Lots of ground between here and then, they are similar in many areas but the important area around Greenland is different, with the GFS having a lump of PV to its West.

[Tim Bland]

What a load of rubish the 06z is... I don’t know why they bother running it. (Unless it’s showing cold and snow) it’s unreliable ...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

00z v 06z....as it’s the UK I’ll back the 06z

 

BFTP

[sheikhy]

Pretty bad 06z in fi!!flat as a pancake lol!!

[Methuselah]

Just when interest, in anything other than mild southwesterlies, starts to take hold, along comes Uncle Barty!

    

And, at T+384, the smelly old sod is still hanging around!

  

Edited November 23, 2020 by General Cluster

[IDO]

9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

What a load of rubish the 06z is... I don’t know why they bother running it. (Unless it’s showing cold and snow) it’s unreliable ...

Not a bad synoptic, just the sympathetic trough has dropped too far west and heights building behind it are going to ridge into the UK. Only one run and this could develop more in our favour especially if the upstream ridge builds more, with less creep east:

At the moment we are waiting for something more dynamic to switch it up; Rossby wave, forcing or strat action? Until then we are just at the call of the ebb and flow of the NH underlying pattern, so need a bit (lot!) of luck?  

[kold weather]

That pattern the 06z sets up in the 2nd half of its run tends to be a very stubborn pattern that can hold basically in situ for weeks with varying ebbs and flows depending on the depth of the upstream low pressure systems. Its about one of the most boring weather patterns I could think of.

We really don't want that setting into place otherwise that will be the 2/3rds of December gone. 

[dragan]

according to gfs 06z , after a brief flirt with high pressure, it’s more or less an onslaught from the west.....again

[nick sussex]

Underwhelming GFS 06 hrs run .

The relocation of the main PV needs to be complete and not leave anything behind in ne Canada , western Greenland .

I wouldn’t panic over one GFS run. Still lots of time for changes , hopefully good ones .

Edited November 23, 2020 by nick sussex

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Underwhelming GFS 06 hrs run .

The relocation of the main PV needs to be complete and not leave anything behind in ne Canada , western Greenland .

I wouldn’t panic over one GFS run. Still lots of time for changes , hopefully good ones .

 Slowly slowly catchy monkey gfs run by run improving over medium term it's always going to go off in one in fi.

[That ECM]

10 minutes ago, dragan said:

according to gfs 06z , after a brief flirt with high pressure, it’s more or less an onslaught from the west.....again

Onslaught from the west?  From what I viewed from t72 onwards majority of uk under high pressure especially the further south you are. Underwhelming agreed but.....

Edited November 23, 2020 by That ECM

[dragan]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Onslaught from the west?  From what I viewed from t72 onwards majority of uk under high pressure especially the further south you are. Underwhelming agreed but.....

well your far more experienced than me and it’s just my observation, but running through there is a westerly air flow just about every frame (not necessarily wet) 

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, dragan said:

well your far more experienced than me and it’s just my observation, but running through there is a westerly air flow just about every frame (not necessarily wet) 

I’ve been on here for 15 years under various different names, because I forgot my login details and set up a new account, but I’m still an individual sat their 3rd bedroom looking at raw output.  I miss interpreted your word onslaught to mean low after low barrelling in.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I’ve been on here for 15 years under various different names, because I forgot my login details and set up a new account, but I’m still an individual sat their 3rd bedroom looking at raw output.  I miss interpreted your word onslaught to mean low after low barrelling in.

5th Dec 2012! that user name?

[Eagle Eye]

finally a hint of cold

[bluearmy]

given the overall tone of the 00z eps suite, there will be a fair bit of attention on the ec46 when it appears this evening 

[NewEra21]

GFS 06z OP was a pretty clear mild outlier towards the latter part of the run.

Plenty more cooler/colder runs in there.

Edited November 23, 2020 by NewEra21

[Daniel*]

6 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

The day 10 mean pressure chart shows many of the EMS must be on the same page, and there’s no quick return to a mobile set up from here you’d think!! Maybe nothing exceptionally cold (Initially at least) but this could be a long chilly spell, not often we have those nowadays. 

Yes, EPS 2M high/low temps for London goes out to day 15, very unusual to have prolonged strong clustering on cool weather they’re not interested in double figures.