Model output discussion - Winter approaches

[Allseasons-Si]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I've not posted so much in ages...

 

Why!!!

have you become a postman

Just kidding mate,the more the merrier 

will the 18z follow the ECM?,i hope so.

Edited November 22, 2020 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Mike Poole]

GFS 18z T126 compared to 12z T132:

WAA more northerly oriented, should be good run this.  

[Daniel*]

35 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It is partly but will have little influence this Winter. 

Why will it not have influence and even positive? It has descended to lowest part of atmosphere and the easterlies have even strengthened. We currently have a lid with westerlies higher up they seem to be holding back from descending. It’s likely in first half of winter it will be easterly where we need it, maybe some are calling it faux eQBO as it is not consistent through atmosphere. But as with strong polar vortex we currently have a disconnect with stratosphere and troposphere. You can’t look at things from surface observation you must dig deeper. 

[Allseasons-Si]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 18z T126 compared to 12z T132:

WAA more northerly oriented, should be good run this.  

The trough isn't disrupting to the west of us though mike and that's why the heights are not lowering in Iberia,i mentioned this the other day,if the trough disrupts to our S/SE it props the high up.

Edited November 22, 2020 by Allseasons-si
typo

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

The trough isn't disrupting to the west of us though mike and that's why the heights are not lowering in Iberia,i mention this the other day,if the trough disrupts to our S/SE it props the high up.

Ah well game up.on the 18z!!over to the 00z lol!!!think ecm wont be as good on the 00z either!probably more of a high pressure across the uk than the cold easterly on the 12z!!hope to be wrong though!!dont mind dry and frosty for now to be fair!

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The trough isn't disrupting to the west of us though mike and that's why the heights are not lowering in Iberia,i mention this the other day,if the trough disrupts to our S/SE it props the high up.

No you are right it’s not turned out as good a run in the semi-reliable, elsewhere in the NH looks Ok for putting pressure on the strat vortex though.  

[booferking]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Ah well game up.on the 18z!!over to the 00z lol!!!think ecm wont be as good on the 00z either!probably more of a high pressure across the uk than the cold easterly on the 12z!!hope to be wrong though!!dont mind dry and frosty for now to be fair!

Game only beginning you mean watch for the big block west side. #Atlantic 

[Mike Poole]

Northerly incoming T228:

And a very disturbed vortex to boot.  Nothing nailed on yet, but some promising charts turning up on most runs now...I smell something brewing...

[Tim Bland]

Mother of all northerlies incoming...

[Allseasons-Si]

25 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ah well game up.on the 18z!!over to the 00z lol!!!think ecm wont be as good on the 00z either!probably more of a high pressure across the uk than the cold easterly on the 12z!!hope to be wrong though!!dont mind dry and frosty for now to be fair!

It's just one run though and maybe having a wobble...it's drunk

23 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

No you are right it’s not turned out as good a run in the semi-reliable, elsewhere in the NH looks Ok for putting pressure on the strat vortex though.  

yes the theme is still the same,the way i see it is that heights to our E/NE and  W/NW forcing troughs to run on a NW-SE trajectory through the UK like a stuck record but as you say these heights are putting huge pressure on the trop pv,it's cold up there with nearly -80 temps at 30 hpa so should we squeeze this already  ununiformed trop pv to lower lats(depending where) then somewhere will cop for it

i am watching those heights in the Atlantic in the extended because some of the ens have been showing some pretty good northerly blasts and i think that is where our next interest lies.

Edited November 22, 2020 by Allseasons-si
missed text

[ianmm94]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Mother of all northerlies incoming...

I hope that's sarcasm 

[northwestsnow]

Gfs 18z nukes the Euro high ...we need to see more of this...

[bluearmy]

The 18z seems a reasonable punt in week 2 given the ens output 

[Daniel*]

15 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ah well game up.on the 18z!!over to the 00z lol!!!think ecm wont be as good on the 00z either!probably more of a high pressure across the uk than the cold easterly on the 12z!!hope to be wrong though!!dont mind dry and frosty for now to be fair!

Hold your horses! Day 10, however, there is ens agreement for fall in pressure from N/NW so we quickly move onto next area of interest after anticyclonic weak continental flow. It’s not looking likely we hold onto that for long but you can’t rule out anything. Maybe a shot of similar but second attempt of an actual cold easterly with lower pressure and colder continent makes you wonder.

[Allseasons-Si]

15 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Mother of all northerlies incoming...

The trop pv is pointing the finger at us Tim,the middle one

Yes a northerly of sorts but no where cold enough but at least it's showing.

what i don't see of which is a rarity at this time of the year is a zonal train,and whilst that is absent,then we stand a good chance going into winter.

 

Edited November 22, 2020 by Allseasons-si
added more text

[Mike Poole]

JMA T264 strat chart, nothing spectacular if you are looking for a SSW, but I’m not, at the moment anyway, maybe a hint of wave 2 pressure on the vortex, this could be important in delaying the day the trop and strat vortexes couple:

Edited November 22, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Eskimo]

GFS likely to end on a rather familiar note - Atlantic barrelling in. 

[Catacol]

5 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Far from it. These heights are keeping us in the long game. They will do much more for us than Greenland heights which would let the strat and trop couple more effectively during December. 

If you look at the strat charts, you can see that the SPV may be taken out through the back door eventually as there appears to be a signal for a bottom-up warming due to constant Russian heights and Aleutian LP. This would stand us in good stead from Jan onwards.

You can see the warmth starting to circle at 30HPA

Agreed. We are just beginning to see the impact of wave 2 setup in the Berlin strat charts. It may not be popular to say so, but playing the longer game is what we are doing now. If this ScEuro pattern hangs around even longer than expected when we were looking at November, then short term pain may possibly be replaced by long term gain. There appears to be a strong signal for low pressure over Alaska through the winter, and if it can spawn sufficient numbers of systems that fire SE rather than due E driven by an active MJO signal then this wave 2 will be sustained.

SSW mid to late January. Vortex split. Effects around 2 weeks later. With December looking a bit disappointing now, looking for a classic cold February......

This ECM pressure anomaly forecast for a month's time may look grim - but spot the shape of the pattern over the ScEuro zone as well as the North Pacific close to Alaska. Wave 2 potential. Just need a bit of luck to get the right kind of precise setup as per Feb 2018.....

 

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

GFS likely to end on a rather familiar note - Atlantic barrelling in. 

In the main this op is dry cool to cold with quite a bit of frost to boot...

I'd take it right now personally.

[Paul_1978]

9 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

GFS likely to end on a rather familiar note - Atlantic barrelling in. 

T+300 hours that though mate. Not a concern. 

[northwestsnow]

We can see on 18z the importance of the troughing across Europe.

Without it we would be in serious trouble, well,coldies would.

[Allseasons-Si]

11 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

GFS likely to end on a rather familiar note - Atlantic barrelling in. 

This is in fl PS and how is the Atlantic barreling in when you have lower heights to our S/SE and a block to our NE

you need to look at the bigger picture(nh),does the trop pv look round?

it certainly doesn't look like a zonal onslaught to me

i hope that helps mate.

[Geordiesnow]

Good too see the models firming up more on the blocked high pressure set up, will be hoping for some frosty nights up here as they are quite rare to say the least. 

Looks hard too see a snowy set up developing though, there is no significant cold pools, Siberia is constantly above average as is most of the Siberian Arctic and there is no signs of the PV dropping into Scandinavia so its feeding off scraps really. That said, this less active Atlantic is more than welcoming though, I love deep lows but we had too much of that in recent years, hopefully it will be different come this winter. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Day ten control...

...incoming.

[A Frayed Knot]

Great posts today and this evening, Exiting times ahead and it's not even Winter.... 

Lots to be happy and excited about. Hoarse frosts and stays cold and crisp with still Frost on the ground during the day is my kind of thing.