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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


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Hi all . I’m back from my summer hibernation . A warm welcome to all the new members . It’s hard to believe we’re back again chasing those hard to come by good winter charts . It’s true the older

This is the ECM at 96 hrs v's the reanalysis for the 3rd of Nov 2010 and bears similarities in our part of the world now you wouldn't think that the epic winter of 2010 would come from that

Time to start wheeling out the ECM snow depth charts then 😍. Please remember it is mandatory to reply with how unreliable they are and how it accumulates all falling snow even if it doesn’t settle bla

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Time to start wheeling out the ECM snow depth charts then 😍. Please remember it is mandatory to reply with how unreliable they are and how it accumulates all falling snow even if it doesn’t settle blah blah blah.... Wax those sleds !

P.S is traveling 300 miles to go sledging classed as essential travel?? Asking for a friend... 🛷 

 

2D99661E-E5D5-4252-A135-AFCCCE9AD962.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Time to start wheeling out the ECM snow depth charts then 😍. Please remember it is mandatory to reply with how unreliable they are and how it accumulates all falling snow even if it doesn’t settle blah blah blah.... Wax those sleds !

P.S is traveling 300 miles to go sledging classed as essential travel?? Asking for a friend... 🛷 

 

2D99661E-E5D5-4252-A135-AFCCCE9AD962.jpeg

If there is snow forecast in the Barnard Castle area, and you can double your trip up as an eye test, then you'll be fine.

Otherwise, you'd better stay at home and not risk a million pound fine 😄

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Good to see continued weak heights over Greenland holding their own picked up quite well by the UKMO a few days back so not sure why such a surprise to some.

UN120-21.thumb.GIF.3cb1b501d1e64dd3c13544f39250c096.GIFUN144-21.thumb.GIF.fa4624ca22e6093f0290238e18fa2d6f.GIF

The ECM continuing on from lastnight, slightly stronger heights to the  North and therefore a decent northerly by 168.

ECH1-144.thumb.png.a85ac6bae84feaa75668e0061b21b928.pngECH1-168.thumb.png.b78c31fc986af89d5fa60484cc07b410.pngECH0-168.thumb.png.67b1c73ab6724b6da172b54caa4ca0b1.png

The GFS makes less of those heights and goes it's own way as usual...

gfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.d917a8214ed95df78d81434b3417f191.pnggfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.0eb8baf09a135f9b355d342031a2d488.png

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image.thumb.png.43a27eda6bb81c0e4dde47485d55aa12.png

Clusters this morning hold a bit more interest if you prefer cooler weather. Largest cluster has some +ve heights to the N/NE, and slightly more southerly tracking lows than of recent times.

Edited by mb018538
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On 11/11/2020 at 23:13, Allseasons-si said:

And cue the music guys with a nice tranquil violin....

there is nothing to suggest that there is any cold shot in the latest cpc anomaly charts:-

610day_03.thumb.gif.5c12e5f6d1d7c96431d1d6b55144adb8.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.855d553841299d12ddd00a10e86d0c4e.gif

upper flow from a westerly prob veering NW'ly in the ext'd with hp cell to our southwest,so looks like a cool high where it is positioned,favored spots in the NW and on mountains could see some wintry potential from a NW'ly though but it does look typical for Autumn-yes AUTUMN😏

Looking at above anomalies, there has been a signal to switch the pattern of first half of November on its head during last third of the month. Perhaps no surprise to see models trending towards a synoptic of heights to our west/nw, and low heights to our ne. A NW flow likely pattern then. Chance of a northerly dependent on how deep roughing becomes to our NE. 

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Models no doubt latching on to a more typical late autumn la Nina forced imprint, ie mid Atlantic heights and trough to our east. A trend, we shall see? Recent departure from said pattern due to interference from tropical activity which has now run its course, balance re-set?

Edited by damianslaw
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16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'd follow snowking in exercising a little caution this morning.

Not to be a killjoy but the vast majority of times a Northerly of any description shows in the 144 timeframe without Greeny blocking tends to get watered down very quickly on subsequent runs...

 

I'd totally agree with that while wondering why the algorithms that drive such output have not been addressed....I would imagine there's be enough consistent misrepresentation in the modelling of this over the years to have warranted  someone at least taking a look at it?

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