Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion - Winter approaches


Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The clusters give you a feel for the extended


Need to see some consistency with the low heights driving se into w Europe back end week 2 

That link didn't work but copied and pasted it in google

it does show in the minority that there is heights into Scandi though Blue but the behavior of this trough i am sure won't be resolved just yet.

20201120220650-2e87f7ba54e3a3b87ec297d89c88d8dfef3ce63a.thumb.png.f6db21116ecc7192728a88022643227a.png

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Hi all . I’m back from my summer hibernation . A warm welcome to all the new members . It’s hard to believe we’re back again chasing those hard to come by good winter charts . It’s true the older

This is the ECM at 96 hrs v's the reanalysis for the 3rd of Nov 2010 and bears similarities in our part of the world now you wouldn't think that the epic winter of 2010 would come from that

Time to start wheeling out the ECM snow depth charts then 😍. Please remember it is mandatory to reply with how unreliable they are and how it accumulates all falling snow even if it doesn’t settle bla

Posted Images

Just now, Steve Murr said:

17E08FB1-AABC-4FEA-9555-EB3AE0D3907B.thumb.jpeg.45191492de75176f9175e6655937a982.jpeg

 

🤔🤔 ECM + GFS perhaps on the same page for a change...

I was about to say a quick check on the GFS has scuppered my going to bed... +156

gfsnh-0-156.png

Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM still not letting go the idea of +ht Anomalies towards Scandinavia. 

Trying to view things from a glass half full perspective it is worth watching I think as all modelling suggests Atlantic troughing heading more south east in the coming days. 

At least this will bring some colder interludes as we draw air from further north in the Atlantic. 

If the ECM is onto something and we see a block appear to the north east then Atlantic trough disruption would be the next step. 

A long shot at the moment but the NH profile is not the worst with the weakness in the PV over the Siberian sector.

At least we have a chance of a change in the medium term which I guess is better than looking at charts all saying raging zonalty. 

 

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting to note lowering height development over Iberia and N Africa, this should supress the azores high from wanting to ridge NE, and possibly help anchor the atlantic trough on a more NW-SE alignment.  We shall see.

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmmmm...

No doubt GFS will blow the block away but perhaps EC is onto something!!??

No doubt or a little perhaps? 

gfsnh-0-186.png

The pubs must have reopened? 

Edited by Griff
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gfs is a step in the right direction to the ECM as Steve says...

but we don't want these two lows to phase with one another,this would prevent blocking taking hold and cut off the cold feed west.

gfsnh-0-156.thumb.png.1699e5dae8e87e2b68e23b6015350e6f.png

TBH its a long shot of anything soon, there is a positive if that chart verified however, it might just buy us a little more time by breaking into the lower strat, even then though would prefer stronger waves.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Interestingly the pub GFS now considering the heights to the ne. 

Models keep coming back to this but just not yet in a reliable time frame. 

Let's see where we are tomorrow. 

 

  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Interestingly the pub GFS now considering the heights to the ne. 

Models keep coming back to this but just not yet in a reliable time frame. 

Let's see where we are tomorrow. 

 

With the PV positioned how it is, away from Siberia this does allow for height development to our NE, a bit of warm air advection in advance of the atlantic trough and this would also help to build such heights, trough disruption or NW-SE elongation would then be able to manifest as indicated by some of the models in recent days. Whilst not a path to anything notably cold, a more colder unsettled outlook could set in with PM shots at least. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Interestingly the pub GFS now considering the heights to the ne. 

Models keep coming back to this but just not yet in a reliable time frame. 

Let's see where we are tomorrow. 

 

Probably back down to earth from cloud cuckoo land with a full on zonal no doubt

that has been the theme in recent days with the morning runs much flatter

we just need these day ten charts to become unstuck. 

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Good evening everyone.

Lots of early winter obituaries in the last few days, and for good reason, but are we absolutely sure there isn’t a twist in the tale?

A closer inspection suggests that a long locked in zonal spell Isn’t quite nailed on yet. The models have yet to fully resolve the deconstruction of Tuesday’s trough and the angle of the jet crossing the Atlantic behind it. ECM control, op and mean + the latest GFS look a lot like the Nina phase 2 mjo composite.image.thumb.png.582a2271a404b64fbc6071cf61e69036.png

Even the Iberian low also present 

image.thumb.png.31eb9e1103f2fb2085d31dc20bffec0b.png

image.thumb.png.ddc93a8e79449cf02f81310b47b8a46b.png

The GEM too with a similar theme image.thumb.png.235570ab4724333a798874b48df98c3f.png

So we wake up tomorrow and 

a) All the energy goes North East, we curse the models and hours tick by on this forum without posts 

or

b) see a)

Seriously though , a much better evening since that ECM op. We’ll all by back tomorrow to check, that’s for sure 🙂

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Has ecm ever modelled blocking to the NE over Scandi at days 9 and 10 that actually verified in the end🤔

Yes. It has. December 2009. ECM, GFS, and later UKMO, all called the brilliant northern blocking without fail from the ultra FI charts, tick tock down to T-0. It was nailed on AND delivered!

But that was nirvana. Hasn't been repeated since!

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Yes. It has. December 2009. ECM, GFS, and later UKMO, all called the brilliant northern blocking without fail from the ultra FI charts, tick tock down to T-0. It was nailed on AND delivered!

But that was nirvana. Hasn't been repeated since!

SLEETY asked about Scandi blocking, 2009 wasn't via a Scandi block but (amazing) Greenland blocking, see attached image. 

 

NOAA_1_2009122018_1.png

NOAA_1_2009121918_1.png

Edited by NorthernRab
  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I have been constantly saying that people are prematurely writing things off.

Here's 10 years+ worth of experience of analysing model output. When you see certain nuances repeated in the output, you get a sense of where you may be headed next. Seeing the models attempting to have LP approaching negatively tilted, constant heights to the E and troughing struggling to make it past the meridian, you know something is stirring in the background.

I think the weariness is due to the EC46 being a little premature with it's wintry givings. I also look avidly for that negatively tilted atlantic trough scenario and it has to be said, that is the trend of today. The trend has got stronger through the day. 

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I have been constantly saying that people are prematurely writing things off.

Here's 10 years+ worth of experience of analysing model output. When you see certain nuances repeated in the output, you get a sense of where you may be headed next. Seeing the models attempting to have LP approaching negatively tilted, constant heights to the E and troughing struggling to make it past the meridian, you know something is stirring in the background.

Agree. There's 2 trends forming this Autumn time or run after run- the Azores High trying to ridge up towards Mid Atlantic has kept appearing. But also these increased heights towards the E this month as well. 

It's all pointing towards warm area invection. After all, what goes up.....must come down!  

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...