Model output discussion - Winter approaches

[Snipper]

What is considered to be the most consistent and accurate model as far as output is concerned? If you had to rely on just one what would it be? Is there any review of accuracy concerning the various outputs provided?

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Snipper said:

What is considered to be the most consistent and accurate model as far as output is concerned? If you had to rely on just one what would it be? Is there any review of accuracy concerning the various outputs provided?

EC verifies the best out to day 6/7. Beyond that you need to look at cross model ens charts concentrating on upper patterns (NOAA CPC) 

 

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, Snipper said:

What is considered to be the most consistent and accurate model as far as output is concerned? If you had to rely on just one what would it be? Is there any review of accuracy concerning the various outputs provided?

ECM is the daddy the UKMO is favourite son the GFS is the brat other son sometimes he has a point, he doesn’t receive much affection, sad really.

[Allseasons-Si]

The 12z ecm mean v's 00z at day ten...

clearly shows a pressure rise into Scandi,all hope may not be lost

if we can get this trough to our NW to disrupt S/SE like the op did then there could be possibilities from there,

a long shot i know...

 

 

Edited November 20, 2020 by Allseasons-si
Added more text.

[Griff]

13 hours ago, Griff said:

Oh dear all starting to look very familiar this morning... 

So is this out of date already? Almost as many flip flops on the ECM as... 

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, Griff said:

So is this out of date already? Almost as many flip flops on the ECM as... 

on Brighton beach?

[KeegansPerm]

20 minutes ago, Snipper said:

What is considered to be the most consistent and accurate model as far as output is concerned? If you had to rely on just one what would it be? Is there any review of accuracy concerning the various outputs provided?

It really depends what your interested in and the day (it varies), and it's like an arm's tace with all the modelling centres releasing at least a couple of new upgrades each year. You can check a whole host of verification statistics for many centres on ECMWFs charts verification section (link and sample image below). If you were to choose a single deterministic model though ECMWF would be the statistical choice....but just don't use it for snow depths without understanding it's overly snowy characteristics in marginal rain/snow events for example.

Not all centres solutions are fully independent either. I believe ICON (and potentially ARPEGE) use the ECMWF analysis for their models initial conditions, and the Korean and Australian models are older generations of the UKMO. ECMWF has a longer assimulation window (time to gather later observations than other modelling centres) as it does not appear until 3 hours after the other global models (a great advantage) as it is not needed to generate boundary conditions for limited area higher resolution models like the UKV and AROME that national met services have to run.

In general though the greatest success is found in looking at all (including ensembles), verifying against reality (work out sensitive regions), and weighting the output accordingly for biasses. We call this a multi-model or "poor man's ensemble", hard work but yields the best results.

 

http://apps.ecmwf.int//webapps/opencharts/favicon.ico ECMWF | Charts

APPS.ECMWF.INT

 

Overall looking for synoptics the one deterministic that would bring

[Daniel*]

Nowt mild on EPS very average as we approach early December but that would feel chilly on this month. Little rain for east much wetter in west quite ordinary really.

[IDO]

Little point placing any faith in D8-D10 ECM charts as the op is flawed with over-done heights. If there has been anything we have learnt over the last few years is to treat with caution until they reach D4! 

Looking at the mean, it might be possible that the op is in a cluster of one!

op>>  mean>> 

I am not saying it cannot happen, but it probably cannot happen!

When I looked at the ECM mean it was deja vu:

ecm D10 mean>>   gefs d10 mean>> 

 

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

Little point placing any faith in D8-D10 ECM charts as the op is flawed with over-done heights. If there has been anything we have learnt over the last few years is to treat with caution until they reach D4! 

Looking at the mean, it might be possible that the op is in a cluster of one!

op>>  mean>> 

I am not saying it cannot happen, but it probably cannot happen!

When I looked at the ECM mean it was deja vu:

ecm D10 mean>>   gefs d10 mean>> 

 

For what it's worth EC control day 10 and there are alot more members similar to op.

[DavidS]

ECM is obviously hungry as it picks up the high pressure ‘hot potato’ it dropped this morning. Moreover it hints at D10 as wanting to share said potato with Greenland. I remain for now, sceptical.

[SLEETY]

Thats 2nd time this week ECM has scandi High last two frames of its run,it dropped it the next run a few days ago.My interest might increase if its showing something similar tomorrow morning!

[northwestsnow]

I will assume looking at a rather uninspiring mean the op is an outlier...

Does show there are possibilities if we can steer enough energy into Europe...

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I will assume looking at a rather uninspiring mean the op is an outlier...

Does show there are possibilities if we can steer enough energy into Europe...

Resolving the split energy generally solves the conundrum ......and too much of it usually ends up headed ne 

[Tim Bland]

if it’s shown on the op then it’s a possibility. If any other member / ensemble was  ore reliable then that would be used as the op 

Also remember a mean isn’t always useful. If there are 50 white cars and 50 black cars in a car park then the mean is grey...there is 0 grey cars though that’s my positive take on it

[booferking]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I will assume looking at a rather uninspiring mean the op is an outlier...

Does show there are possibilities if we can steer enough energy into Europe...

I counted 20+ similar to op including the control let's see what the morning run brings could be case oftho

[nick sussex]

The ECM is one of those charts we’ve seen many times over recent winters .

More attention seeking behaviour ! We have the will it or won’t it regarding the blocking to the ne .

The main PV needs to clear further to the ne and stop feeding energy into the troughing to the west of the UK .

There is a chance then that we might see sufficient trough disruption. The main interest comes post day 7 and we haven’t exactly got a high success rate at that point so at the moment it’s still a lowish chance.

Any westwards corrections in future outputs would be much appreciated! 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

I did a bit of digging at the EPS timestamps and here is what i came up with and as you can see below are the upper dynamics of the 500mb geopotential height anomalies from the EPS(i don't have access to the extended but i think @bluearmy does and to name a few more) 

today's 192 v's Wed 240 and there are two marked differences,firstly you can see the trough to our NW digging/disrupting further south and secondly stronger heights into Scandi...

also Matt Hugo tweeted this not long ago.

 

[Snipper]

1 hour ago, KeegansPerm said:

It really depends what your interested in and the day (it varies), and it's like an arm's tace with all the modelling centres releasing at least a couple of new upgrades each year. You can check a whole host of verification statistics for many centres on ECMWFs charts verification section (link and sample image below). If you were to choose a single deterministic model though ECMWF would be the statistical choice....but just don't use it for snow depths without understanding it's overly snowy characteristics in marginal rain/snow events for example.

Not all centres solutions are fully independent either. I believe ICON (and potentially ARPEGE) use the ECMWF analysis for their models initial conditions, and the Korean and Australian models are older generations of the UKMO. ECMWF has a longer assimulation window (time to gather later observations than other modelling centres) as it does not appear until 3 hours after the other global models (a great advantage) as it is not needed to generate boundary conditions for limited area higher resolution models like the UKV and AROME that national met services have to run.

In general though the greatest success is found in looking at all (including ensembles), verifying against reality (work out sensitive regions), and weighting the output accordingly for biasses. We call this a multi-model or "poor man's ensemble", hard work but yields the best results.

 

http://apps.ecmwf.int//webapps/opencharts/favicon.ico ECMWF | Charts

APPS.ECMWF.INT

 

Overall looking for synoptics the one deterministic that would bring

Thanks to everyone for your responses. 

[Allseasons-Si]

14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM is one of those charts we’ve seen many times over recent winters .

More attention seeking behaviour ! We have the will it or won’t it regarding the blocking to the ne .

The main PV needs to clear further to the ne and stop feeding energy into the troughing to the west of the UK .

There is a chance then that we might see sufficient trough disruption. The main interest comes post day 7 and we haven’t exactly got a high success rate at that point so at the moment it’s still a lowish chance.

Any westwards corrections in future outputs would be much appreciated! 

 

And southwards,our goal posts are very tiny on this little patch of land 

[SLEETY]

Has ecm ever modelled blocking to the NE over Scandi at days 9 and 10 that actually verified in the end

Edited November 20, 2020 by SLEETY

[bluearmy]

23 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I did a bit of digging at the EPS timestamps and here is what i came up with and as you can see below are the upper dynamics of the 500mb geopotential height anomalies from the EPS(i don't have access to the extended but i think @bluearmy does and to name a few more) 

today's 192 v's Wed 240 and there are two marked differences,firstly you can see the trough to our NW digging/disrupting further south and secondly stronger heights into Scandi...

also Matt Hugo tweeted this not long ago.

 

The clusters give you a feel for the extended

http://apps.ecmwf.int//webapps/opencharts/favicon.ico ECMWF | Charts

APPS.ECMWF.INT

Need to see some consistency with the low heights driving se into w Europe back end week 2 

[Jason M]

1 hour ago, IDO said:

Little point placing any faith in D8-D10 ECM charts as the op is flawed with over-done heights. If there has been anything we have learnt over the last few years is to treat with caution until they reach D4! 

Looking at the mean, it might be possible that the op is in a cluster of one!

op>>  mean>> 

I am not saying it cannot happen, but it probably cannot happen!

When I looked at the ECM mean it was deja vu:

ecm D10 mean>>   gefs d10 mean>> 

 

100% agree with the first two sentences here. In reality anything at day 10 probably has exactly the same chance of occurring as me winning the lottery (I don't buy a ticket!). That said, its odd that you often use the day 10 mean charts as they are a complete waste of pixels  because they either tend to climatology (at best) or just show a middle ground between several equally wrong extreme scenarios (at worst).

People have different opinions and I get that but for me the means don't have much use beyond day 8 except in extremely rare circumstances.

Despite this I agree with your conclusion which seems to be that there is virtually no chance of anything significantly cold over the next two weeks. Of course I'd love to be proved wrong!

 

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The clusters give you a feel for the extended

http://apps.ecmwf.int//webapps/opencharts/favicon.ico ECMWF | Charts

APPS.ECMWF.INT

Need to see some consistency with the low heights driving se into w Europe back end week 2 

That link didn't work but copied and pasted it in google

it does show in the minority that there is heights into Scandi though Blue but the behavior of this trough i am sure won't be resolved just yet.

 

[SMU]

 

ECM + GFS perhaps on the same page for a change...