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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


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Hi all . I’m back from my summer hibernation . A warm welcome to all the new members . It’s hard to believe we’re back again chasing those hard to come by good winter charts . It’s true the older

This is the ECM at 96 hrs v's the reanalysis for the 3rd of Nov 2010 and bears similarities in our part of the world now you wouldn't think that the epic winter of 2010 would come from that

Time to start wheeling out the ECM snow depth charts then 😍. Please remember it is mandatory to reply with how unreliable they are and how it accumulates all falling snow even if it doesn’t settle bla

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8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

i wrote slider earlier - it is more systems traversing a subdued but ebbing mid atlantic ridge - good to see heights dropping in Europe and this is what i was referencing early this morning re the clusters 

Certainly would be nice to see the jet heading SE....

The winter window is now open for me personally.A nicely positioned anticyvlone can produce cold nights ...I dont envisage a Greeny high but pondering Sceuro heights longer term....

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1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Looks like the rapid slide into unsettled conditions gathers apace. Atlantic really gearing up through next week. Bye bye high pressure.

MB thank you so much for detailed responses on Vortex a very informative post.. yep looking increasingly unsettled as next week progresses and not mild..  cold rain and 6 & 7s for the south if I was pushed

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54 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looks like the rapid slide into unsettled conditions gathers apace. Atlantic really gearing up through next week. Bye bye high pressure.

I don’t see it? Only in the realms of fantasy on the GFS

It looks mild to start and then trending to average in the South next week and drier than average?

DF39AED9-4A03-48CF-9212-D771F347EAD9.thumb.jpeg.db8096f485dd5da67cd1bf68ff2c4b97.jpeg2390B5AC-4889-42A5-9873-C3822F2776F2.thumb.jpeg.7551f7c863ea145558b2247696e5695f.jpeg
 

UKMO charts I posted previously also look decent for the South right out to the 18th. (That’s as far as it goes)
 

If anything it looks quite pleasant and high pressure won’t be far away from Southern England - looks rather beign/quiet down there for all of next week. 

Even further North Manchester looks decent. 

02B8032E-4121-404A-8117-1D37F10E8E30.thumb.jpeg.bd27caedbb2b90fc109699417c9207be.jpeg

 


London:

C6AAACE7-9B4A-437D-BF8F-502F9628D931.thumb.jpeg.b3f58fbd62855559560db4130be1e976.jpeg

 

If I lived down there I wouldn’t be expecting the Atlantic to roar though until at least the very end of November/start of December. 

We shall see of course! 😀
 

Edit: @mb018538 (post below) I will stick with what I said/charts I posted after seeing that BBC outlook! Chris Fawkes had absolutely no confidence in that forecast! 😄

Edited by Mr Frost
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22 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

I don’t see it? Only in the realms of fantasy on the GFS

It looks mild to start and then trending to average in the South next week and drier than average?

DF39AED9-4A03-48CF-9212-D771F347EAD9.thumb.jpeg.db8096f485dd5da67cd1bf68ff2c4b97.jpeg2390B5AC-4889-42A5-9873-C3822F2776F2.thumb.jpeg.7551f7c863ea145558b2247696e5695f.jpeg
 

UKMO charts I posted previously also look decent for the South right out to the 18th. (That’s as far as it goes)
 

If anything it looks quite pleasant and high pressure won’t be far away from Southern England - looks rather beign/quiet down there for all of next week. 

Even further North Manchester looks decent. 

02B8032E-4121-404A-8117-1D37F10E8E30.thumb.jpeg.bd27caedbb2b90fc109699417c9207be.jpeg

 


London:

C6AAACE7-9B4A-437D-BF8F-502F9628D931.thumb.jpeg.b3f58fbd62855559560db4130be1e976.jpeg

 

If I lived down there I wouldn’t be expecting the Atlantic to roar though until at least the very end of November/start of December. 

We shall see of course! 😀

Those anomaly charts you posted are from the 9th - if you go and look at the output from 3 days ago, it looked pretty good with high pressure and drier dominating. Sadly we’ve seen a big shift to unsettled coming through in the last few days.

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

Generally mild with spells of wind and rain to come in the days ahead. Chris Fawkes has the details for...


Tonights latest bbc long ranger illustrates this pretty well I think 🙂

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12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Those anomaly charts you posted are from the 9th - if you go and look at the output from 3 days ago, it looked pretty good with high pressure and drier dominating. Sadly we’ve seen a big shift to unsettled coming through in the last few days.

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

Generally mild with spells of wind and rain to come in the days ahead. Chris Fawkes has the details for...


Tonights latest bbc long ranger illustrates this pretty well I think 🙂

You can see by comparing tonight’s ECM T144 with yesterday’s T168 . Definitely changed to more unsettled and 850s a lot lower . 
 

T168 yesterday 3B46DC7A-3AE3-4FE4-B605-0175FB61E37A.thumb.png.65a9e632c98ff5bf9e583c52969bd5d1.pngED6F7B41-5DB2-4C52-9747-3CBFEC1BB282.thumb.png.103c031c8e5f232f99bb45b5468544d9.png

T144 today 5F68F688-FF65-42F0-B5F6-357ECECB5A4A.thumb.png.f6b7be3181080029e931422b07149f85.png2232925B-3B18-4910-BC09-4C0213F82A00.thumb.png.756599b181cec08b2446c947a4c656ba.png

A big change 

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11 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

What’s going on here!? This ECM must be an outlier @mb018538 😂👀

02C60888-EC28-4E8E-8399-EABFD59F8D04.thumb.jpeg.3ea37af490dc8e7f8d8b022176a342ea.jpeg6BAA6C8E-923E-4D5D-877A-FE3A3CCAF4D3.thumb.jpeg.6b4a36e61cfbd027ac3d3fa304ef7948.jpeg
 

Tell you what mate if that becomes reality for that date (19/11) I will buy you a three month Netweather extra full subscription and that’s a promise. 

Three? How about six 😂

I suspect the ecm op will be a big outlier again when the ensembles appear an hour or so later. Pressure much higher than the other output this evening, much like the 00z.

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Looking at the GEFS 12z we could be using the 4 letter S word soon..not the one that ends with T which usually describes our weather for coldies..perhaps the one that ends with W!!!😜🧐 ❄️ 

17928603-2A98-4134-8B90-8BA6B33A3D63.thumb.jpeg.942d87c06b740c5af02437e1a3c7747e.jpeg7D1FCBA4-3F1A-4981-A4FA-EB4320584661.thumb.jpeg.db79de1016128387ca045670dd30266f.jpeg3B3890BA-F162-4A74-9949-EF2B537EC3CE.thumb.jpeg.f380031c42726c8c13a538b5157a04a7.jpeg47AEC978-959F-40FB-ACF1-BFE4258CE481.thumb.jpeg.dc662bd6e225170e5e4a9c5eb43d7354.jpeg

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Ukmo overnight run brings in a surprise northerly to Scotland in 6 days time, would be cold enough for lowland snow in the far north.

Gfs has a similar colder shot but not aligned as well and the rest of the run is pure pants.

Both models fail to remove high pressure over Iberia so any colder weather will be short lived.

Still a long way to go.

Andy

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15 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Ukmo overnight run brings in a surprise northerly to Scotland in 6 days time, would be cold enough for lowland snow in the far north.

Gfs has a similar colder shot but not aligned as well and the rest of the run is pure pants.

Both models fail to remove high pressure over Iberia so any colder weather will be short lived.

Still a long way to go.

Andy

Latest GFS 0z so close yet so far to a lovely Easterly those heights over Spain like you say the party pooper probably cold enough for some wintry weather over the Northern highlands though no late November 2010 but who knows it could change spectacularly like 2010 did for us in Kent!

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20201113_050157.jpg

Edited by Kentspur
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