Jump to content

Model output discussion - Winter approaches


Recommended Posts

Yup. All this talk of favourable macro climate help this Winter proving all for naught.

That ECM run is a horror show. Rampant Greenland PV and flat powerful Atlantic jet as bad as it could be.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Hi all . I’m back from my summer hibernation . A warm welcome to all the new members . It’s hard to believe we’re back again chasing those hard to come by good winter charts . It’s true the older

This is the ECM at 96 hrs v's the reanalysis for the 3rd of Nov 2010 and bears similarities in our part of the world now you wouldn't think that the epic winter of 2010 would come from that

Time to start wheeling out the ECM snow depth charts then 😍. Please remember it is mandatory to reply with how unreliable they are and how it accumulates all falling snow even if it doesn’t settle bla

Posted Images

I am questioning the usefulness of seasonal models which showed much higher probability of blocking in the Atlantic in Nov/Dec, reality being any blocking hope so far came from EC/GFS charts post 192h and in Scandi not Atlantic. Going forward only looks worse. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, jules216 said:

I am questioning the usefulness of seasonal models which showed much higher probability of blocking in the Atlantic in Nov/Dec, reality being any blocking hope so far came from EC/GFS charts post 192h and in Scandi not Atlantic. Going forward only looks worse. 

But their was supposed to be the La Nina footprint so not unexpected. 

The reality is that despite La Nina, favourable IDO, uncoupled strat/Trop PV, solar minimum etc  the Winter weather is the same as ever.

Edited by mountain shadow
  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

But their was supposed to be the La Nina footprint so not unexpected. 

The reality is that despite La Nina, favourable IDO, uncoupled strat/Trop PV, solar minimum etc  the Winter weather is the same as ever.

It’s not winter yet👍🏼

  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS ends with the PV in tatters and -18 uppers over Scandinavia - ready to pounce if the dice fall in our favor . Chin up folks it’s not even winter yet...

11AB2E65-FDA9-4434-AF16-CBE781FC2CA0.png

44449FE3-9690-4F06-85CE-524318515D7C.png

  • Like 9
Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning - The ECM now backed away from the over amplified postition & is now back in line with the GFS..

Nothing cold on the cards, maybe some wet chilly days.

Awful outlook TBH.

  • Like 8
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Heading out of November into the first week of December, the small picture, the UK, and it is wetter than drier, cooler than warmer, not really zonal, more trough influenced with the Azores High omnipresent, oscillating at times. All-in-all very typical UK time-wasting winter weather.

D8-16: anim_iob1.gif

The bigger picture has the sPV powering up and the tPV more organised than not. There is a suggestion an MJO wave is not showing up in the models yet (Twitter-sphere) so maybe some changes?

So for a predicted front-loaded winter, it is uninspiring.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, saintkip said:

It’s not winter yet👍🏼

Indeed.

But if the day 10 ECM is anywhere right  then we would be at least a couple of weeks from a proper Winter spell, which would take us into Winter.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Typical November output this morning. 

Any potential blocking being swept away from the west. 

Plenty of unsettled weather and feeling colder at times with the mean jet path further south. 

 

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Very disappointed with ecm also met office pressure rise over and to the northeast of uk

all gone,all change from 168hrs onwards.gfs definitely the winner.Met office will need to

change their 6 to 30 day forecast if gfs is correct.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Much frustration on here this morning and is it any wonder? Most winters since 2010 have been a bore fest so the gnawing of teeth is very understandable. As Anthony has already mentioned, it's going to be interesting to see if the meto extended gets revised soon. 

  • Like 2
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Can we keep it to the models in here please, speculation about winter overall, climate change etc are all fine to discuss but in the relevant threads for them.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Met office will need to

change their 6 to 30 day forecast if gfs is correct.

I disagree. If I was the met forecaster I’d be fairly happy for the time being. The GFS shows an unsettled spell with northwesterly / PM incursions with uppers around -4c so showers turning wintry over the higher ground. Met office 6-30 dayer says ..

”Unsettled interludes bringing spells of rain and strong winds are still likely at times, especially in the north and west. Temperatures look to be around average with increasing incidence of overnight frost, as is typical for this time of year, as well as bringing an increasing chance of wintry precipitation over high ground.”

3467BEB7-5230-4EEA-A431-F61A397CFC52.png

DF61F879-1E75-4411-8FB1-70BDAAA04070.png

  • Like 9
Link to post
Share on other sites

Good cold spells often arise from a spell of model-watching that go through spells of total optimism  to total despair such as we are seeing now.

I'm now strangely more confident of something coming along of a wintry nature soon, even if we're not getting November 2010, I can't explain why but It just seems to be how these things go. I'll be expecting to see a lot more optimism in here come tomorrow.  :)

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes Tim B, The Models certainly showing very avg/normal weather for late Autumn as we head into Winter with cool sometimes cold PM shots from the N/W with some milder air being drawn up as systems pass.

Edited by Polar Maritime
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

This is from Twitter.

The models are missing a developing MJO wave that’s strengthening over the Indian Ocean. Two week forecast uncertainty is quite high because of this.
Anybody know why this is happening??

are we going to a sudden shift in the models??

Edited by fromey
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, fromey said:

This is from Twitter.

The models are missing a developing MJO wave that’s strengthening over the Indian Ocean. Two week forecast uncertainty is quite high because of this.
Anybody know why this is happening??

are we going to a sudden shift in the models??

Who tweeted that? If true, then yep, good question as to why the models are missing it. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, fromey said:

This is from Twitter.

The models are missing a developing MJO wave that’s strengthening over the Indian Ocean. Two week forecast uncertainty is quite high because of this.
Anybody know why this is happening??

are we going to a sudden shift in the models??

I've not seen this fromey but I'd guess it would cause the earlier blocking signal however short it was to flip to a more normal base outlook currently. Mabye Sharon tropposy could nip on here and give a clue 🙃🙃🙃

Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, fromey said:

This is from Twitter.

The models are missing a developing MJO wave that’s strengthening over the Indian Ocean. Two week forecast uncertainty is quite high because of this.
Anybody know why this is happening??

are we going to a sudden shift in the models??

Is this a potential good shift from a coldies perspective or a further shift away from Nivea 

Link to post
Share on other sites

You would think today's 6z 144h chart for next Tuesday would be more accurate than yesterday's 168h chart for the same time. Lets hope so because the 144h chart shows the trough to the west showing a significant negative tilt when compared to yesterday's 168h chart which showed it positively tilted. To anyone who isn't sure what negative tilt refers to then just think of the trough doing a limbo dance 😊

Screenshot_20201120-101519.png

Screenshot_20201120-101430.png

Edited by blizzard81
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, fromey said:

This is from Twitter.

The models are missing a developing MJO wave that’s strengthening over the Indian Ocean. Two week forecast uncertainty is quite high because of this.
Anybody know why this is happening??

are we going to a sudden shift in the models??

It probably applies more to America then us first = Pacific jet behavior. EC has very weak MJO but there are discussions on twitter that models are not seeing propagation trough maritime continent which may happen. For us any effect would be felt if MJO is to continue through western Pacific in to phase 7 at least to induce enough of a Rossby wave train to help promoting blocking to the north = raising AAM momentum. But the interference of La Nina easterlies may not help. That is why there was a debate about EP La Nina being better then CP La Nina. With CP La Nina it is unlikely that MJO would be favored to enter phases 7 and 8. With this configuration at the moment we have a hybrid Nina with ENSO region of 4 seen a slight moderation in recent weeks, but note sure weather overall easterly tropical element will permit MJO to effect European weather regimes. 

But perhaps if EC long range has initialized MJO parametres wrong then their zonal 46d would be probably wrong, that is the hope. Any MJO infuence may only be seen after Dec 10 in weather models. 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I disagree. If I was the met forecaster I’d be fairly happy for the time being. The GFS shows an unsettled spell with northwesterly / PM incursions with uppers around -4c so showers turning wintry over the higher ground. Met office 6-30 dayer says ..

”Unsettled interludes bringing spells of rain and strong winds are still likely at times, especially in the north and west. Temperatures look to be around average with increasing incidence of overnight frost, as is typical for this time of year, as well as bringing an increasing chance of wintry precipitation over high ground.”

3467BEB7-5230-4EEA-A431-F61A397CFC52.png

DF61F879-1E75-4411-8FB1-70BDAAA04070.png

Met office also say more settled conditions over U.K.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Paul locked and unpinned this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...