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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    20201118103347-a0ccea31b43bdc9e6747ecc252c5561fcf66fb6b.thumb.png.a4b95b72b4ae042b796e38ff810296d0.png

    Based on the latest ECM clusters, the modelling is reasonably well-weighted towards a zonal pattern between D11 and D15 (cluster 1). Storms likely, frost and snow not.

    Cluster 2, which is far from an outlier cluster, offers something a bit more amplified - but experience from this model suggests coldies shouldn't be too hopeful that this will become reality.  Growing heights west of Greenland would give a chance of cold zonality for the UK, though, and could result in early wintriness for northern areas / high ground a few days after D15. But that's so speculative it's hardly worth mentioning at the moment.

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    Hi all . I’m back from my summer hibernation . A warm welcome to all the new members . It’s hard to believe we’re back again chasing those hard to come by good winter charts . It’s true the older

    This is the ECM at 96 hrs v's the reanalysis for the 3rd of Nov 2010 and bears similarities in our part of the world now you wouldn't think that the epic winter of 2010 would come from that

    Time to start wheeling out the ECM snow depth charts then 😍. Please remember it is mandatory to reply with how unreliable they are and how it accumulates all falling snow even if it doesn’t settle bla

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Nice to see the 'building blocks' in place, by T+72!😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Ukmo t144. Possible interest for those in the far north. 

    567CB8BC-0DE4-4038-B572-A5430314D550.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    8 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Nice to see the 'building blocks' in place, by T+72!😁

    Just don’t neglect the cement between now and the 18Z 🥴

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    Met office sticking to its guns,in regards to high pressure being the dominant feature 

    at end of month over most of U.K. with the northwest being perhaps the exception.

    exact positioning still up for grabs,possibly over U.K. or to the east.

    Fog and frost becoming more likely at end of the month.

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

    Ukmo t144. Possible interest for those in the far north. 

    567CB8BC-0DE4-4038-B572-A5430314D550.png

    In isolation that actually looks promising with appearance of Atlantic high ridging into a gap over Greenland and no raging vortex.. on these occasions I curse the longer range models which on this occasion appear to flatten the lot.

    Too much info bring back ignorant bliss I say 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    After the disappointment of the last model tease with blocking to the east ne imploding slightly more encouraging is the trend now to add more amplification upstream .

    Showing up now within the day 6 timeframe .

    In the medium term is what happens after the low to west clears east . What does the next low do in terms of track .

    Se and it could open up a gap to the ne to develop a lobe of high pressure , also in terms of depth, will it be a bowling ball low or will it fill more quickly allowing more of a slider type low .

    So something to look out for in the next few runs .

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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

    GFS - First of all lets drain all the precious cold air away from Europe with the cut of low west of Ireland, when that is achieved why don't for once allow the low heights to progress trough to the continent where upper are around +5 so what we all get is a lot of rain. 😃🙂😃

    Edited by Mapantz
    Swearing unnecessary
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    59 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

    Met office sticking to its guns,in regards to high pressure being the dominant feature 

    at end of month over most of U.K. with the northwest being perhaps the exception.

    exact positioning still up for grabs,possibly over U.K. or to the east.

    Fog and frost becoming more likely at end of the month.

    Let’s hope they are seeing something we aren’t. None of the output I’m viewing shows anything like high pressure dominating in 12 days time.

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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

    spacer.pngICON 12 z @ t144

    spacer.pngUKMO 12 z @ t144

    spacer.pngGFS 12z @ t144

    ICON , UKMO and GFS 12 z so far showing fairly similar things at day 6 with the emergence of Atlantic high pressure. 

    Will be interesting to see ECM 12 z later to see whether this is also modelled .

    Could it ridge up towards Greenland  ( Met O 6-30 day outlook hints that it might ) ?

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Midlothian
  • Location: Midlothian
    6 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

    spacer.pngICON 12 z @ t144

    spacer.pngUKMO 12 z @ t144

    spacer.pngGFS 12z @ t144

    ICON , UKMO and GFS 12 z so far showing fairly similar things at day 6 with the emergence of Atlantic high pressure. 

    Will be interesting to see ECM 12 z later to see whether this is also modelled .

    Could it ridge up towards Greenland  ( Met O 6-30 day outlook hints that it might ) ?

     

    looks likely to get blown away according to all the modes sadly for people who crave cold weather from north or east 

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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

    Thanks for the explanation Steve ( above )

     

    spacer.png

    Meanwhile some fun for the Scottish Hills tomorrow !

    Edited by Jeremy Shockey
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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    Ref the UKMO. Decent chart on the face of it but the ridging, which is better than the GFS Op, and virtually all of the ens will most likely topple as the next system piles in.

    UKMO

    UKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.b9b3f8a63513ca3b7ee5247c45ecddc7.png

    Compared to GFS Op

    GFSOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.9a4bd289fe6f2354845f6715e1ad584f.png

     

    Whilst there seems to currently be very little appetite for that system to disrupt, P03 does show the system downstream (the one just to the NE of Iceland) disrupting, creating a cutoff low, and bringing about a far more favourable outcome...

     

    I'm not saying this is more likely (It is currently not), just something to look out for (or cling on to? 🙂 ) in the coming few days of chart outputs.

    GFSP03EU12_144_1.thumb.png.da3786889d1460745021d9c8eab14e6e.pngGFSP03EU12_156_1.thumb.png.a1eb972df83b7550bb97756d916d9bf5.pngGFSP03EU12_180_1.thumb.png.3a96388b312e682269ac8ec9a73731bc.png

     

    Edited by s4lancia
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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    24 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Let’s hope they are seeing something we aren’t. None of the output I’m viewing shows anything like high pressure dominating in 12 days time.

    A few weeks ago we all thought a cold easterly would be hereby now, that’s what the models were telling us ( hence the CET comp 🥴) but the Met O wasn’t having none of it and stuck to there guns and so far they’ve got it more or less spot on, so atm they are the only ones I have confidence in, especially the way the models have been of late 🙄

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    1 minute ago, Dancerwithwings said:

    A few weeks ago we all thought a cold easterly would be hereby now, that’s what the models were telling us ( hence the CET comp 🥴) but the Met O wasn’t having none of it and stuck to there guns and so far they’ve got it more or less spot on, so atm they are the only ones I have confidence in, especially the way the models have been of late 🙄

    Not all of us, Dancer... not that my guess of 8C will be any good!😁

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Very downbeat assessment from Steve.

    Of course that is a concern as he is absolutely a glass half full person..

    Until we see strat coupling with trop im a little more optimistic at this juncture.

    Let's see where we are regarding NWP in a few weeks time...

    Have to say November is turning into an absolute horror show locally, really want a break from this incessant rain now...

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
    13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Very downbeat assessment from Steve.

    Of course that is a concern as he is absolutely a glass half full person..

    Until we see strat coupling with trop im a little more optimistic at this juncture.

    Let's see where we are regarding NWP in a few weeks time...

    Have to say November is turning into an absolute horror show locally, really want a break from this incessant rain now...

    To be honest, having been an avid model watcher for over 15 years now and being very used to models imploding on a cold outlook, even i am very surprised by their poor handling of the high which was surposed to be building and ridging north about this time. Hopefuly the Met have this going forewards into December, im not even obsessed by deep cold at this time, but a change in constant gloom, wind and drizzle will make a stark improvement in mine and others general mood in these rather depressing times. Some signs the south will improve somewhat as lows take up their more usual position to the north west of the UK, hopefully we can get a countrywide ridge out of this shortly. 

    Get the high and the cold will follow 😊  

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    2 hours ago, Anthony Burden said:

    Met office sticking to its guns,in regards to high pressure being the dominant feature 

    at end of month over most of U.K. with the northwest being perhaps the exception.

    exact positioning still up for grabs,possibly over U.K. or to the east.

    Fog and frost becoming more likely at end of the month.

    Isn't that forecast on the autumn thread 🤔🤔🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    24 minutes ago, KTtom said:

    To be honest, having been an avid model watcher for over 15 years now and being very used to models imploding on a cold outlook, even i am very surprised by their poor handling of the high which was surposed to be building and ridging north about this time. Hopefuly the Met have this going forewards into December, im not even obsessed by deep cold at this time, but a change in constant gloom, wind and drizzle will make a stark improvement in mine and others general mood in these rather depressing times. Some signs the south will improve somewhat as lows take up their more usual position to the north west of the UK, hopefully we can get a countrywide ridge out of this shortly. 

    Get the high and the cold will follow 😊  

    The METOs outlook for December is actually very good for coldies, getting more wintery as we head mid month. Subject to change obviously but with GFS FI only just hitting December there’s lots to play for heading into Winter. A nice dry cold HP will be appreciated to start with.

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    ECM at 192...

    ECH1-192.thumb.gif.50994d3b029b81084b7eabd11afcb519.gif

    here we go again @ modelled high pressure #3,726...of the season.

    day ten could be interesting,now where have i heard that before😜

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    @ 216

    ECH1-216.thumb.gif.27d21184c2c45d3397accb5362f7b37b.gif

    @trough...disrupt you git😄

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