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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Afternoon. Not a great start to the 12z.icon a bit rank and gfs looks ominous to the nw PV wise pre 200 hours. Not sure whether a spell of unsettled weather from the northwest is popular but for high ground esp Scotland not all bad. It's obv better than a bartlett set up ete. See how it pans out in fi butbi suspect the greenie high is off the table, for now👌👌

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    Hi all . I’m back from my summer hibernation . A warm welcome to all the new members . It’s hard to believe we’re back again chasing those hard to come by good winter charts . It’s true the older

    This is the ECM at 96 hrs v's the reanalysis for the 3rd of Nov 2010 and bears similarities in our part of the world now you wouldn't think that the epic winter of 2010 would come from that

    Time to start wheeling out the ECM snow depth charts then 😍. Please remember it is mandatory to reply with how unreliable they are and how it accumulates all falling snow even if it doesn’t settle bla

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    We have rapidly lost the Atlantic amplification and WAA which drove the sceuro heights for week 2 

    would usually be fairly relaxed about changes like this but given that we have seen two ec ops with this solution, the inclination is to give it a fair amount of credence 

    the extended eps clusters offered quite a split solution late week 2 so still some way to go to know how the month might end 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    We have rapidly lost the Atlantic amplification and WAA which drove the sceuro heights for week 2 

    would usually be fairly relaxed about changes like this but given that we have seen two ec ops with this solution, the inclination is to give it a fair amount of credence 

    the extended eps clusters offered quite a split solution late week 2 so still some way to go to know how the month might end 

    While i can't pin down exactly how it will end, I think to be honest i can have a pretty educated guess how it wont end - significantly below average temperatures and wintry precipitation.

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Looking at the swings on the models over the last few days I'd be inclined to agree with blue army and his observation. There seems to be a fair mix of options so maybe all is not lost in regard to some substantial riding going forward

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Nothing interesting regarding cold for at least the next 1o days now.Another fail from the models.Be surprised if anything remotely cold appears with below average temps for a prolonged period for longer than that.

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    16 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    Nothing interesting regarding cold for at least the next 1o days now.Another fail from the models.Be surprised if anything remotely cold appears with below average temps for a prolonged period for longer than that.

    I'd agree the last few runs have backtracked. That said the fact that all models did pick up a blocking signal and ran with it shouldn't be totally discounted?? See how it pans out over the coming days 👍just to note the gfs 12z looks like a bog standard late autumn run imo

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    My, that was gripping -- like watching Gone With The Wind!😴

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Good grief what happened to the British stiff upper lip ???

    Its mid November people, let's not get too downbeat when we are still in Autumn ...

    I'm hopeful things will look much healthier in a weeks time on the NWP..

    Eqbo in the lower strat should prevent those horrible westerlies penetrate  the Trop.  

    We certainly need to see no coupling of Strat and trop, the vortex looks strong again at the moment.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Maybe there are signs of a cool down right at the end of the gfs run or is the trop pv monkeying about with us😆

    gfsnh-0-378.thumb.png.1df801f6ac7b7d5a85aadf88b3519c46.png62079478_gelada-bighair.thumb.jpg.7c3b1173986c560e3c7f28f4023900e3.jpg

    awaits the control/ens.

     

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Orebro, Sweden
  • Weather Preferences: Summer time: 26-29 degrees and partly cloudy. Winter time: -4 to -7 and sun
  • Location: Orebro, Sweden

    GFS 12Z looks like cold zonal to me, 850 uppers of -15 just south of iceland is not bad for this time of year.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

    The problem with PM shots in recent years is uppers of -8 invariably are not enough even at 200m asl in the west  Pennine foothills due to the warming seas...

    Snow line locally from North Westerlies tends to be 250m asl and above with uppers of -8, broadly speaking.

    Easterlies please !!

    In a slacker flow we've had snow falling here with uppers of -5 from an Irish Sea streamer...55m asl

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    In a slacker flow we've had snow falling here with uppers of -5 from an Irish Sea streamer...55m asl

    But how often has that actually amounted to anything with likely daytime temps of 4c??

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    Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
    55 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    Nothing interesting regarding cold for at least the next 1o days now.

    Keep the faith mate! Always a wee risk of some wintry showers down South over high ground on Thursday. (AM especially)

    Depends how far South these showers push and if this chart will actually become reality! 😄

    Thursday 09:00

    D93CAE36-59F6-40E5-97D8-8E50D9895403.thumb.jpeg.4995bf7eb4fba8f32737093ec86f65f5.jpeg

     

    Wee bit of green there on the above chart for high ground of Wales and North York Moors - the cold upper 850HPA temps also make it pretty far South during the afternoon.

    74C96D81-A3C2-4EFA-9A15-6088BAE71DDA.thumb.jpeg.c7dfbc9ecb2d279247538c4489774630.jpeg
     

    You never know - could be some wintry cloudscapes/hail/thunder wherever these showers turn up on low ground in the North, South, East or West. 

    Risk of frost on Thursday night/Friday morning also.

    Best we can hope for at the moment and it is still Autumn. :santa-emoji:

    Edited by Mr Frost
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Well there is still quite a few gefs ens disrupting the trough near or west of the UK by day ten> including the control

    here is a select few

    gensnh-0-1-252.thumb.png.e8c18225ddb287dea0958a08db3b533c.pnggensnh-2-1-252.thumb.png.39f230c3581c96a43220d82437d57a91.pnggensnh-3-1-252.thumb.png.71504d8760b25a59c88c69f607cb8ed2.pnggensnh-4-1-252.thumb.png.f710d193927837d6de37acb909926392.pnggensnh-6-1-252.thumb.png.1fd60c2b056b822ea6df4f21e4e29adf.pnggensnh-7-1-252.thumb.png.f62615eea01fcb63b52049aa27d9b0b6.png

    then check out Pert 19

    gensnh-19-1-252.thumb.png.d7a8a7a0702381304769781774f73feb.pnggensnh-19-0-252.thumb.png.b825f8af0d26374ce14af59bd9c67564.png

    so maybe not a done deal on blowing the block away

    more runs needed...

    tenor.thumb.gif.fb9966d075300d49c11a417a026aa34b.gif

     

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    22 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    My, that was gripping -- like watching Gone With The Wind!😴

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Yes GC you could say its a bit anal👀anyway all subject to change has they say 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    In a slacker flow we've had snow falling here with uppers of -5 from an Irish Sea streamer...55m asl

    Also depends on other factors. Longevity of cold shot is also key as under a -8C 850 airmass snow level would fall with time as warmer layers get mixed out. Problem with PM shots is that they rarely last more than 24-36 hours as next set of fronts usually barrel in from the west.  

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    16 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    In a slacker flow we've had snow falling here with uppers of -5 from an Irish Sea streamer...55m asl

    Its possible mate.

    But I've been left wet not white with uppers of -8 before now...at 200m...

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Its possible mate.

    But I've been left wet not white with uppers of -8 before now...at 200m...

    Yep, bit of a lottery with PM flows

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, CreweCold said:

    Yep, bit of a lottery with PM flows

    Partly why I obsess over Irish sea ssts every winter...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    ECM 00z may have been disappointing with lack of blocking but at least looking more seasonal. Nights in double figures at this time of year are just wrong. Average min here in London, Docklands so far 7.3C (+1.5C) and max 13.5 (+2.2C) no saving this month from being very mild. Much of country has mean temps 3C above average - exceptional, greatest anomalies in SE/EA.

    B854AA3E-3387-42FE-B5A6-A7D2B0DB424B.thumb.png.e952792864445e9c27b6af798adc31e6.png173D8AD9-A142-405F-8CDB-2A839025E613.thumb.jpeg.7a91d483d1b571f2d3f6c9dc96bcff19.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    53 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

    GFS 12Z looks like cold zonal to me, 850 uppers of -15 just south of iceland is not bad for this time of year.

    Yes, it’s an awesome run...if you are just south of Iceland 🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    1 hour ago, Arch Stanton said:

    It's best to ignore charts like that that far out - they hardly ever come true. If Europe and Scandanavia stay mild then so do we - just like happened last winter.

     

    1 hour ago, Arch Stanton said:

    It's best to ignore charts like that that far out - they hardly ever come true. If Europe and Scandanavia stay mild then so do we - just like happened last winter.

    I'll be ignoring nothing in the fi this is model thread discussion and if the signals are pointing towards charts like that in fi (ie) metoffice outlook la nina footprint then charts like this have merit by the way the chart posted is not exactly winter wonderland it's a cold zonality only wintry showers for the north hence metoffice outlook oh and there it appears again.🙂

    gfsnh-0-384.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
    54 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    How so?

    With respect, there hasn't been a failure at all. The models show possible outcomes and it's down to the individual to explore other model data, rather than relying on a single operational run each time.

    Also, I think the models being a failure could been seen as a subjective aspect. What could be a failure for one person, might not be a failure to someone else. For example, the models failing with a cold spell won’t be seen as the same thing for someone who hates chilly weather. Edit: But does all come down to how we see things.

    Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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