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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


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Hi all . I’m back from my summer hibernation . A warm welcome to all the new members . It’s hard to believe we’re back again chasing those hard to come by good winter charts . It’s true the older

This is the ECM at 96 hrs v's the reanalysis for the 3rd of Nov 2010 and bears similarities in our part of the world now you wouldn't think that the epic winter of 2010 would come from that

Time to start wheeling out the ECM snow depth charts then 😍. Please remember it is mandatory to reply with how unreliable they are and how it accumulates all falling snow even if it doesn’t settle bla

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19 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

GFS 6z not up and running yet ? Tried at couple of sites and it’s not updating. Maybe it’s been stopped for good , probably not a bad thing 🤣🤣

Folklore tells you its a sign for a colder winter.👀

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23 minutes ago, booferking said:

Here she comes guys run of the year trickling out.😄:snowman-emoji:

I think it will take that long lol:drunk-emoji:

there is a message on there now:-

GFS 06Z is late because of a distribution data problem by NOAA/NCEP.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I think it will take that long:drunk-emoji:

there is a message on there now:-

GFS 06Z is late because of a distribution data problem by NOAA/NCEP.

Well, it's never too early to invoke a shortage of balloon data?:santa-emoji:

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58 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well, it's never too early to invoke a shortage of balloon data?:santa-emoji:

I think the run is that good GC it's blown a fuse. 60s winter incoming, I tell thee 👀👀👀👀

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15 minutes ago, Paul said:

I suspect/hope the 12z will start on time and the 6z has been dropped. We'll find out in 10 minutes or so though. 

Who remembers the Chinese model that used to roll out so slowly the actual weather arrived first? It was still wrong.

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Cold shot appearing on the 12z GFS. Some models are starting to show something colder appearing within the 8-10 day range.

gfs-0-186.thumb.png.6db346a3ee4272402dae8d04382ed288.png   gfs-1-186.thumb.png.b471cb63b0432ac535153117ed81864f.png

The ICON could potentially show something cold if it went out to T240, and looks to be following this mornings GEM. The 12z GEM is following on with its morning run, with -4c uppers reaching the south coast, and a chance of snow falling on the hills of N England and Scotland. We still have a few models that disagree on this, so more runs needed.

Edited by Zak M
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1 minute ago, Zak M said:

Some models are starting to show something colder appearing within the 8-10 day range.

This should be pinned to the top of this thread for the whole Winter season - save us all repeating it week in/week out. 😄

Latest UKMO brings us more mild/mundane weather - temperatures dropping to more normal values later next week. 

UKMO 96,120 and 144:
 

C5E1226F-9866-48C8-8EA8-EA2537FB9646.thumb.jpeg.4d31e5c2b4dc13840608521c94f6e5bb.jpeg55C87814-A783-4DB8-89D5-C450CEC725E9.thumb.jpeg.1c1be14918b216c59275f6cccf7ac011.jpeg6184336C-79E7-41AA-B384-E9051332E48C.thumb.jpeg.b874ba8846489559cd0488125a5de7ae.jpeg49DD87BB-B793-4612-BB59-F4FF4051E4C0.thumb.jpeg.dfd63b8e73f9c0364066b2f8accfc661.jpeg7A38FF36-4FEC-4F0C-8462-2F9FD3BB1951.thumb.jpeg.f17164aa791cc124ee1f29e151e76869.jpegF926819C-7124-4952-981D-7C1FB104E744.thumb.jpeg.ffa7258e309cb07ee66756d270e8d861.jpeg

Iceland looks as though it’s heading into the freezer...why can’t we have a member on here who lives there!? Instead we are stuck with our friend @jules216 from snowless Slovakia! 😁 (Just joking of course mate!)

UK and Ireland wise - isn’t it great to be looking ahead to the official start of Meteorological Winter with at least a risk of cold/wintry weather arriving? :santa-emoji:

Have a good night everyone! 

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Yesterday I asked if there was any point looking past t144? Well went it’s showing this, yes talk loads and look at it on macro scale.🤣🤣🤣 nice to see no plausible than yesterday tho.

6D363D9A-CC16-4329-96CE-E4D3F67EF718.png

Edited by That ECM
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