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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
    2 minutes ago, LRD said:

    Agree and it could be that the GFS is picking up a signal but perhaps the timing is wrong and it's bringing things forward in time a bit too early. 

    So maybe the GFS is being a bit premature. As it were. Happens to the best of us

    image.png.5e946e3ce632f12b1fc86293671cc87a.png

    Lol 😅 That timing is certainly as possibility too. Can’t be ignored.

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    Hi all . I’m back from my summer hibernation . A warm welcome to all the new members . It’s hard to believe we’re back again chasing those hard to come by good winter charts . It’s true the older

    This is the ECM at 96 hrs v's the reanalysis for the 3rd of Nov 2010 and bears similarities in our part of the world now you wouldn't think that the epic winter of 2010 would come from that

    Time to start wheeling out the ECM snow depth charts then 😍. Please remember it is mandatory to reply with how unreliable they are and how it accumulates all falling snow even if it doesn’t settle bla

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Models continuing the theme of the weekend, lots of chopping and changing, means reliable timeframe is short, 120 hrs tops.. a case in point being the northerly flow projected for later this week as shown by all models about 168 hr timeframe, has now turned into a damp squib.

    I'm wondering why La Nina imprint is not being shown in any of the models, mid atlantic high instead of mid atlantic trough.. 

    Maybe a northerly will come later as the high retrogresses west into the Atlantic from Scandi due to the lag effect of La nina?

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    ECM looks very circumspect, undercooking heights over Scandi I feel on this run, how can you have strong low heights either side, and end up with no strong ridge inbetween.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    9 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    ECM looks very circumspect, undercooking heights over Scandi I feel on this run, how can you have strong low heights either side, and end up with no strong ridge inbetween.

    I'm being good and following house rules, but as per my latest post in the twitter thread, the so called pros (I joke surely 😜) are having none of it as far as the ECM ensembles are concerned. 

    Dragons and disappointment this way... 

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    Well, it's all been said, it would seem. The GFS 12Z OP and Control are certainly heading in a very different direction and if GEM went beyond T+240 it could be very interesting.

    ECM at this stage doesn't want to know and the build of heights into Scandinavia at T+192 just isn't sustained as the Russian HP is too far to the north and east.

    This looks to be the critical point - T+216 tonight - so really still very much FI and reliant it seems on the continuing disconnect between the stratospheric and tropospheric  vortices. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    The question I'm left with is quite simple: Do I bin the GFS, the ECM... or all of 'em?:drunk-emoji:

    PS: Why would anyone pay £40 per month, for a service that's no better than old-fashioned Dialup!😬

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    It would seem Glosea is seeing PM incursions going by Exeters update...

    I'm hopeful a developing-AO will assist the jet digging SE into Europe.

    Failing that, its a pretty grim alternative...

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The ECM is very underwhelming .

    The writing was on the wall by day 7 and thereafter it just drags out the boredom.

    The key is how far north you get the ridge before it starts to topple ne wards.

    Its a role reversal with the normally more progressive GFS being more amplified and the ECM barreling far too much energy eastwards .

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Midlothian
  • Location: Midlothian
    53 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Looking at the gefs stamps at day ten and there isn't that many that take the ECM route as in blowing the block away to the east

    gens_panel_wwe8.thumb.png.69a52a90f8b30ef112b8cc6e89d4b0bc.png382051251_ECH1-240(1).thumb.gif.ed3283ed6299f5a3e505717aa016ac4c.gif

    so is the ECM having a wobble or will it be nearer the mark?

    meanwhile...

    i caught Zak viewing the models earlier😛

     

     

    a wobble, a wobble??? Dear me, if verification came with burgers, ECM would be obese! 
    For me it’s on the right track, listen, low heights traversing over the atmosphere make it unlikely for there to be any easterly flow across the UK.

    Having said that, there’s a chance that the lower gradients sink south not far from east, thus squeezing and blowing up the pressure, however, it’s likely to be drier rather than humid.
     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    3 minutes ago, dragan said:

    a wobble, a wobble??? Dear me, if verification came with burgers, ECM would be obese! 
    For me it’s on the right track, listen, low heights traversing over the atmosphere make it unlikely for there to be any easterly flow across the UK.

    Having said that, there’s a chance that the lower gradients sink south not far from east, thus squeezing and blowing up the pressure, however, it’s likely to be drier rather than humid.
     

    In other words... 'Big' Joe B isn't the US's President Elect...? Well, not that one anywho!:santa-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    USA forecasters have only given small weighting to the ECM ensembles and ops for their extended forecasts after Saturday which is a good thing because we don’t want it to verify ! They’ve gone for a higher input of NAEFS and other guidance . 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    USA forecasters have only given small weighting to the ECM ensembles and ops for their extended forecasts after Saturday which is a good thing because we don’t want it to verify ! They’ve gone for a higher input of NAEFS and other guidance . 

    Over to the 18z!!!!surely at some point luck has gota go our way!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Imagine the options going forward it this was to verify!!!!

    image.thumb.png.bff6c76e13abef705c4a1504795a09ef.png

    ... and as for that cold pool!!!!!

    image.thumb.png.972a5ba0484575fae712efa350bb25c8.png

    Best enjoy it while we can, it will probably be gone in about 90 minutes!!!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    If my memory serves me correctly, the GFS nailed the Christmas easterly of 2005 whilst ECM was having none of it until it backtracked at short notice. This was an uncannily similar evolution to what the GFS is gunning for now. 

    Screenshot_20201116-212344.png

    Screenshot_20201116-212407.png

    Screenshot_20201116-212426.png

    Edited by blizzard81
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    7 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

    Imagine the options going forward it this was to verify!!!!

    image.thumb.png.bff6c76e13abef705c4a1504795a09ef.png

    ... and as for that cold pool!!!!!

    image.thumb.png.972a5ba0484575fae712efa350bb25c8.png

    Best enjoy it while we can, it will probably be gone in about 90 minutes!!!

     

    Aye, the annual netweather pantomime season is well-and-truly underway: It's going to snow! Oh no it isn't! Oh yes it is! It's behind you!:santa-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    More poor news for coldies from the latest ec46 run .... euro (mainly)  and sceuro highs with Atlantic trough pos NAO pattern 

    Lets hope the latest run is as inaccurate as the previous few weeks and it's constant touting of raised heights to our north west for the second half of November. Absolutely no sign of raised heights to our north west. I think the ec46 is struggling..... And not for the first time. 

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    24 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    More poor news for coldies from the latest ec46 run .... euro (mainly)  and sceuro highs with Atlantic trough pos NAO pattern 

    Let’s hope it’s as accurate as all those times it’s advertised Greenland blocks over the years 👍🏻

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    15 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    Lets hope the latest run is as inaccurate as the previous few weeks and it's constant touting of raised heights to our north west for the second half of November. Absolutely no sign of raised heights to our north west. I think the ec46 is struggling..... And not for the first time. 

    Yeh but as always it will probably get the milder outlook correct lol!!typical😒

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Yeh but as always it will probably get the milder outlook correct lol!!typical😒

    You must have read my mind as I was posting that lol 😂 We certainly know that it never seems to work both ways huh? The law of sod in all it's horrid glory! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    Meanwhile the 18z seems even more bullish about the amplification in our neck of the woods. I'm hoping for a repeat of the very rare victory GFS had over ECM during Xmas 2005 that I mentioned earlier. 

    Screenshot_20201116-221258.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    Meanwhile the 18z seems even more bullish about the amplification in our neck of the woods. I'm hoping for a repeat of the very rare victory GFS had over ECM during Xmas 2005 that I mentioned earlier. 

    Screenshot_20201116-221258.png

    Locked on then! 😂 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    1 minute ago, Griff said:

    Locked on then! 😂 👍

    I wish lol. On the other hand...... Never say never 😂

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