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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Sorry I’m late to the party folks I’ve been running naked through the streets letting of fireworks only joking..I didn’t have any fireworks!

What a difference 24hrs makes. It was all Prozac and winters over posts yesterday. Best thing is that 12z GFS run wasn’t an outlier and has loads of support! GEM is also looking good..come on ECM don’t be a party pooper!

41F14DA2-C8FC-413C-93E2-0F5336305371.jpeg

Language, Timothy!...That's my game of Spot The Loony done for, then?

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Two cracks at the whip 12z ec.. AT ridge.. / development Scandinavia... taking the absorb right out of northwest energy sectors

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

BC82BC29-3CB3-4A04-A7EB-AA56258F0D8B.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

ECH1-216.thumb.gif.aabe26c21e8c7f4d96f5328b300be6a0.gif...

...and we await day ten again

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Not this time,it was suspect when the trough out west wasn't disrupting SE like the 00z.

ECH1-240.thumb.gif.3b843c4c06d1d91431a826eb47232212.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

No cigar
image.thumb.png.ffc61915f74aa316ad14f298bb094328.png
 

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
11 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Language, Timothy!...

sorry, c 1981 ...

Edited by mushymanrob
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Not this time,it was suspect when the trough out west wasn't disrupting SE like the 00z.

ECH1-240.thumb.gif.3b843c4c06d1d91431a826eb47232212.gif

 

Usual shifting East to the benefit of Greece.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
27 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The euro T-plots on the early winter ❄️ swingometer also.. the 500 n-hem plots will make eye watering viewing tonight..@full circle...    the madness has begun

111980BF-49AE-46F0-A8F3-EADB540991E4.png

Readjust the isobars ! alignment henceforth via shooting WAA polar plunge be coming full circle ! 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM is the classic uk run tonight - looks promising, then the Atlantic steams through and ruins it

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Euro view of the ECM at 240 - pfft:

image.thumb.png.ea54d548f067bea5f9736a6f1aec7d68.png

Northern Hemisphere view of the ECM at 240 - much better. Siberian High punching in to the Arctic

image.thumb.png.630a79f33b3b50e844161696afbf20cd.png

It'll change again of course but things are looking ok at this point in time. Better than it's looked since late Feb 2018

I'm off to tell everyone I know that we're heading for a freezing December with ice, snow and other cold things*

image.thumb.png.0ceab2a374134f2a369f109c2562e13d.png

 

*not really

 

Edited by LRD
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM is the classic uk run tonight - looks promising, then the Atlantic steams through and ruins it

Indeed although last season anything +144 hrs the ec had major altercations with itself via energy distruption/overloading energy transfer = barrelling the modelling!.. but adjusted in time catch up...   itsupdated systems seem to have gone from amplification over cooking... to energy miss diagnosis... @mentioned time params..

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
38 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

No cigar
image.thumb.png.ffc61915f74aa316ad14f298bb094328.png
 

Maybe we will give it one next time...

ECM1-240.thumb.gif.876c004b21e2cec1d69fab12f0284d85.gif

i wouldn't worry about a day ten charts that won't verify anyway

so let's see where it sits in the ens soon.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

I,d be inclined to see where the ECM run sits with it ensemble groupings before making any rash comments. Especially as the models are acting against type here in that you would expect the GFS to be over progressive with the Atlantic and the ECM to be producing Dec 31st 1978 charts. Not the other way round.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

I think, to be fair, that although the ECMWF run is poo poo for cold and wintry weather for the UK, Griff made a great point that it’s wise not to get hung up on every operational run. The fact also that some of these models, such as the GFS, are producing these Scandinavian/Northern UK High blocking outcomes in a time frame that can be highly variable. So it’s not too alarming to see models such as the ECMWF produce something like that. Sometimes is best to look at the overall picture, including the anomaly and mean charts, to get some sort of idea where we may head in 10+ days time - even though anomaly charts can be prone to being off the mark on some occasions. Still useful for some kind of guide, though. 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Models continuing the theme of the weekend, lots of chopping and changing, means reliable timeframe is short, 120 hrs tops.. a case in point being the northerly flow projected for later this week as shown by all models about 168 hr timeframe, has now turned into a damp squib.

I'm wondering why La Nina imprint is not being shown in any of the models, mid atlantic high instead of mid atlantic trough.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
11 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

I think, to be fair, that although the ECMWF run is poo poo for cold and wintry weather for the UK, Griff made a great point that it’s wise not to get hung up on every operational run. The fact also that some of these models, such as the GFS, are producing these Scandinavian/Northern UK High blocking outcomes in a time frame that can be highly variable. So it’s not too alarming to see models such as the ECMWF produce something like that. Sometimes is best to look at the overall picture, including the anomaly and mean charts, to get some sort of idea where we may head in 10+ days time - even though anomaly charts can be prone to being off the mark on some occasions. Still useful for some kind of guide, though. 

Agree and it could be that the GFS is picking up the correct signal but perhaps the timing is wrong and it's bringing things forward in time a bit too early. 

So maybe the GFS is being a bit premature. As it were. Happens to the best of us

image.png.5e946e3ce632f12b1fc86293671cc87a.png

Edited by LRD
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Looking at the gefs stamps at day ten and there isn't that many that take the ECM route as in blowing the block away to the east

gens_panel_wwe8.thumb.png.69a52a90f8b30ef112b8cc6e89d4b0bc.png382051251_ECH1-240(1).thumb.gif.ed3283ed6299f5a3e505717aa016ac4c.gif

so is the ECM having a wobble or will it be nearer the mark?

meanwhile...

i caught Zak viewing the models earlier

 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
2 minutes ago, LRD said:

Agree and it could be that the GFS is picking up a signal but perhaps the timing is wrong and it's bringing things forward in time a bit too early. 

So maybe the GFS is being a bit premature. As it were. Happens to the best of us

image.png.5e946e3ce632f12b1fc86293671cc87a.png

Lol That timing is certainly as possibility too. Can’t be ignored.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Models continuing the theme of the weekend, lots of chopping and changing, means reliable timeframe is short, 120 hrs tops.. a case in point being the northerly flow projected for later this week as shown by all models about 168 hr timeframe, has now turned into a damp squib.

I'm wondering why La Nina imprint is not being shown in any of the models, mid atlantic high instead of mid atlantic trough.. 

Maybe a northerly will come later as the high retrogresses west into the Atlantic from Scandi due to the lag effect of La nina?

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