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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Here we go then,the ecm at 168.

    ECH1-168.thumb.gif.518d8a57bca78681d45bdaeede9bd6d9.gifD1061_236_387_1200.thumb.jpg.d0ea84b71ef9477300a90eac719197b3.jpg

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    Hi all . I’m back from my summer hibernation . A warm welcome to all the new members . It’s hard to believe we’re back again chasing those hard to come by good winter charts . It’s true the older

    This is the ECM at 96 hrs v's the reanalysis for the 3rd of Nov 2010 and bears similarities in our part of the world now you wouldn't think that the epic winter of 2010 would come from that

    Time to start wheeling out the ECM snow depth charts then 😍. Please remember it is mandatory to reply with how unreliable they are and how it accumulates all falling snow even if it doesn’t settle bla

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Sorry I’m late to the party folks I’ve been running naked through the streets letting of fireworks 😍 only joking..I didn’t have any fireworks!

    What a difference 24hrs makes. It was all Prozac and winters over posts yesterday. Best thing is that 12z GFS run wasn’t an outlier and has loads of support! GEM is also looking good..come on ECM don’t be a party pooper!

    41F14DA2-C8FC-413C-93E2-0F5336305371.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

    spacer.pngGFS 12 z

    Wow , look where the Jet is heading on the GFS 12 z . Fun and games for coldies if that were to happen

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Sorry I’m late to the party folks I’ve been running naked through the streets letting of fireworks 😍 only joking..I didn’t have any fireworks!

    What a difference 24hrs makes. It was all Prozac and winters over posts yesterday. Best thing is that 12z GFS run wasn’t an outlier and has loads of support! GEM is also looking good..come on ECM don’t be a party pooper!

    41F14DA2-C8FC-413C-93E2-0F5336305371.jpeg

    Language, Timothy!...That's my game of Spot The Loony done for, then?😱

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Two cracks at the whip 12z ec.. AT ridge.. / development Scandinavia... taking the absorb right out of northwest energy sectors 👌

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    BC82BC29-3CB3-4A04-A7EB-AA56258F0D8B.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    ECH1-216.thumb.gif.aabe26c21e8c7f4d96f5328b300be6a0.gif...

    ...and we await day ten again😜

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Not this time,it was suspect when the trough out west wasn't disrupting SE like the 00z.

    ECH1-240.thumb.gif.3b843c4c06d1d91431a826eb47232212.gif

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    No cigar
    image.thumb.png.ffc61915f74aa316ad14f298bb094328.png
     

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    11 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Language, Timothy!...😱

    sorry, c 1981 ...

    Edited by mushymanrob
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Not this time,it was suspect when the trough out west wasn't disrupting SE like the 00z.

    ECH1-240.thumb.gif.3b843c4c06d1d91431a826eb47232212.gif

     

    Usual shifting East to the benefit of Greece.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    27 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    The euro T-plots on the early winter ❄️ swingometer also.. the 500 n-hem plots will make eye watering viewing [email protected] circle...    the madness has begun 👌👌👌👌🤪🤪🤪

    111980BF-49AE-46F0-A8F3-EADB540991E4.png

    Readjust the isobars ! alignment henceforth via shooting WAA polar plunge be coming full circle ! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    ECM is the classic uk run tonight - looks promising, then the Atlantic steams through and ruins it 😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, wild or foggy/frosty autumns and cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Euro view of the ECM at 240 - pfft:

    image.thumb.png.ea54d548f067bea5f9736a6f1aec7d68.png

    Northern Hemisphere view of the ECM at 240 - much better. Siberian High punching in to the Arctic

    image.thumb.png.630a79f33b3b50e844161696afbf20cd.png

    It'll change again of course but things are looking ok at this point in time. Better than it's looked since late Feb 2018

    I'm off to tell everyone I know that we're heading for a freezing December with ice, snow and other cold things*

    image.thumb.png.0ceab2a374134f2a369f109c2562e13d.png

     

    *not really

     

    Edited by LRD
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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    ECM is the classic uk run tonight - looks promising, then the Atlantic steams through and ruins it 😂

    Indeed although last season anything +144 hrs the ec had major altercations with itself via energy distruption/overloading energy transfer = barrelling the modelling!.. but adjusted in time catch up...   itsupdated systems seem to have gone from amplification over cooking... to energy miss diagnosis... @mentioned time params..

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    38 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

    No cigar
    image.thumb.png.ffc61915f74aa316ad14f298bb094328.png
     

    Maybe we will give it one next time...😛

    ECM1-240.thumb.gif.876c004b21e2cec1d69fab12f0284d85.gif

    i wouldn't worry about a day ten charts that won't verify anyway

    so let's see where it sits in the ens soon.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    I'm happy with EC...

    We see a -AO and eventually the jet is going into Europe...

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    I,d be inclined to see where the ECM run sits with it ensemble groupings before making any rash comments. Especially as the models are acting against type here in that you would expect the GFS to be over progressive with the Atlantic and the ECM to be producing Dec 31st 1978 charts. Not the other way round.

    Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    The eps mean at day 10 is a bit disappointing - more progressive than this morning’s set.

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    I think, to be fair, that although the ECMWF run is poo poo for cold and wintry weather for the UK, Griff made a great point that it’s wise not to get hung up on every operational run. The fact also that some of these models, such as the GFS, are producing these Scandinavian/Northern UK High blocking outcomes in a time frame that can be highly variable. So it’s not too alarming to see models such as the ECMWF produce something like that. Sometimes is best to look at the overall picture, including the anomaly and mean charts, to get some sort of idea where we may head in 10+ days time - even though anomaly charts can be prone to being off the mark on some occasions. Still useful for some kind of guide, though. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Models continuing the theme of the weekend, lots of chopping and changing, means reliable timeframe is short, 120 hrs tops.. a case in point being the northerly flow projected for later this week as shown by all models about 168 hr timeframe, has now turned into a damp squib.

    I'm wondering why La Nina imprint is not being shown in any of the models, mid atlantic high instead of mid atlantic trough.. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, wild or foggy/frosty autumns and cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    11 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

    I think, to be fair, that although the ECMWF run is poo poo for cold and wintry weather for the UK, Griff made a great point that it’s wise not to get hung up on every operational run. The fact also that some of these models, such as the GFS, are producing these Scandinavian/Northern UK High blocking outcomes in a time frame that can be highly variable. So it’s not too alarming to see models such as the ECMWF produce something like that. Sometimes is best to look at the overall picture, including the anomaly and mean charts, to get some sort of idea where we may head in 10+ days time - even though anomaly charts can be prone to being off the mark on some occasions. Still useful for some kind of guide, though. 

    Agree and it could be that the GFS is picking up the correct signal but perhaps the timing is wrong and it's bringing things forward in time a bit too early. 

    So maybe the GFS is being a bit premature. As it were. Happens to the best of us

    image.png.5e946e3ce632f12b1fc86293671cc87a.png

    Edited by LRD
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Looking at the gefs stamps at day ten and there isn't that many that take the ECM route as in blowing the block away to the east

    gens_panel_wwe8.thumb.png.69a52a90f8b30ef112b8cc6e89d4b0bc.png382051251_ECH1-240(1).thumb.gif.ed3283ed6299f5a3e505717aa016ac4c.gif

    so is the ECM having a wobble or will it be nearer the mark?

    meanwhile...

    i caught Zak viewing the models earlier😛

     

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