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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


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Hi all . I’m back from my summer hibernation . A warm welcome to all the new members . It’s hard to believe we’re back again chasing those hard to come by good winter charts . It’s true the older

This is the ECM at 96 hrs v's the reanalysis for the 3rd of Nov 2010 and bears similarities in our part of the world now you wouldn't think that the epic winter of 2010 would come from that

Time to start wheeling out the ECM snow depth charts then 😍. Please remember it is mandatory to reply with how unreliable they are and how it accumulates all falling snow even if it doesn’t settle bla

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl

    Nice GEM as well!🙂

    image.thumb.png.e4bcdb39c6de753b7d20dff28f3f9d61.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    7 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    I'm waiting to see what T384 will look like. Could potentially be a stonking chart for snow.

    And here's T384... look at that cold pool to our north. 🏂

    902009548_gfs-0-384(1).thumb.png.cc44cd60333477e2f935c3a4f578458b.png   gfs-1-384.thumb.png.a0a862ce4ecc412444694066dc322276.png

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    I have to admit I've been totally sceptical of anything cold before the new year. Il wager my nans wooden leg that gfs 12z won't varify ie greenland blocking ete. On the other hand given the nao trending negative, the 6z and ecm I concede there is a "chance" of something cool-cold from the ene in the coming weeks. Not a bad admission from a gereatic sceptic 👌👌👌👌

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, wild or foggy/frosty autumns and cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    That GFS 12z run basically mirrors the latest Met Office forecast for the next 10 - 12 days

    Mild, then settled and possibly foggy, temps falling to average or just below 

    Edited by LRD
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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

    For the better or the worse?

    I've had time to think and it definitely looks OK in FI....

    😂

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Its absolutely bonkers to finish. That reservoir of cold to the NE really is something.

    It is crewe and I think your comments recently may be close to the mark, hopefully 👍👍👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The control is gunning for the same synoptic as the gfs op,and also look at that day ten mean

    gensnh-0-1-240.thumb.png.4d6f516f08a99cf70b131acbb827ccb2.pnggensnh-0-0-240.thumb.png.fbfed4c426b992b461f8e236dc88468e.pnggensnh-31-1-240.thumb.png.f208f7a9c80b4cfb24d281d30655c33c.png

    day ten stamps,plenty going off to our NE.

    gens_panel_gig4.thumb.png.3c8c78c879b156c4e0cb970444f0e137.png

    p.S why does my OH want me to cook tea just as the 12z roll out😳

     

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Anyone else pondering the ec imploding and all other models following 🐭🐭🐭

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The control run is perfect from day ten with -ve heights to the south and +ve heights to the north,true easterly incoming.

    gensnh-0-1-264.thumb.png.2e7d98fb84e9222c297313b709c76132.pnggensnh-0-0-264.thumb.png.939db40ca391e28ef251f0eea62a1cc2.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Sorry for my above post, I couldn't help myself. I need to teach myself better next time. 🤭

    10 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    The control run is perfect from day ten with -ve heights to the south and +ve heights to the north,true easterly incoming.

    gensnh-0-1-264.thumb.png.2e7d98fb84e9222c297313b709c76132.pnggensnh-0-0-264.thumb.png.939db40ca391e28ef251f0eea62a1cc2.png

     

    Yes, it looks similar to its op run too, but instead the cold uppers from the continent actually reach us:

    gens-0-0-300.thumb.png.9571e914b5d8673050ae2913d32030b1.png

    Judging by the last two frames of the control run, that HP cell to our north seems to stall there, so the uppers from the continent might keep on coming..

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    GEFS control is synoptically stunning, just like the op. Pressure retrogressing towards Greenland, same as the op.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    GEFS control is synoptically stunning, just like the op. Pressure retrogressing towards Greenland, same as the op.

    Yeah,reload from the north incoming i reckon.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, Nick F said:

    I actually think there's a greater chance of cold/wintry weather this side of the New Year. Current canonical La Nina with colder waters in the eastern Pacific compared to the west, that looks to persist into Dec, tends to favour high latitude blocking / -NAO in late Nov/December if the trop PV is still weak. Think 2010, with similar East Pacific La Nina, but nowhere near as extreme. January/February 2021 probably milder, as the La Nina colder waters transfer further west into Modoki/central Pacific, forcing patterns to readjust and a strenghtening TPV to take hold forcing a +NAO.

    I actually think there's a reasonable chance the SPV could destroy itself sometime in Jan.

    Could be some fun and games come Feb if we get lucky.

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  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Pert 10😲

    gensnh-10-1-312.thumb.png.d8cd09700e71d85601609e2ed966e69c.pnggensnh-10-0-312.thumb.png.c0fde31e7df79397ba857cffb3232434.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Rotherham

    Does anyone have any idea how the Beijing Climate Centre model performs? It's showing strong northern blocking through December and January. I note it doesn't get mentioned much in here. Is that because it's not accessible.....or because it's cr*p? 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    2 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

    Ladies and gentlemen I give you 

     

     

    C68B7EA3-68F2-49F3-AF83-4984303FE891.png

    99A73273-6B17-4654-A096-2E89065C1B61.jpeg

    Jesus! that reminds me of legendary chart I see on here every year

    archives-1978-12-31-0-0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    Jesus! that reminds me of legendary chart I see on here every year

    archives-1978-12-31-0-0.png

    Well if the results on the ground down here are the same as then. I'll be over the moon.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Looks promising...!!!

    graphe3_1000_264_29___.thumb.png.8a7b99dfc53301896639d1bc76f5432d.png

    loads of colder opportunities towards the end of the gefs ens.

    Edit: hold on tight...

    tight isobars posting😏

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    The euro T-plots on the early winter ❄️ swingometer also.. the 500 n-hem plots will make eye watering viewing [email protected] circle...    the madness has begun 👌👌👌👌🤪🤪🤪

    111980BF-49AE-46F0-A8F3-EADB540991E4.png

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