Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - Winter approaches


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
7 minutes ago, Zak M said:

I'm waiting to see what T384 will look like. Could potentially be a stonking chart for snow.

And here's T384... look at that cold pool to our north.

902009548_gfs-0-384(1).thumb.png.cc44cd60333477e2f935c3a4f578458b.png   gfs-1-384.thumb.png.a0a862ce4ecc412444694066dc322276.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

I have to admit I've been totally sceptical of anything cold before the new year. Il wager my nans wooden leg that gfs 12z won't varify ie greenland blocking ete. On the other hand given the nao trending negative, the 6z and ecm I concede there is a "chance" of something cool-cold from the ene in the coming weeks. Not a bad admission from a gereatic sceptic

Edited by swfc
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

That GFS 12z run basically mirrors the latest Met Office forecast for the next 10 - 12 days

Mild, then settled and possibly foggy, temps falling to average or just below 

Edited by LRD
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Its absolutely bonkers to finish. That reservoir of cold to the NE really is something.

It is crewe and I think your comments recently may be close to the mark, hopefully

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The control is gunning for the same synoptic as the gfs op,and also look at that day ten mean

gensnh-0-1-240.thumb.png.4d6f516f08a99cf70b131acbb827ccb2.pnggensnh-0-0-240.thumb.png.fbfed4c426b992b461f8e236dc88468e.pnggensnh-31-1-240.thumb.png.f208f7a9c80b4cfb24d281d30655c33c.png

day ten stamps,plenty going off to our NE.

gens_panel_gig4.thumb.png.3c8c78c879b156c4e0cb970444f0e137.png

p.S why does my OH want me to cook tea just as the 12z roll out

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The control run is perfect from day ten with -ve heights to the south and +ve heights to the north,true easterly incoming.

gensnh-0-1-264.thumb.png.2e7d98fb84e9222c297313b709c76132.pnggensnh-0-0-264.thumb.png.939db40ca391e28ef251f0eea62a1cc2.png

 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Sorry for my above post, I couldn't help myself. I need to teach myself better next time.

10 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The control run is perfect from day ten with -ve heights to the south and +ve heights to the north,true easterly incoming.

gensnh-0-1-264.thumb.png.2e7d98fb84e9222c297313b709c76132.pnggensnh-0-0-264.thumb.png.939db40ca391e28ef251f0eea62a1cc2.png

 

Yes, it looks similar to its op run too, but instead the cold uppers from the continent actually reach us:

gens-0-0-300.thumb.png.9571e914b5d8673050ae2913d32030b1.png

Judging by the last two frames of the control run, that HP cell to our north seems to stall there, so the uppers from the continent might keep on coming..

Edited by Zak M
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

GEFS control is synoptically stunning, just like the op. Pressure retrogressing towards Greenland, same as the op.

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GEFS control is synoptically stunning, just like the op. Pressure retrogressing towards Greenland, same as the op.

Yeah,reload from the north incoming i reckon.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, Nick F said:

I actually think there's a greater chance of cold/wintry weather this side of the New Year. Current canonical La Nina with colder waters in the eastern Pacific compared to the west, that looks to persist into Dec, tends to favour high latitude blocking / -NAO in late Nov/December if the trop PV is still weak. Think 2010, with similar East Pacific La Nina, but nowhere near as extreme. January/February 2021 probably milder, as the La Nina colder waters transfer further west into Modoki/central Pacific, forcing patterns to readjust and a strenghtening TPV to take hold forcing a +NAO.

I actually think there's a reasonable chance the SPV could destroy itself sometime in Jan.

Could be some fun and games come Feb if we get lucky.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Pert 10

gensnh-10-1-312.thumb.png.d8cd09700e71d85601609e2ed966e69c.pnggensnh-10-0-312.thumb.png.c0fde31e7df79397ba857cffb3232434.png

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham

Does anyone have any idea how the Beijing Climate Centre model performs? It's showing strong northern blocking through December and January. I note it doesn't get mentioned much in here. Is that because it's not accessible.....or because it's cr*p?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Ladies and gentlemen I give you 

 

 

C68B7EA3-68F2-49F3-AF83-4984303FE891.png

99A73273-6B17-4654-A096-2E89065C1B61.jpeg

Jesus! that reminds me of legendary chart I see on here every year

archives-1978-12-31-0-0.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Jesus! that reminds me of legendary chart I see on here every year

archives-1978-12-31-0-0.png

Well if the results on the ground down here are the same as then. I'll be over the moon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Looks promising...!!!

graphe3_1000_264_29___.thumb.png.8a7b99dfc53301896639d1bc76f5432d.png

loads of colder opportunities towards the end of the gefs ens.

Edit: hold on tight...

tight isobars posting

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

The euro T-plots on the early winter ❄️ swingometer also.. the 500 n-hem plots will make eye watering viewing tonight..@full circle...    the madness has begun

111980BF-49AE-46F0-A8F3-EADB540991E4.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Here we go then,the ecm at 168.

ECH1-168.thumb.gif.518d8a57bca78681d45bdaeede9bd6d9.gifD1061_236_387_1200.thumb.jpg.d0ea84b71ef9477300a90eac719197b3.jpg

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Sorry I’m late to the party folks I’ve been running naked through the streets letting of fireworks only joking..I didn’t have any fireworks!

What a difference 24hrs makes. It was all Prozac and winters over posts yesterday. Best thing is that 12z GFS run wasn’t an outlier and has loads of support! GEM is also looking good..come on ECM don’t be a party pooper!

41F14DA2-C8FC-413C-93E2-0F5336305371.jpeg

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...