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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    All academic but it's very rare you see that nhp in November. See you later Atlantic and hello from the nne 👌👌

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    Hi all . I’m back from my summer hibernation . A warm welcome to all the new members . It’s hard to believe we’re back again chasing those hard to come by good winter charts . It’s true the older

    This is the ECM at 96 hrs v's the reanalysis for the 3rd of Nov 2010 and bears similarities in our part of the world now you wouldn't think that the epic winter of 2010 would come from that

    Time to start wheeling out the ECM snow depth charts then 😍. Please remember it is mandatory to reply with how unreliable they are and how it accumulates all falling snow even if it doesn’t settle bla

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Vortex under all kinds of stress in FI of the GFS 12z.

    Could be a stonker to finish.

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    gfs keen on the high pressure to our east feeding in east to southeast winds from 

    192 hrs.Boasting a bit I did mention this scenario yesterday in my blog,but still long

    way to go will believe more when gfs and ecm show this positioning of the high at 72hrs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    look at that Greeny pressure rise, epic run albeit way out in FI. This setup would produce a pretty notable cold period if it materialised.
     

    image.thumb.png.8e153f2769d5ed7559b4fd3c88f88092.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    33 minutes ago, Griff said:

    who was saying that a potential scandi / greenland link up was better?

    Could happen... (Yes bored and avoiding my tax return)

    gfsnh-0-186.png

    well it took a while

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    For any new members or the younger end I'd book Mark this 12z gfs fi. You may not see it again for a while 👍👍👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, Griff said:

    well it took a while

    Think we're starting to see more than a few hints now that December could start cold and possibly wintry. How cold and wintry is up for debate.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Amazing consistency from gfs,better than the last run,would you believe.Very cold uppers invading now into the far North of Europe moving South

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

    Think we're starting to see more than a few hints now that December could start cold and possibly wintry. How cold and wintry is up for debate.

    Did you say I should ramp massively and tell everyone I know 😱

    Then it won't happen?

    But certainly pleasing charts jff!

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    Just now, SLEETY said:

    Amazing consistency from gfs,better than the last run,would you believe.Very cold uppers invading now into the far North of Europe moving South

    And only a 1060mb greenland high 👀👀👀

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, DavidS said:

    So different to the 06z, but possibly more interesting. 

    133EA06E-AE37-4ABF-B6CF-DF0E69B2D337.png

    Yes, but what's good is it's all just a variation of a theme of N blocking.

    Given EC seasonal showing heights in the N Atlantic for Dec, the crazily blocked CFS run I saw yesterday and now hints from the medium range NWP, all the evidence points towards a potential December cold spell.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Seriously cold uppers start to flow southwards on the 12z GFS. I'm waiting to see what T384 will look like. Could potentially be a stonking chart for snow.

    gfs-0-342.thumb.png.4439a7340b9c0da1ced83384901fd0ea.png   gfs-1-342.thumb.png.0b6e31bd12e817551b26eb341d9b4774.png

    The 12z GEM is also quite similar to the GFS:

    gem-0-240.thumb.png.b88aadf6419ccb555677444e73f0eb09.png   gem-1-240.thumb.png.7dee8355200e5125c180f1a00223e741.png

    What could possibly go wrong! 😉

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    BOOM SHAK A LAK!🕺

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Think that's the 6z GC🤔🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    The GFS 12z is phenomenal textbook retrogression it may not happen but to see charts like this in November is a big novelty. AO forecasts trending negative late November things appear to be more loaded.

    9800A717-A859-4B5C-9AB6-02CA20FE30B3.thumb.png.2f6f0feeb8873e6438b78ef8e2bab970.pngFD2F34A7-2D7E-40D5-B6D5-E43945F5A5BB.thumb.gif.1c73d2d0889f9ec26312242cd740439e.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Abergavenny
  • Location: Abergavenny
    3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Yes, but what's good is it's all just a variation of a theme of N blocking.

    Given EC seasonal showing heights in the N Atlantic for Dec, the crazily blocked CFS run I saw yesterday and now hints from the medium range NWP, all the evidence points towards a potential December cold spell.

    Yes I agree, heights to the north two runs in a row. Onwards to the pub run.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    BOOM SHAK A LAK!🕺

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    12Z is different though, beast off on this run, average temps I reckon, 6-7 max?

    gfs-0-342.png?12

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Thats incredible cold over Europe, imagine if we could tap into that !! Note how warm Most of Canada and America are, it’s nice to see them not forecast to be in the freezer for a change!! 

     

    image.thumb.png.1b689fc64e105a1468f34803ba2fd111.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Its absolutely bonkers to finish. That reservoir of cold to the NE really is something.

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    Posted
  • Location: Midlothian
  • Location: Midlothian
    4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    12Z is different though, beast off on this run, average temps I reckon, 6-7 max?

    gfs-0-342.png?12

    yes, not that cold 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    5 minutes ago, swfc said:

    Think that's the 6z GC🤔🤔

    I thought it looked mighty similar!:drunk-emoji:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Still enough for Nathan Rao to wet himself... I mean, there's gotta be a Wall of Snow in there somewhere!😬

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    Great synoptics from day 10, but nice signs of a pattern change well before this...still, it must be a first for Net Weather to get such exitement from a run where the -5 850 is absent from the uk all the way to T384 🤐

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