Model output discussion - Winter approaches

[Tim Bland]

B.E.A utifill !!! It’s in the bag people...what could possibly go wrong

 

[West is Best]

33 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Ahh but the interest starts way before then at t192....

Block in place and trough disruption.  That’s a touch of eye candy too

 

BFTP

Afternoon Fred. I'm coming out of my summer hibernation 

I hope everyone is well and has avoided this wretched virus?

Is TEITS around? He's going to love that 6z run.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

7 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Afternoon Fred. I'm coming out of my summer hibernation 

I hope everyone is well and has avoided this wretched virus?

Is TEITS around? He's going to love that 6z run.

Hi Richard

Glad to hear it and welcome back mate.  Yep 06z is a TEITS run alright.  I haven’t seen him post but hope comes on

 

BFTP

[Froze were the Days]

20 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Is TEITS around? He's going to love that 6z run.

He hasn't been around for yonks! (not that I've noticed any of his posts). Think he was getting fed up with teleconnections leading us up the garden path and believe a bit tired of chasing the rainbow - I might be wrong. 

[That ECM]

Control would work also

[Methuselah]

Today's GEFS 06Z ensembles... the trend is our friend? And, don't forget that yesterday's CFS had all the building blocks in the right places!

    

    

Nailded!

[Day 10]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

I do fear an early forum-wide outbreak of the DTs... That's the Day Tens by-the-way!

Now now! 

[chris55]

3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Avoid the flip-flops , lol...

But this doesnt make good viewing if its a route to cold you are seeking. The 8-14 dayer is similar.

Its looking like Autumn 2020 / November 2020 is going out rather benign and boringly  with a milder unsettled theme.

 

Not a complete lost cause IMO could pull in a cold continental feed in the southern half of U.K. at least. The higher heights just north of Iceland suggest perhaps not a full on Zonal flow with space for a looser blocked scenario just about keeping the Atlantic at bay. 

[nick sussex]

Before the mariachi band is booked for the celebrations and the ear muffs and hats are ordered it’s still well out into FI when the cold air arrives .

The biggest hurdle is to get the pattern to back sufficiently west so it would be good to see westwards corrections in the outputs to increase the margin for error.

Both the GFS and ECM do agree on the overall trend which isn’t always the case.

The evolution starts quite early as that mid Atlantic troughing starts digging south forcing the ridge to build north ahead of it by day 7.

You need the right building blocks there so tonight’s day 6 into 7 outputs will hopefully add a bit more amplification to calm the nerves !

[phil nw.]

The ECM modeling holds some hope in week 2 that  things may develop from the east ,certainly keener than the gefs at this stage.

 

 

We can see on the ECM lower ht anom. to our south .I think the evolution around days 7/8 is where we have a chance for something different.

The ridging towards Scandinavia as shown on the 06z GFS run has support in the ensembles so worth consideration. 

Edited November 16, 2020 by phil nw.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Well we got the ridge but were unlucky with too much energy going over the top and flattening it.

Positive to see the models attempting for a second try at the scandi high route this seems like the direction (hopefully) we are headed with it fitting in with phase 1 / 2 of the MJO in November, quite a few look very battleground type setup to me which can always have a chance of delivering some big snowfalls in the uk but we can worry about the finer details once we see how things develop.  there was one that looked a bit more iffy suppose there’s always the chance of the high being that bit too far east 

But again positive signs from my perspective and hopefully some lovely charts coming our way ️

[LRD]

22 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Before the mariachi band is booked for the celebrations and the ear muffs and hats are ordered it’s still well out into FI when the cold air arrives .

The biggest hurdle is to get the pattern to back sufficiently west so it would be good to see westwards corrections in the outputs to increase the margin for error.

Both the GFS and ECM do agree on the overall trend which isn’t always the case.

The evolution starts quite early as that mid Atlantic troughing starts digging south forcing the ridge to build north ahead of it by day 7.

You need the right building blocks there so tonight’s day 6 into 7 outputs will hopefully add a bit more amplification to calm the nerves !

If the Met Office are talking about cold and that is combined with models showing cold I'm more confident because that means the professionals think the bigger picture, broader atmopsheric state makes it more likely.

If cold is showing and the Met Office aren't backing it, I tend to ignore it. Saves a lot of disappointment. It's not a full-proof approach, granted, as the MO do get things wrong, of course, but that policy has saved me a lot of deflation

[wellington boot]

12 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Well we got the ridge but were unlucky with too much energy going over the top and flattening it.

Positive to see the models attempting for a second try at the scandi high route this seems like the direction (hopefully) we are headed with it fitting in with phase 1 / 2 of the MJO in November, quite a few look very battleground type setup to me which can always have a chance of delivering some big snowfalls in the uk but we can worry about the finer details once we see how things develop.  there was one that looked a bit more iffy suppose there’s always the chance of the high being that bit too far east 

But again positive signs from my perspective and hopefully some lovely charts coming our way ️

Interesting charts and as you say, perhaps some positive signs there. On the other hand, you can easily see how we worm our way excruciatingly out of a good cold spell even with blocking in place to the North and North East.  

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, LRD said:

If the Met Office are talking about cold and that is combined with models showing cold I'm more confident because that means the professionals think the bigger picture, broader atmopsheric state makes it more likely.

If cold is showing and the Met Office aren't backing it, I tend to ignore it. Saves a lot of disappointment. It's not a full-proof approach, granted, as the MO do get things wrong, of course, but that policy has saved me a lot of deflation

to me, Exeter's initial 'cold' musings seemed to sniff of a northerly flow - now it is more nuanced towards a sceuro or even s scandi high with the atlantic trough trying to make inroads from the nw.  

[LRD]

Apologies if this has already been posted but the Wetterzentrale ensembles show the op was a colder option but the overall trend in the 850hpa temps is going in the right direction

[Duane S.]

Well that (06z and ECM ops) got my attention! :-) The ens are not dismissive of it either.

This is my favourite route to cold. Rare as rocking horse poo but often brings the jackpot (longetivity and proper cold chances thereafter). Near vertical WAA going through the UK and merging with an Arctic high. We will always see a period of a couple of days of very mild southeries as it sets up. Then boom. A lockdown (of the good kind) should follow with systems undercutting the high to our SW.

Feet on the ground moment. LONG way to go. This remains somewhat unlikely and a more watered down version is of course more probable.

But I do feel we have come close to a decent cold spell on occasion in recent years during the end of Nov/start of Dec. Maybe this time? 2020 payback time!? The positive vaccine news (more great news today), Trump losing and an historic cold spell as enter December? In with a chance at least. We just need those dice to land in our favour for once!

[Chesil View]

Great post from S4L above. So yet again anither GFS run goes for negatively tilted trough and hp through UK to Greenland pulling the Russian high west.

[SLEETY]

How many runs before another Easterly dream dies,just expect the worst outcome and maybe we might hit the jackpot.

Probably more chance of winning the 115 million pound jackpot than the Easterly coming off.

[Methuselah]

Just now, SLEETY said:

How many runs before another Easterly dream dies,just expect the worst outcome and maybe we might hit the jackpot.

Probably more chance of winning the 115 million pound jackpot than the Easterly coming off.

Well, going by previous experience (and with the GFS 12Z due shortly) and with my normal tendency to think BIG, I'll lay bets on ONE!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Before the mariachi band is booked for the celebrations and the ear muffs and hats are ordered it’s still well out into FI when the cold air arrives .

The biggest hurdle is to get the pattern to back sufficiently west so it would be good to see westwards corrections in the outputs to increase the margin for error.

Both the GFS and ECM do agree on the overall trend which isn’t always the case.

The evolution starts quite early as that mid Atlantic troughing starts digging south forcing the ridge to build north ahead of it by day 7.

You need the right building blocks there so tonight’s day 6 into 7 outputs will hopefully add a bit more amplification to calm the nerves !

Its seldom the case at that range the last few winters anyway.

[MP-R]

57 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

We will always see a period of a couple of days of very mild southeries as it sets up. Then boom.

This is exactly how the colder pattern in December 2009 set up after the Atlantic departed. A few days of double figures then plummet!

[Allseasons-Si]

Just got in from work and by god "THAT ECM" at day ten AGAIN!!!

gfs op and control too are drooling charts in fl + some of the ens are bonkers but...

as a hardened coldy and a long time lurker/poster on here,these charts are pure fantasy and 90-95% of the time they will never materialise 

yes they are good to look at and i am as excited just as a lot of people are but lets just sit and wait and see what happens over the next few days

if the signal keeps on showing then i will take note...

and sits back on the fence.

[That ECM]

I love it on here. Everyone’s is like “don’t get sucked in, don’t get sucked in, don’t get sucked in”  “ hey seen this?” we always get sucked in

[Scandinavian High.]

4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I love it on here. Everyone’s is like “don’t get sucked in, don’t get sucked in, don’t get sucked in”  “ hey seen this?” we always get sucked in

Lovely charts I don’t think Steve murr as been sucked in yet he likes he’s Easterlys where is he..

[Rayth]

2 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Lovely charts I don’t think Steve murr as been sucked in yet he likes he’s Easterlys where is he..

The 1% battery life he has had on his phone the last two years has finally ran out