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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


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Hi all . I’m back from my summer hibernation . A warm welcome to all the new members . It’s hard to believe we’re back again chasing those hard to come by good winter charts . It’s true the older

This is the ECM at 96 hrs v's the reanalysis for the 3rd of Nov 2010 and bears similarities in our part of the world now you wouldn't think that the epic winter of 2010 would come from that

Time to start wheeling out the ECM snow depth charts then 😍. Please remember it is mandatory to reply with how unreliable they are and how it accumulates all falling snow even if it doesn’t settle bla

Posted Images

spacer.pngGEM 12 z @ 240 hrs

spacer.pngECM 12 z @ 240 hrs

Some fairly strong similarities between the GEM and ECM at day 10 with a chilly Northwesterly flow and the High Pressure in roughly the same location. ( Ties in rather well with the MetO longer range forecast )

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17 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Let’s not forget end of the GFS which holds a lot of promise....lots to be optimistic about for cold lovers this evening ..

6052B287-AA51-42D5-ACD5-64DA1A353AA6.png

Yes, lots of promise, with the core of the PV shifted away from Greenland. 
 
More like this please.

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20 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Let’s not forget end of the GFS which holds a lot of promise....lots to be optimistic about for cold lovers this evening ..

6052B287-AA51-42D5-ACD5-64DA1A353AA6.png

You reckon it will count down to anything resembling this? 🤔 

😜

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And cue the music guys with a nice tranquil violin....

there is nothing to suggest that there is any cold shot in the latest cpc anomaly charts:-

610day_03.thumb.gif.5c12e5f6d1d7c96431d1d6b55144adb8.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.855d553841299d12ddd00a10e86d0c4e.gif

upper flow from a westerly prob veering NW'ly in the ext'd with hp cell to our southwest,so looks like a cool high where it is positioned,favored spots in the NW and on mountains could see some wintry potential from a NW'ly though but it does look typical for Autumn-yes AUTUMN😏

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There is room for improvement this morning.At various days next week models are trying to lower the heights in Europe but frustratingly once the Sceuro high looses its grip here comes the Azores high to "rescue"the situation only if a low could dive in with a good angle not to collapse and fill around Black Sea but stay around Italy or so.Such a painful watch weather any meaningful snow can be achieved even on the high ground in Continent

Edited by jules216
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ECM best at day 10 for settled conditions this morning:

image.thumb.png.fe5224c40ea4df3cf8682efe6b6a4fb1.png

GEM coldest with the jet starting to dive south:

image.thumb.png.1a5fe5248f6579cde2b31f4f23f1788d.png

Going off last nights 18z ensembles, the number of more unsettled ensemble members is still growing. If you take this morning's ECM day 10 chart, it would only sit with about 4/30 of last nights 18z ensemble for the 22nd. I'd guess it's either an outlier or right at the top of this mornings pack:

image.thumb.png.b79106a16557199799f6171fd45a3ff5.png

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A slightly more positive outlook from me, day 6 doesn't look as bad as some suggest and the UKMO actually looks slightly better over Greenland than it did yesterday.

gfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.0f6bbc7c9e86762316180c903763d21d.pngUN144-21.thumb.GIF.dfe9565f60fb4debde749d7b525b219f.GIFECH1-144.thumb.png.5e23b3594da54023ea8a21d7b6faaf3d.png

Running through the GFS didn't scream organised bowling ball vortex either, but hey ho just my opinion, off to work.

Edited by Day 10
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image.thumb.png.9af457615eb6f7dd1916ab0ee97dc0c0.pngimage.thumb.png.8ed120c680b22baed6f624ad0db4d8ec.png

ECM this morning - oh dear! Add that to the 00z GFS ensembles:

image.thumb.png.f1946a1fe93556aa3c415d2fa5de7e57.png

I think we've probably seen a major, major forecasting bust here from all of the models. Much more unsettled than was shown 2-3 days ago.

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9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.9af457615eb6f7dd1916ab0ee97dc0c0.pngimage.thumb.png.8ed120c680b22baed6f624ad0db4d8ec.png

ECM this morning - oh dear! Add that to the 00z GFS ensembles:

image.thumb.png.f1946a1fe93556aa3c415d2fa5de7e57.png

I think we've probably seen a major, major forecasting bust here from all of the models. Much more unsettled than was shown 2-3 days ago.

Think that's a  good thing? Move away from static nothingness 

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5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Think that's a  good thing? Move away from static nothingness 

I'm not sure at the moment.

I'm starting to get a bit edgy seeing forecasts like below this showing a record strong PV in 3 weeks time. Ok - it doesn't automatically mean a train wreck and mild zonal weather here in the UK, but most of the time a record strong PV is bad for us. Just look at how bad last winter was with a raging PV. By most experts opinion and forecasts, our best chance of colder weather lies in early winter this year, before La Nina really sets up a strong +NAO pattern into the back end. We will be watching in anticipation. I'd love a cold December!

image.thumb.png.cd97d1574c5ad18dcc3f8ad09e4de37a.png
 

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7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I'm not sure at the moment.

I'm starting to get a bit edgy seeing forecasts like below this showing a record strong PV in 3 weeks time. Ok - it doesn't automatically mean a train wreck and mild zonal weather here in the UK, but most of the time a record strong PV is bad for us. Just look at how bad last winter was with a raging PV. By most experts opinion and forecasts, our best chance of colder weather lies in early winter this year, before La Nina really sets up a strong +NAO pattern into the back end. We will be watching in anticipation. I'd love a cold December!

image.thumb.png.cd97d1574c5ad18dcc3f8ad09e4de37a.png
 

Thank you MB. All part of what keeps us coming, we can moan and groan about our climate, but we ae also blessed that it keeps us our toes and every so often we are rewarded 🙂 

On the PV forecast, I get that any PV of substance sitting over Greenland is not good for coldies, however a record breaking PV to our north east would be something to behold - my question I guess is do these PV forecasts indicate location on PV in addition to strength.?

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14 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

This morning's GFS 00Z isn't really 'screaming' much at all; though, at T+384 there's a wee hint at an Atlantic ridge building:👀

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

I don't normally look so far ahead, but sometimes its good to do so in order to consider longer term direction and trend. 

There does appear to be a growing signal for perhaps more of a unsettled pattern rather then settled as we move through second half of November, to be expected perhaps? La Nina background forcing should support eventual development of  heights to our west, so in turn we should expect to see more movement and displacement of heights to our east, the GFS pattern shown above being very plausible evolution. 

Reading other commentary, many forecasts for November I think were caught out by tropical activity impacts in  mid-late October, yes the ridge was well forecast but instead of setting up to our west it set up to our east, hence the static very mild picture we have had and continue to look like having through mid November. These effects have now moved through the atmosphere so we should now be pre-dispositioned to more of a typical late autumn/early winter La Nina pattern, which should mean generally fairly unsettled with heights somewhere to our west - sometimes SW, sometimes more NW, which increases the chances for something colder from the north by the end of the month.

In the meantime, the static picture does appear to be shifting somewhat and we can expect a very typical November spell of weather, generally unsettled more so further north, some rain, a bit of wind - but nothing notable, and mild. Its not the most inspiring of outlooks, in a month which mostly and on many more levels this year is far from inspiring in any way.

 

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