Model output discussion - Winter approaches

[Jeremy Shockey]

GEM 0z @ 120hrs

UKMO 0z @ 120 hrs

A very narrow window for the brief Northerly on Fri 20th , just affecting the North and the East of the UK and a fleeting glimpse of the -8 isotherm. 

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

NE Canada OK..any further east and that might spell trouble.  .

Yes - it’s actually just nw of Greenland which allows for a wide range of positive outcomes for coldies but this is not a forecast at two weeks range. Just an indicator that whilst the tpv is meandering around the NH and not getting it’s act together it may end up back where it generally lives for the start of winter - still sceuro ridging remains the favoured outlook on the back of mid Atlantic trough of some kind ........ if we can get a split of the jet as discussed yesterday then there is a route to winter and some signs on the 200mb jet that it remains on the table .......

[Hotspur62]

Well the models over the last 48 hours have give us then taken away!Its seems the old 1-2 with GFS Being “ too progressive” with the Atlantic and the ECM being too generous in showing us “ too much” in terms of “heights” debate has already come alive and we are only in mid november!No doubt stats will come out about whose best at Day 10 but I wouldn’t bet against on a sudden flip again to a colder outlook for late November and early December.Interesting how the Pacific and 3.4 region has warmed up dramatically in last 5 days.Will that have an influence for us down the road?I have no idea but for me at the moment too much volatility in the models to be confident about mild or cold.I will just sit back with a glass of red from time to time(well there’s not much else we can do right?) and enjoy this wonderful forum

[Griff]

7 minutes ago, Hotspur62 said:

Well the models over the last 48 hours have give us then taken away!Its seems the old 1-2 with GFS Being “ too progressive” with the Atlantic and the ECM being too generous in showing us “ too much” in terms of “heights” debate has already come alive and we are only in mid november!No doubt stats will come out about whose best at Day 10 but I wouldn’t bet against on a sudden flip again to a colder outlook for late November and early December.Interesting how the Pacific and 3.4 region has warmed up dramatically in last 5 days.Will that have an influence for us down the road?I have no idea but for me at the moment too much volatility in the models to be confident about mild or cold.I will just sit back with a glass of red from time to time(well there’s not much else we can do right?) and enjoy this wonderful forum

Glass of red at 09:32am? Well it is 2020 so it's understandable... 

Yes agreed, plenty of flip-flopping to follow no doubt. 

[swfc]

6 minutes ago, Griff said:

Glass of red at 09:32am? Well it is 2020 so it's understandable... 

Yes agreed, plenty of flip-flopping to follow no doubt. 

Yes very understandable and I've got my flip flops on readywouldn't expect anything major over the coming 7 days except the odd run ie yesterday's ec 12z run. That said you can live in hope or shovel it in rotherham

[Griff]

Various likenesses to a rabbit, that's about it... 

[damianslaw]

As expected more flip flopping from run to run, I'm not looking beyond 120 hr range at present. Expect more over rest of today, if you like consistency today will he a very frustrating one.

[swfc]

2 hours ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

 

Slight but subtle change on the 6z gfs is the push of Heighths threw svalbard heading nnw. May not alter the run but could put pressure on the Atlantic low heading east. 

[Griff]

17 minutes ago, swfc said:

Slight but subtle change on the 6z gfs is the push of Heighths threw svalbard heading nnw. May not alter the run but could put pressure on the Atlantic low heading east. 

Yes and more interesting, potentially, out west over north America, just for fun

Edited November 15, 2020 by Griff

[Allseasons-Si]

12 minutes ago, swfc said:

Slight but subtle change on the 6z gfs is the push of Heighths threw svalbard heading nnw. May not alter the run but could put pressure on the Atlantic low heading east. 

Yes,a lot more amplified this run compared to the 00z...

beast from the east round 4,596,473 anyone

to be honest,flip flops spring to mind or is it a flop?

[Griff]

9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes,a lot more amplified this run compared to the 00z...

beast from the east round 4,596,473 anyone

to be honest,flip flops spring to mind or is it a flop?

I think that's the hope, at the very least it's not looking locked on as flat Atlantic (yet) 

Eastern Europe looking cold if this was to happen... 

Edited November 15, 2020 by Griff

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I sense a little trepidation this morning from some of you.. What's the general rule on this forum over the years?? Don't get to hung up over a few operational runs!! Especially from a model that runs 4 times daily, and includes 30 ensemble members! It's towards the backend of this month and more especially early December... When I feelthings will spring to life... Pardon the pun. Are there any ensembles flagging this up?? Well simply put.. YES! 

On a lighter note... I'm a bit concerned about the having a glass of wine at 9.30am post... Come on guys at least wait till Sunday roast... Seriously enjoy your days and take care.... Onwards and upwards..

[Penrith Snow]

There are only three certain things in life 'Death, Taxes and a ECM +240 that never happens'  

So many times over recent winters the ECM comes out with a wonderful 240 chart only for it to vanish quickly or qradually.

It was always thus.

Andy

[TSNWK]

6 minutes ago, MATT said:

I sense a little trepidation this morning from some of you.. What's the general rule on this forum over the years?? Don't get to hung up over a few operational runs!! Especially from a model that runs 4 times daily, and includes 30 ensemble members! It's towards the backend of this month and more especially early December... When I feelthings will spring to life... Pardon the pun. Are there any ensembles flagging this up?? Well simply put.. YES! 

On a lighter note... I'm a bit concerned about the having a glass of wine at 9.30am post... Come on guys at least wait till Sunday roast... Seriously enjoy your days and take care.... Onwards and upwards..

Oh  no! One of my key indicators of worries for coldies.  A flurry of far out ensemble members being wheeled out   

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Oh  no! One of my key indicators of worries for coldies.  A flurry of far out ensemble members being wheeled out   

I get your point TSNWK.. The reason I showed those ensembles were just to see if there was any backing for those current Exeter thoughts, and the EC extended anomalies that also point towards a colder December... Its all a long way off, and at this point anything goes.. I would like to see those extended ensembles I posted still showing in another week though... Not to much to hope for us it..

[SLEETY]

When was the last time in winter that one of those amazing gfs ENSEMBLE permutations ever came off? 

 

THINKING??? 

Models not very consistent at the moment, expecting a colder set of runs later today. pan widget

Edited November 15, 2020 by SLEETY

[Frosty.]

WOW..winter is coming according to the Gfs 6z..ps..great posts Matt and others..shame I’m being severely hamstrung in my ability to reward such great posts..but that’s the way it is..for me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited November 15, 2020 by Jon Snow

[Allseasons-Si]

There is quite a bit of interest in the ens post day ten regarding heights to our N/NE.

[swfc]

20 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

There is quite a bit of interest in the ens post day ten regarding heights to our N/NE.

Indeed some crackers!!! Wonder if there's ever been a full house of great charts, 2009-2010

[Frosty.]

Hmmm how do things look on the cusp of the meteorological winter?..you know, there’s always some argument about when winter starts..blah blah..it starts on dec 1st for gods sake!...anyway, looking at the GEFS 6z..things could be worse..or better?

 

[AFC Snow]

1 hour ago, Penrith Snow said:

There are only three certain things in life 'Death, Taxes and a ECM +240 that never happens'  

So many times over recent winters the ECM comes out with a wonderful 240 chart only for it to vanish quickly or qradually.

It was always thus.

Andy

Never mind 240, it has produced many phantom northerlies at 144 in recent years. I have taken the approach of binning it if other models don’t show similar.

[Nick F]

The signal to maintain higher heights to our NE over Scandi / NW Russia is certainly still there in ensemble guidance ... but it seems a question of how far east the Atlantic trough will try and push. Operational runs of the models so far today pushing the Atlantic trough too far east. Always seems a long shot to get the Scandi high to back far enough west as we head through late November and winter, though no problem any other time of year, generally because of default of a deep tropospheric vortex close to our NW, that drives most of our late Autumn and winter weather, driving too much upper flow energy over the UK and towards Scandi.

[swfc]

37 minutes ago, Nick F said:

The signal to maintain higher heights to our NE over Scandi / NW Russia is certainly still there in ensemble guidance ... but it seems a question of how far east the Atlantic trough will try and push. Operational runs of the models so far today pushing the Atlantic trough too far east. Always seems a long shot to get the Scandi high to back far enough west as we head through late November and winter, though no problem any other time of year, generally because of default of a deep tropospheric vortex close to our NW, that drives most of our late Autumn and winter weather, driving too much upper flow energy over the UK and towards Scandi.

Hi nick. Why does it always seem impossible to get a decent block coming out off the esb or Canada and cutting it off at source. I understand the mechanics of the PV but does it always Need a west based negative nao or ssw to achieve this. Tia

Edited November 15, 2020 by swfc

[Geordiesnow]

19 minutes ago, swfc said:

Hi nick. Why does it always seem impossible to get a decent block coming out off the esb or Canada and cutting it off at source. I understand the mechanics of the PV but does it always Need a west based negative nao or ssw to achieve this. Tia

I think its fair to say in this instance, it was not a true ridge(e g thicknesses were never in the yellow category) so it's one of those where it could easily collapse which will have consequences downstream for us. As I said last night, if the ridging is weaker than first thought, the outlook will very quickly turn flat with the Atlantic weather coming back into play. 

However we have seen much stronger ridges collapsing because of shortwaves and there is no doubt a true Atlantic ridge which does not collapse within 24 hours is getting rarer and rarer hence true Northerlies are also getting more rare by the decade. Maybe the jet stream is stronger these days due to warmer air getting warmer so the contrast between the cold air and warm is larger these days than it used to be but who knows. 

Let's not forget though, a model outlook can quickly change to favour cold again so never give up hope. 

Edited November 15, 2020 by Geordiesnow

[BlueHedgehog074]

16 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

That's a cool high

now come on,have you been in Knockers crayon draw

 

It’s not my fault, @knocker left his drawer open

A bit disappointing to find the 00Z ECMWF discard that Scandinavian High scenario it had towards the end of its previous run. Having said that, it still has some High Pressure building over and to the East/South-East of the UK, so things, particularly towards Southern UK would dry out a bit. Probably just a variation really of what could happen. Plus, with it only being November, lots of time for some colder, wintry spells of weather to emerge 

Edited November 15, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine