Model output discussion - Winter approaches

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yep, about to see big N Atlantic heights post 270 hrs but it's all just for fun at that range!

Gavin P was recently talking in one of his videos about the need to shift the PV away from North America over towards Siberia... 

I know Canada always gets mentioned. 

[northwestsnow]

Nope, Steve was right ...

Looks rotten....

Next...

[Zak M]

2 hours ago, Zak M said:

See you all on the next episode of 'Your Daily Dose of CFS' 

Pah, last CFS charts from me today.

White Christmas anyone?

   

[Tim Bland]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Are we going to see a classic Nina footprint on 18z?

Ie scandy trough ,Atlantic blocked?

Good call, looks like it’s headed that way. Very different from last run though Could be one of those ‘All roads lead to Rome’ situations regarding a cold end to the month...

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Gavin P was recently talking in one of his videos about the need to shift the PV away from North America over towards Siberia... 

I know Canada always gets mentioned. 

Yeah because our default weather comes from there AKA Zonality

we just need some amplification downstream to buckle the jet into a more meridional flow and slow the zonal train down(+NAO) but that is just one part of the process,we also need some heights into the pole to disrupt the tpv.

[Allseasons-Si]

30 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Nope, Steve was right ...

Looks rotten....

Next...

I wouldn't worry NWS,there is uncertainties regarding this northerly next weekend

look at the stamps at just 108 hrs

Shannon hasn't been mentioned this season,just saying

[Geordiesnow]

2 hours ago, Anthony Burden said:

What a big difference between models gfs low pressure all the way,ecm high pressure oriented.

We will get a better idea tomorrow,my feeling would be on ecm because of the met office thinking

regarding high pressure,not to say that ecm 240 hrs will turn out exactly as shown,but all the same 

I no what outcome I prefer.

Model experience tells me as soon as the models start reducing any potential heights, it will change the outlook very quickly to a flatter and much less blocked pattern(it can and happen the other way too). Both the ECM and UKMO has a flatter jet in the short term, ECM sort of recovers it but again, if its too amplified in the short term and its wrong then the rest of the output will be also. 

Odds would favour a brief colder flow and then back to the Atlantic weather but we seen the output swing before so never say never. 

[SLEETY]

 A one day northerly toppler then back to zonal crud.Someone  change the record  .Thats the actual reality AGAIN,unless ECM pulls out a miracle.

Time to hop out for a while...

Edited November 15, 2020 by SLEETY

[feb1991blizzard]

an enormous PV on the 0z

[swfc]

25 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

 A one day northerly toppler then back to zonal crud.Someone  change the record  .Thats the actual reality AGAIN,unless ECM pulls out a miracle.

Time to hop out for a while...

I think the writing was on the wall yesterday early doors when the pressure around the Eastern Sea board and Canada drained away. The gap soon filled and the PV moved sse. Still yesterday's big swing ec so who knows

Edited November 15, 2020 by swfc

[swfc]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

an enormous PV on the 0z

Yes up tick in zonal winds I think forecast.

[swfc]

Ec very flat and I think for now the ship has sailed for any easterly even tho it was a long shot. Time for a reboot of some sort imo. Where from and how I've no idea. See what the next 7 - 10 days bring

[DavidS]

ECM 00z goes a similar route as the GFS 00z, with the favourable height rises now getting smooshed by the energy south of Greenland.

 

[sheikhy]

Some pretty lame charts this morning!!!gone is the amplification and we are now back to square one!!even a frost will be hard to get on the gfs!!

[SMU]

Looks like the nina footprint that everyones going on about is going to disappear in the mud rather than snow...

All models now progressive apart the UKMO & GEM touting a chance of blocking - out past day 6 -8..

Not the best entry as we are windswept towards December...

[swfc]

9 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Are we going to see a classic Nina footprint on 18z?

Ie scandy trough ,Atlantic blocked?

Hi nw. La Nina is currently central based in the Pacific and not in the Eastern vacinity. Favoured for a milder winter in the said position. Little impact if any currently forecast in the nhp

Edited November 15, 2020 by swfc

[Chesil View]

Well operational wise it's all gone a bit meh this morning however the GFS does have a good number of significantly cold ensemble members as we head into December.

[swfc]

27 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Well operational wise it's all gone a bit meh this morning however the GFS does have a good number of significantly cold ensemble members as we head into December.

Yes there are. If you look on the gfs 10hpa strat run tho there's a big increase ie cooling going on threw the next 14 daysI think that can only fire up the zonal outlook sadly. Initially towards siberia but moving west. All that said its mid November and the rapid cooling isn't exceptional along with the uptick in zonal winds.

Edited November 15, 2020 by swfc

[nick sussex]

The outputs this morning have hit the buffers in terms of any potential cold.

The ECM after promising something to keep cold lovers interested last night now sticks an ugly looking PV to the west .

That model should really come with a health warning for coldies , the last few winters it’s really been very awol in its later stages.

 

[Jordan S]

A very wet midweek for Scotland in particular with prolonged and at times heavy rain tomorrow night and through to Wednesday afternoon as a set of weather fronts move northeast, this effecting north wales and northwest England tomorrow evening and night aswell but clearing north on Tuesday here before returning on Wednesday as the cold front moves east..

altogether on the hills 40-60mm is likely but for western Scotland as it will rain for much of this time 70-100mm falling possibly upto 120mm.. 

heavy and persistent rain also effecting the northern isles at times too and with cold air moving south to the north of this the western edge may fall as sleet or snow mostly on higher ground of Scotland as it moves southeast and clears here on Thursday. 

For the rest of thursday a few wintry showers mostly for the far north mainly on high ground perhaps some to lower levels. 
Then by friday turning milder along with another band of rain moving east perhaps sleet snow on higher ground at first most likely Scotland. 

[Mr Frost]

On 13/11/2020 at 12:00, Mr Frost said:

My head says NW/N toppler scenario with snowfall on the higher hills/mountains, wintry showers on low ground for the North and a few frosts down South.  

Morning all

I think we all knew the outcome of this brief cold blast next Thursday through Friday! 

Few snapshots this morning from the latest UKV for the days above - subject to change at this range. 

If you live in that area covered by the 528 dam line you are in with a chance of seeing a snowflake at least - down to quite low levels. 

With regards to mountains...Cairngorms are in for a pasting. 
Most likely on and off snowfall Thursday through to Saturday. 

 

Other areas at risk of some sleet/snow showers in this flow of course high ground of Northern Ireland/parts of Ireland, Pennines, Lake District, Yorkshire Dales and Snowdonia of course. 

Cold night for the North - predicted temperatures for Friday 03:00.

 

Friday the coldest day of the week for the UK and Ireland. (milder Saturday)

So nothing too exciting for the majority of us but it is still only November - Winter is yet to begin of course. 

I don’t give a monkeys what any long range outlook/model forecasts for this Winter - whether that be above average, average or below...what will be...will be! 

I always enjoy the chase no matter what the season is and remain forever hopeful that we all get whatever weather we crave.  (Mild, cold, snow, named storm, thunderstorms, frost, fog, kitchen sink ect ect)

Have a good Sunday everyone!

Edited November 15, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Faronstream]

GFS 0Z operational is clearly on the milder side compared to average of all other members. Still hope for colder than average from 20th november and the month out.

[Griff]

The mighty GEM keeping yesterday's dream alive (), and one run doesn't make a winter etc! 

(OK possibly only posting this because the clocks about to tick over from 799, my self esteem is about to go into meltdown ) 

 

[bluearmy]

10 hours ago, Griff said:

Gavin P was recently talking in one of his videos about the need to shift the PV away from North America over towards Siberia... 

I know Canada always gets mentioned. 

Extended eps beginning to show the major centre back towards ne Canada after being pretty undefined for quite a while .... but not as strong as might be expected for back end nov 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Extended eps beginning to show the major centre back towards ne Canada after being pretty undefined for quite a while .... but not as strong as might be expected for back end nov 

NE Canada OK..any further east and that might spell trouble.  .