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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


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Hi all . I’m back from my summer hibernation . A warm welcome to all the new members . It’s hard to believe we’re back again chasing those hard to come by good winter charts . It’s true the older

This is the ECM at 96 hrs v's the reanalysis for the 3rd of Nov 2010 and bears similarities in our part of the world now you wouldn't think that the epic winter of 2010 would come from that

Time to start wheeling out the ECM snow depth charts then 😍. Please remember it is mandatory to reply with how unreliable they are and how it accumulates all falling snow even if it doesn’t settle bla

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    4 minutes ago, Griff said:

    GFS is drunk, 💯 likely to verify 🤪

    gfsnh-0-336.png

    The Goofus? 😆

    That cold over in Europe was so close, yet so far. That blocking over Scandi and the North Sea stalls there for quite a while too.

    gfseu-0-348.png

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    34 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Again cue shouts of overly progressive GFS... 

    Lets hope it is overly progressive!!

    image.thumb.png.dbbf6657af5b5d89333faceca290c3df.png

    Because if that's overly progressive, we are in business, with that cold trough over Russia about to inject a load of potent air into the continent, imagine that a good few hundred miles further West with that trough to the west of us looking very undercutty.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    Just now, Zak M said:

    The GooFuS? 😆

    That cold over in Europe was so close, yet so far. It stalls there for quite a while too.

    gfseu-0-348.png

    Good thing it's only likely to improve and inch westwards, run on run, until it counts down to an early beast Christmas present... Hiccup 

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

    But, goodness me, they're exciting!:drunk-emoji:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Remember tho GC "the trend is your friend" and what do "wedges" make😱😱😱🍻🍻🍻🍻

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    Interesting negative tilt on the Atlantic trough as the high builds to the north and east

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    5 minutes ago, Griff said:

    GFS is drunk, 💯 likely to verify 🤪

    gfsnh-0-336.png

    Sounds like a plan HIC 🍻

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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

    spacer.pngGEM 12 z @ t144

    spacer.pngUKMO 12 z @ t144

    spacer.pngGFS 12 z @ t144

     

    UKMO at t144 is the best so far for cold flooding South ( briefly ) on Fri 20th.

    -8 isotherm into North East of the UK for a few hours and would likely deliver some snow to Northern hills  

     

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    I sincerely feel sorry for anyone who's just checking in and might actually get excited and hope from this run! 😂 

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    1 minute ago, Griff said:

    I sincerely feel sorry for anyone who's just checking in and might actually get excited and hope from this run! 😂 

    Me too and I apologise. BTW a slider to finish the run, rain but sliding 🏃🏃🏃

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    Some very cold air sneaking round the back that high to our North east as we head into December.

    All good fun at this range but a very possible outcome.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    1 minute ago, swfc said:

    Me too and I apologise. BTW a slider to finish the run, rain but sliding 🏃🏃🏃

    I think we're all celebrating your Birthday, swfc? As Ollie Reed might've said: Hic!😄:drunk-emoji:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Certainly enough hints in the NWP at present to suggest a cold spell may be on the way within the next 4 weeks.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    I'll probably fall asleep before it comes out but very interested in the 12z ECMWF. Hoping for heights to the north again (confirmation bias is a wonderful thing and guilty as charged). 

    7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Certainly enough hints in the NWP at present to suggest a cold spell may be on the way within the next 4 weeks.

     

    Edited by Griff
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Certainly enough hints in the NWP at present to suggest a cold spell may be on the way within the next 4 weeks.

    We live in hope crewe👍👍👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
    24 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    The fundamental point we should be taking from output over the past few weeks is that we're seeing a tendency for the trough to approach us on a more NW/SE axis.

    This suggests to me that we are currently predisposed to a more meridional jet flow. This bodes well going into December...

    Agree there Crew, Signals certainly suggest sharp PM flows and  transient Northerly's. Which is a good start.

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    EC is actually quite a cold run as high pressure generally keeps the UK settled.

    Hoping for some frosty nights ....

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Looks very much like the near back door easterly gfs tried early is manifesting on ec👀👀👀👀🔙

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    3 minutes ago, swfc said:

    Looks very much like the near back door easterly gfs tried early is manifesting on ec👀👀👀👀🔙

    Like this? 

    ECH1-240 (1).gif

    ECH0-240.gif

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