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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Quite a bit of flip flopping between model runs at the edge of reliable range range right now (144-168hrs), often a sign models are struggling to adjust to signal of a pattern change. Expecting future runs between all models over rest of the weekend to show various scenarios for this time next week, and it won't be until early next week before a sense of coming together will occur. With that fully expecting at least one GFS run to show a raging northerly, followed by a long-fetch south westerly and atlantic steam rolling through, usually a sign we end up with something in the middle. 

    General direction of travel probably is looking to our NW for our weather as we move through latter part of the month than any other direction, i.e. the attack and forcing is from the NW, which means most likely 'seasonal', and quite different in feel to the first two thirds of the month which so far has been dank, dreary and very mild.. hopefully some welcome sunshine will be back and frost.

    Edited by damianslaw
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    Hi all . I’m back from my summer hibernation . A warm welcome to all the new members . It’s hard to believe we’re back again chasing those hard to come by good winter charts . It’s true the older

    This is the ECM at 96 hrs v's the reanalysis for the 3rd of Nov 2010 and bears similarities in our part of the world now you wouldn't think that the epic winter of 2010 would come from that

    Time to start wheeling out the ECM snow depth charts then 😍. Please remember it is mandatory to reply with how unreliable they are and how it accumulates all falling snow even if it doesn’t settle bla

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    9 hours ago, That ECM said:

    T144 ukmo, gfs and gfs mean. Ukmo is preferred. I find the gfs mean interesting as it is more like the ukmo. Many of the ens are not dissimilar to ukmo. Let’s see what ecm brings.

    3271C37A-D538-470D-A3D9-9D03EE4604FA.png

    6759B2C5-C426-47C5-8637-DF01155478C6.png

    57C949E2-2354-476F-A5A6-836C51DF5A26.png

    Tantalising isn't it? If only the runs only went as far as +144... Maybe there's no point looking beyond then anyway? 🤷‍♂️ 

    😜

    navgemnh-0-144.png

    JN144-21.gif

    UN144-21 (2).gif

    gemnh-0-144.png

    iconnh-0-144 (2).png

    geosnh-0-144.png

    ECH1-144.gif

     

    JMA should probably be the 168 etc 

    (you get the point) JN168-21.thumb.gif.84890522b32ddbc927569f570f2e9d34.gif

    Edited by Griff
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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl

    ICON is out and it does'nt look good for snow prospects🤦‍♂️ 😄

     

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    9 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

    ICON is out and it does'nt look good for snow prospects🤦‍♂️ 😄

     

    Pretty similar to the 6z gfs, that's not saying much tho tbh 😒😒

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    13 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

    ICON is out and it does'nt look good for snow prospects🤦‍♂️ 😄

     

    To be fair it does.... in Norway! 🇳🇴 

    🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    GFS 12z is looking a tad more amplified early doors (with wishful thinking and a bit of squinting). 

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Tbh I think the die is cast earlier on down the west coast of greenland. The earlier Heighths pushing out of the USA have all but gone. Fi "about 144-172 hrs starts" could go on to show some decent output?? 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, swfc said:

    Tbh I think the die is cast earlier on down the west coast of greenland. The earlier Heighths pushing out of the USA have all but gone. Fi "about 144-172 hrs starts" could go on to show some decent output?? 

    As others commented earlier, nothing much happening with high pressure to the south west of us, and gone has yesterday's plunge into Europe... Always nice to see a suggestion of pressure rising over Iceland (the country not the popular value supermarket)... On this run it's to the benefit of Scandinavia... 

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    3 minutes ago, Griff said:

    As others commented earlier, nothing much happening with high pressure to the south west of us, and gone has yesterday's plunge into Europe... Always nice to see a suggestion of pressure rising over Iceland (the country not the popular value supermarket)... On this run it's to the benefit of Scandinavia... 

    Yes I'd agree. The original runs which forced south east into Europe were aided by Heighths exiting the esb and threw the northern Atlantic. Hopefully they return and the jet takes a more advantageous course 🤞🤞

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    2 hours ago, Griff said:

    Strange days (well it is 2020) when the presumption is that the GFS  is more likely than Exeter... Not that I'm saying otherwise! 

    Cue the usual "xyz model is dross" etc etc (it's been a while, so might as well get one in now)... 😜

    Where are Exeter predicting cooler and chances of snow this week? 

    Possibly colder by or around the 28th I feel. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

    Where are Exeter predicting cooler and chances of snow this week? 

    Possibly colder by or around the 28th I feel. 

    Or do you mean UKMO model, having read your post again bud. 

     

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Just as a side note yet again not a rampant PV plus some minor heights around greenland appearing??? 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    Just now, winterof79 said:

    Or do you mean UKMO? Having read your post again bud. 

     

    Correct UKMO chart not a forecast, my laziness at fault 😅

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    12z UKMO looks good and is quite similar to its run this morning. Would more than likely bring some snow to higher ground of N England and Scotland if it verifies of course.

    UW144-21.thumb.gif.6ba3a9df97ea3e66e5eb9f30ec895456.gif   UW144-7.thumb.gif.60dd2423c4d3d4afec86d9921090757c.gif

    This model actually shifts the cold a bit more westwards than the 12z GFS and the 12z ICON.

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    Just now, swfc said:

    Just as a side note yet again not a rampant PV plus some minor heights around greenland appearing??? 

    Yes this is where things are getting interesting, with regards to coupling or a potential disconnect... (see previous post regarding wishful thinking 😜

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, Zak M said:

    12z UKMO looks good and is quite similar to its run this morning. Would more than likely bring some snow to higher ground of N England and Scotland if it verifies of course.

    UW144-21.thumb.gif.6ba3a9df97ea3e66e5eb9f30ec895456.gif

    This model actually shifts the cold a bit more westwards than the 12z GFS and the 12z ICON.

    Again cue shouts of overly progressive GFS... 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    8 minutes ago, swfc said:

    Just as a side note yet again not a rampant PV plus some minor heights around greenland appearing??? 

    It's fi, but a hint on the 12z

    gfsnh-0-222 (2).png

    gfsnh-0-228.png

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    9 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Again cue shouts of overly progressive GFS... 

    Indeed and cue azores high pushing ene😏😏😏

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    I salivate at the mention of heights appearing, and then the penny drops, and I bother to check the temps... 😂

     

     

    14 minutes ago, swfc said:

    Just as a side note yet again not a rampant PV plus some minor heights around greenland appearing??? 

    It's fi, but a hint on the 12z

    gfsnh-0-246 (2).png

    gfsnh-1-246 (1).png

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Very fickle gfs today, huge swings. Is it the model or things that up In the air??? 🤔🤔🤔Could be a backdoor easterly here👀👀👀👀🤣

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    8 minutes ago, swfc said:

    Very fickle gfs today, huge swings. Is it the model or things that up In the air??? 🤔🤔🤔Could be a backdoor easterly here👀👀👀👀🤣

    Yes, pay no regard to deep fi it will only give rise to unfounded hope... Or does it? 

    Hint... Don't look east 🤪

    gfsnh-1-300.png

    Edited by Griff
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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    The UKMO has a deeper cold air mass  over the British Isles compared to the GFS at day 6.  The GFS looks quite fluid in comparison, whist the UKMO entrenches the cold in situ. See if this evenings ECM run sides with or produces something. Anyways looks like an active cold front to pass through the UK mid week with quite a temp drop after its passage.

    c

     

    UN144-7.gif

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