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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    16 hours ago, CreweCold said:

    It might not be, but hemispherically you can see pressure repeatedly being placed on the zonal hemispheric flow by that Russian HP. 

    Personally I would not discount a SSW mid winter...

    Well as expected, the northerly the ECM was showing previously isnt a pattern change. Fair point though about the Russian HP.

    I have no opinion myself on the possibilities of a mid winter SSW, thats too far ahead, ill wait to see what the SPV does first before thinking about a SSW.

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    Hi all . I’m back from my summer hibernation . A warm welcome to all the new members . It’s hard to believe we’re back again chasing those hard to come by good winter charts . It’s true the older

    This is the ECM at 96 hrs v's the reanalysis for the 3rd of Nov 2010 and bears similarities in our part of the world now you wouldn't think that the epic winter of 2010 would come from that

    Time to start wheeling out the ECM snow depth charts then 😍. Please remember it is mandatory to reply with how unreliable they are and how it accumulates all falling snow even if it doesn’t settle bla

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    Well as expected, the northerly the ECM was showing previously isnt a pattern change. Fair point though about the Russian HP.

    I have no opinion myself on the possibilities of a mid winter SSW, thats too far ahead, ill wait to see what the SPV does first before thinking about a SSW.

    Well it looks like it’s strengthening big time high up but lower down remains quite subdued .....I’m not going to second guess what follows that although it would seem obvious ... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    ECM 240 hrs has tracking low centre southwest of U.K. interesting track if it remains.
    Keeping the cooler/ colder theme going for most of U.K. and unsettled.

    All waiting to see where the high pressure will form as the met office suggest after this 

    unsettled spell.Very interesting and hopeful for cold weather fans.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    Looks to me like the normal ebb and flow in nwp this morning as we head to towards something more seasonal.

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    6 z gfs again early doors has lost the Heighths exiting the the esb ete. Leaves the PV to pump up and spread sse. Not sure where that leaves things long term but Id suspect a more mobile west to east flow. Hopefully wrong as usual but hey ho and all thst🍻🍻

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    21 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Happy Birthday, swfc...I was being introduced to the 'wonders' of school, when you were born!👍

    ThanksGC. Yes the clocks ticking isn't it pal🙄🙄🙄

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    But Monday and Tuesday look okay... I guess I'm one of those odd faqirs, who think that very mild conditions can be as good as very cold!

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Well, whaddayouknow: a synoptic that, back in the 1960s, might have produced 3-hours' steady snowfall... But, in our currently warming world -- bugger all!

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Edited by General Cluster
    Lost marbles!
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    30 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Well it looks like it’s strengthening big time high up but lower down remains quite subdued .....I’m not going to second guess what follows that although it would seem obvious ... 

    Yup, they will stay disconnected until march 😉

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Sticking my neck out here but i think 12zs shall upgrade the wedge of heights across greenland/iceland between 120 and 144 hours!!gfs 06z stil same as the 00z!!!ukmo looks the best of the lot at 144 hours!

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Sticking my neck out here but i think 12zs shall upgrade the wedge of heights across greenland/iceland between 120 and 144 hours!!gfs 06z stil same as the 00z!!!ukmo looks the best of the lot at 144 hours!

    Yes the 6z is better on the nhp for sure. PV pretty much on its ars yet we still look like pulling in a wsw wind around day ten 😒😒😒cheers southern europe👀👀

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Waiting to see a run that extends the Atlantic trough extension se rather than ne or ene. We do see break away small systems running se (interestingly as the timing gets closer) but so far, all the models seem to extend the Azores ridge ene in week 2

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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

    spacer.pngGFS 6 z @ 144 hrs ( 850 hPa )

    A brief window of interest on Fri 20th for the North and East of the country according to the GFS 6z.

    Nice to see the -8 isotherm making an appearance on the model output within the 7 day range i suppose

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Waiting to see a run that extends the Atlantic trough extension se rather than ne or ene. We do see break away small systems running se (interestingly as the timing gets closer) but so far, all the models seem to extend the Azores ridge ene in week 2

    Yep, day 7 is critical. Ecm day 7 highlights what you are referring to. What is that energy to the west going to do? Fast forward to day 10 and we do start to see some propensity for energy to head south east. Lets see what the 12z runs bring. Fascinating as ever. 

    Screenshot_20201114-105423.png

    Screenshot_20201114-105451.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Heyyy! GFS 06Z at T+384... exciting innit!😁👍

    h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

    More runs needed?🖕

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Wow, wow, wow..hey I sound like zeroblog on youtube..check him out, he’s a funny dude..anyway...the message from the Gfs 6z op is head north, drive up to the north of Scotland for a brief taste of winter later next week..wow..wow!😜🧐🥶🤪 ❄️ 

    27D3321C-5700-4C0E-AC75-DD19A731A9E6.thumb.jpeg.c042175ba5ba04d1479593fd8a42c071.jpeg333D5748-7981-4E76-9988-ADDEDC236F17.thumb.jpeg.32802640f7895af86d077342db718da8.jpeg6255581E-09D0-4ED0-875D-348422DE13E2.thumb.jpeg.7d8a08c4e9efb926e0fbf2ace901a200.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    10 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    Wow, wow, wow..hey I sound like zeroblog on youtube..check him out, he’s a funny dude..anyway...the message from the Gfs 6z op is head north, drive up to the north of Scotland for a brief taste of winter later next week..wow..wow!😜🧐🥶🤪 ❄️ 

    27D3321C-5700-4C0E-AC75-DD19A731A9E6.thumb.jpeg.c042175ba5ba04d1479593fd8a42c071.jpeg333D5748-7981-4E76-9988-ADDEDC236F17.thumb.jpeg.32802640f7895af86d077342db718da8.jpeg6255581E-09D0-4ED0-875D-348422DE13E2.thumb.jpeg.7d8a08c4e9efb926e0fbf2ace901a200.jpeg

    Think it might get much colder everywhere, models are only slowly adjusting to a big pattern change. Maybe a prolonged cold spell. 

     

    Will you be around if the snow arrives considering you manage to pre_order a ps5 lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Now this is what i want to happen....

    Pert 12

    anim_kip2.thumb.gif.493e3d909b356de0f83c42c7f3640211.gifanim_hma5.thumb.gif.1c7cf6e494babb12d4a0375b25a857d4.gif

    ....but i know it won't😆

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    Just now, Allseasons-si said:

    Now this is what i want to happen....

    anim_kip2.thumb.gif.493e3d909b356de0f83c42c7f3640211.gifanim_hma5.thumb.gif.1c7cf6e494babb12d4a0375b25a857d4.gif

    ....but i know it won't😆

    Perfect timing if it were a month on! Still, a welcome change if it were to transpire even in November.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    20 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    Will you be around if the snow arrives considering you manage to pre_order a ps5 lol

    Wow, wow, I would have given you a like for that sleety if I had any..thanks mods!😜

    Anyway, this upcoming cold snap..if it happens at all, has come out of left field, never anticipated anything wintry before December but perhaps we will see something colder?..ps..what happened to the anticyclonic charts recently???they have imploded..anyway, bye for now.😜

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    23 minutes ago, MP-R said:

    Perfect timing if it were a month on! Still, a welcome change if it were to transpire even in November.

    It would deliver in late November with surface flow off the continent .......single gefs members being quoted are never a good sign though ...

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

    Waiting to see a run that extends the Atlantic trough extension se rather than ne or ene. We do see break away small systems running se (interestingly as the timing gets closer) but so far, all the models seem to extend the Azores ridge ene in week 2

    Over the years I have found the models seem to take an age to make their minds up when a change to a split or se tracking jet might be in the air.   The one exception being nov  2010.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

    A slight deterioration in the forecast for cold & snow potential this week ( with the exception being the UKMO )

    GFS 06z very progressive with the atlantic > thus not allowing the cold to become established across the uk before being swept away East.

    Usually the meeting point is a halfway house which may then present some chances of snow for Scotland...

    If UKMO correct then wintryness more widespread...

    Strange days (well it is 2020) when the presumption is that the GFS  is more likely than Exeter... Not that I'm saying otherwise! 

    Cue the usual "xyz model is dross" etc etc (it's been a while, so might as well get one in now)... 😜

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    In a way, I think if it went out further, the UKMO would likely lead to a similar scenario of the 00Z NAVGEM. The mid-Atlantic and Icelandic High showing some fairly decent amplification where the Low on its Western side becomes negatively tilted and rather squashed, as it shifts Eastwards under those wedge of heights to our North. Compared to some other models, there’s more amplification to that High Pressure, and the mid to Western Atlantic Lows don’t blow away that ridging. 

    A7EB011C-07BE-404C-9245-BC77B36FDADC.thumb.png.6b8f7fa122734f606c744387e7d3e1f0.png92B80CFC-8679-4B0C-8711-4F3B088AF57D.thumb.png.94236d6d09b60ed7a07958321b61648f.png8A613A8E-73C0-4B3D-9F00-5FA60BC10B09.thumb.png.a7696aafd7fd17efb3c437a8a1c4aed9.png627DC52C-E42A-4017-A340-3EE71A556127.thumb.png.2db157f1611d67d6787c6082f082085f.png

    However, it’s likely that the Low to our West in the Northern Atlantic would push/disrupt in a more Southerly track under that mid-Atlantic and Icelandic ridging on the UKMO, thanks to the Azores High generally suppressed further South. Better possibilities for keeping the cold going, and probably not necessarily for just Northern UK:

    A65AE5C6-2489-4ABD-BCD8-B10EDEF9A384.thumb.jpeg.70bbd93eb5172e09b9753200b36d91aa.jpeg

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