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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
25 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes presto...day 10 is excellent

image.thumb.png.67474fd28fd659c6ddd881c0543521b9.png

Yes presto!?!...so where is the northerly from yesterday's 12z at 240z+? I wonder if we might get another month of the good ol' day 10 potential of December 2018 over again?

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Last year.....

archivesnh-2019-12-4-12-0.thumb.png.0b79d679914114a7834e1ace83d2ce33.png

Possible way forward this year...

ECH1-240.thumb.png.3fa042f145ee4c5b81de1dd1f43e3344.png

Make your own minds up which you prefer going into Winter...

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
9 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Yes presto!?!...so where is the northerly from yesterday's 12z at 240z+? I wonder if we might get another month of the good ol' day 10 potential of December 2018 over again?

Variation of a theme some might say and a cold theme be that... great to see we are debating types of cold instead of scratching around for a 24 hour toppler...

With the broad scale hemisphere shaping up nicely we are without doubt at least seeing the best spell of model watching for coldies since Feb 2018...

Yes they have to deliver.. but  for 24th november they are banks for me

Edited by TSNWK
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
29 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Well this just shows that northern blocking is not everything. Cold locked away and I'm guessing warm air would sweep across whole Europe after this.

That's an anomaly chart though and they always look better than they actually are. Pressure anomaly charts are very misleading. Those reds have to be very dark or even turning black to represent anything of real significance

Having said that, if people are complaining with how things look tonight then I'm not really sure what people were expecting to see this evening

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Coming into the thread fresh, so to speak (haven’t read it lol) but looking at those last three frames of the ECM operational it really caught my eye. 
 

A quite unusual progression with the big Atlantic ridge going OVER THE TROUGH and forcing it south, in turn creating a substantially blocked pattern.
 

In all my years model watching I can’t recall such a scenario. Obviously it’s only a single operation run but thought it was worth a post!

 

59CBC727-65E4-4E4B-9B9D-15CB6E7F92B5.thumb.png.73364bbfb946147b043977009258dc5b.png2D5B0F51-024B-4E20-AD81-9651DDEE19B7.thumb.png.6b13bd38ff082186232944ef09d25ce8.png30B20628-8C01-41B4-8105-427BB31E01F5.thumb.png.df0d16d4d1e2cd0a34c02fecd51abc3d.png

Edited by chris55
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Bit early this year with the rutting lads!!! I'd be guessing that know one can give any outcome at ten days away but hey ho. Looking at todays output it's at least a dry scene with a seasonal theme. Not a lot of west to east Atlantic weather given numerous areas of high pressure. Not bad going into winter and then it's anyone's guess. Enjoy

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
38 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Well this just shows that northern blocking is not everything. Cold locked away and I'm guessing warm air would sweep across whole Europe after this.

Agree 100% what EC produced today is hideous.How can low pressure around Baltics  at 96hr travel NE under Scandi high and not towards west or southwest.The west based -NAO sets up to drain away all cold from Europe under cut of low around Ireland.Western Russian/Eastern Europe high flexing its muscles as an omnipresent feature. Couldnt have drawn more frustrating synoptics even if I wanted to

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Last 2 ECM run 10 day means. The last showing even less PV over Greenland, and slightly more blocking to our East. The PV really is on the move to the complete opposite side of the NH than expected. Surely this is extremely unusual!!!

 

D3CC99D5-AA66-4FF6-A1A9-A85919767F20.png

FD55A38D-9E17-4DDF-BA6E-F3DB5B04E40B.png
 

i mean look at those Canadian 850

anomalies, they should be at minus 20c, not putting swimming pools up in speedos!!  

3CD30AAD-DD7E-4036-A68E-F03A979EE196.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
24 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The evolution over the past couple of weeks has been excellent. It has built and built in terms of potential, and this has accelerated over the past few days. Even in isolation, the synoptic evolution over the next few days is good- solid for building what we are now seeing at days 9&10.

Whether we see a N'ly shown at days 9&10 that affects the UK is, at this point, moot. The hemispheric set up is absolutely ripe to deliver the UK a cold spell into December- I saw how it was shaping up a couple of weeks ago and said on here that we were shaping up for a potential cold spell a few weeks down the line. 

Of course, it can't be discounted that it all comes to nothing and we 'miss the boat' but from where I'm sitting thing look very good right now.

I’m with Crewe on this one the day 9 and 10 day charts on the ecm12z  show a classic route to cold. PV moving to Siberia wiould push the Russian  high west. Pressure is already rising in the gap between the Greenland and Russian highs The low near Iberia will go south or east, and the Atlantic is blocked off. Talk about building blocks falling into place. I,d bank that chart heading towards mid December any day of the week.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM mean at T240:

E2BBCA53-EB90-4868-91DE-D1105B313246.thumb.png.a327aa347394b258b9d786ff9052befd.png

I like this. Vortex completely where we want it.  If things go on like this, it won’t be long before we see a proper Greenland block on the op output.  And if one takes hold, they can be stubborn to shift!

You need trigger low pressure to advect cold weather somewhere in to Europe.Where will it come from on that anomally? I can see a rather massive inversion cold under that massive Scandi/Western Russian high but its as anti-snow anomally as it can get in my eyes.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
2 minutes ago, jules216 said:

You need trigger low pressure to advect cold weather somewhere in to Europe.Where will it come from on that anomally? I can see a rather massive inversion cold under that massive Scandi/Western Russian high but its as anti-snow anomally as it can get in my eyes.

It will come later, is the honest answer.  The first step for the UK would surely be to get a proper block in place, especially this early in winter before cold pools have had a chance to develop, then watch things develop.  Or would one rather have the Atlantic in full flow?  

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It will come later, is the honest answer.  The first step for the UK would surely be to get a proper block in place, especially this early in winter before cold pools have had a chance to develop, then watch things develop.  Or would one rather have the Atlantic in full flow?  

I might be wrong and I stand to be corrected (said the man in the orthopaedic shoes) but doesn't that mean show the presence of low pressure in central Europe anyway?

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

It will come later, is the honest answer.  The first step for the UK would surely be to get a proper block in place, especially this early in winter before cold pools have had a chance to develop, then watch things develop.  Or would one rather have the Atlantic in full flow?  

Winters in Europe have been cursed with too much endles high pressure. Seeing this anomally is a knife in the back. An inversion cold for me is like Atlantic onslaught for you. Believe me -2c during day and -8 in night for a full month with 0mm precipitation and 0m/s wind,visibility 300m would drive you of the clif. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
3 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Winters in Europe have been cursed with too much endles high pressure. Seeing this anomally is a knife in the back. An inversion cold for me is like Atlantic onslaught for you. Believe me -2c during day and -8 in night for a full month with 0mm precipitation and 0m/s wind,visibility 300m would drive you of the clif. 

You're kidding! I (we'd) love that

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
6 minutes ago, LRD said:

I might be wrong and I stand to be corrected (said the man in the orthopaedic shoes) but doesn't that mean show the presence of low pressure in central Europe anyway?

It does, and that is of key importance for us, but I think @jules216 may have been thinking of his location.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

 

24 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Yes presto!?!...so where is the northerly from yesterday's 12z at 240z+? I wonder if we might get another month of the good ol' day 10 potential of December 2018 over again?

"Man who waits for roast duck to fly into mouth must wait very, very long time."

Waiting for one of those 10-day "potential" charts to verify is hardcore!

The "big picture" is the main win out of the runs today, amplified pattern and a beating to the PV; RIP (rest in pieces). 

Of course, as ever, we will need a 2010-like lucky coincidence to make the most of any cold sinking south, as where the blocks are settling at the moment puts the UK in the hit or miss zone...

..."Better a diamond with a flaw than a pebble without one."

That is, assuming the continuity of the models is a good sign!

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It does, and that is of key importance for us, but I think @jules216 may have been thinking of his location.

Jules is in central Europe isn't he? For a mean chart I'm encouraged by how little influence High pressure is having in mainland Eurooe

Edited by LRD
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

My feelings exactly Nick! No idea how anyone can moan about that ECM output. Can only think some people cannot analyse synoptic charts properly?

 

Looking good tonight with GFS and ECM on same plane 

 

BFTP

 

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

image.thumb.png.116f0271fdb3a01172333a18cff10a29.png

Based on 850s, it's looking cool in the short/mid-term. Could go anywhere in the longer term. That can hide a multitude of options of course. One thing we can say is, it's looking pretty dry for the forseeable

Edited by LRD
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