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Model output discussion - Winter approaches

Paul

By Paul
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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)

Cold brief northerly with a reloading pattern from the NW possible.

The GFS is probably underdoing those 850 temps a little, given its well known cold bias at those ranges by it's still a decent enough quick shot down. Certainly cold enough for s ow showers.

Overall it's a cooler outlook, but other than a brief northerly nothing too cold nor sustained. Snow opportunity for the usual suspects in toppler northerly, elsewhere probably cold and frosty if the GFS came off.

Edited by kold weather
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Anthony Burden Seasoned

Anthony Burden

Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford
Posted

Still plenty of uncertainty after 120hrs,key to chance of some decent cold remains with

a long lasting continental feed.Gem best of the models at 10 days so far,also worth keeping

an eye on Gefs 850hpa to give some clues to 6 to 10 day temperatures.

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Geordiesnow Accomplished

Geordiesnow

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted

The dry theme continues on today's runs, its one of those where a slight change in jet stream could lead to a much flatter pattern but there is enough troughing in Europe to prevent that happening, at least in the short term. 

Nothing wintry in the outlook but some decent signs that fog and frost could be the dominant weather for now. 

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
17 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

The dry theme continues on today's runs, its one of those where a slight change in jet stream could lead to a much flatter pattern but there is enough troughing in Europe to prevent that happening, at least in the short term. 

Nothing wintry in the outlook but some decent signs that fog and frost could be the dominant weather for now. 

Nothing Wintry in the outlook?

Did you not see this morning's ECM?

Although I caveat that with the likelihood it will be gone in tonight's run.

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Tony47 Apprentice

Tony47

Posted
Posted

A decent lasting snowfall is the holy grail for me, but surely, frost and fog are also symbols of winter?

Whatever, the synoptics the last few weeks have been so different to last years that I'll take anything if it means a rest from endless zonality. In any case, it's still November. If the next weeks charts were coming up in late January i'd be disappointed but not as yet.

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Some nice Northerlies showing by day 10 on some ENS, P7 is a belter

9B5FBE05-CAB7-4762-9A54-65B265DDE81C.png

2EF576AC-F817-4370-A0F3-D6DE6AA36B18.png

03865B8D-D770-4F28-8EF8-5FF59B9EE6F9.png

990D0ED8-9C9F-4F3B-B563-3A196331A39B.png

AA950657-8F8B-436F-8F0A-A39E0B739070.png

3E712D03-F08B-4EEC-B089-B839D91F6134.png

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted (edited)

2m temps for the last 3 runs (for birmingham) show good agreement up to day 7...beyond that, it get's really messy.
image.thumb.png.3698f73fb3d6b00b24228f8136662713.png

Edited by PerfectStorm
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, That ECM said:

@feb1991blizzard you know that  1990 output you showed? Is ecm about to show something similar?   

FDE65FE8-E7F1-457B-884B-ECA0CB88A10B.png

Not sure actually, not so sure this ECM is that good tbh, hopefully it will develop something right at the end but more importantly hope the eps show something sustained in the extended.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
57 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Nothing Wintry in the outlook?

Did you not see this morning's ECM?

Although I caveat that with the likelihood it will be gone in tonight's run.

And you were right!

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted

ECM, GFS & GEM at 192 not a million miles apart.

ECH1-192.thumb.png.03f542e49c3d23d833786c8db5b51bb5.pnggfsnh-0-192.thumb.png.792d9a21f6b26549ea1f9a27088de8a1.pnggemnh-0-192.thumb.png.6c27bd6edc2d6bf5f2ace17907df658d.png

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And you were right!

It’s not far off it’s earlier run and still more of the run to follow. It wasn’t until day 10 that anything wintry was shown on this mornings run. It Could easily revert back tomorrow 

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Bricriu Seasoned

Bricriu

Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
Posted
7 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

ECM, GFS & GEM at 192 not a million miles apart.

ECH1-192.thumb.png.03f542e49c3d23d833786c8db5b51bb5.pnggfsnh-0-192.thumb.png.792d9a21f6b26549ea1f9a27088de8a1.pnggemnh-0-192.thumb.png.6c27bd6edc2d6bf5f2ace17907df658d.png

Am I wrong in thinking the High has shifted too far west on that ECM charts for us- the cold plunge seems to miss us and head in to the Atlantic sea.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

The remnants of that trough crossing the states looks key around day 8&9. If it goes N then it allows N Atlantic ridging to hold firm. The other option is it moves E more and deepens. This means we have to wait for another attempt at the ridging. The ECM day 9 seems to pull it N and thus allows firmer Atlantic ridging

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

12z EC shows the dangers of polar upper trough digging south too far west.

Yes the trough could disrupt into a cut-off low merging with troughing over SW Europe to allow for an easterly as high pressure extends over the top, but the source is a not particularly cold at depth airmass over eastern Europe. Could do with a direct arctic feed. 

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Here's the ECM 500hpa anomalies for the second week of December.

ps2png-gorax-blue-008-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-tSNY_2.png

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