Model output discussion - Winter approaches

[BlueHedgehog074]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Very limited comment on such a great ec ete. Anyway the easterly seems to have been dumped for a northerly as such? I'd suspect a middle ground with possibly a mlb. Dry and cool so seasonal 

It may not have been the cold Easterly and/or Northerly paradise some were expecting, but definitely feel the 12Z ECMWF could have been a lot worse in some ways. No angry Atlantic dominating our weather.

Some dry weather would be welcome. Nice to have a break personally from the damp, gloomy, conditions. ?

Not applicable for everyone but, feeling tempted to throw the toys out of your prams? then remember guys:

> Don’t take every operational model as certain. What they show after a few or more days isn’t a guarantee of what the weather will be like in your spot.

> Have low(ish) expectations. UK Winters typically aren’t full of Northern blocking and heaps of snow. (Latter more likely applicable if you live on a Scottish mountain). 

> Some great cold spells with snow, while maybe not as long-lasting, can occur without Northern blocking. 

> There’s always those few odd occasions where models show a mild, flat, Atlantic drivern pattern only to suddenly pull out a surprise and go for something cold and wintry. A mild South-Westerly flow at day 6 could easily change into a potent North-Westerly flow with snow showers. Which then verifies. 

> Has been mentioned before, but some of the frustration can be reduced by comparing the 00Z or 12Z runs with previous ones of the same time of day. So today’s 12Z ECMWF with yesterday’s 12Z run. A better way most times to get more consistency. Helps as well to use mean charts, ensembles and/or teleconnection charts for some guidance as to what the weather may do in the longer term. 

> For those that hate it, it’s not certain at the moment that the Atlantic and its Westerly drivern weather will return after the likely UK/Eastern UK blocking. Especially of the South-Westerly kind. 

12Z ECMWF ensemble mean at 240 hours would suggest more of a North-West to South-East tracking Jetstream towards us upstream. So no raging, mild, South-Westerly. This is just one chart from one model though. 

 

(Sorry if this has already been posted though). 

> Have a break if it’s getting too much. Sometimes a break can help refresh the mind and see the models from a fresh perspective. Can put you in more of a anti-toy-throwing state - even if it’s just for some time. 

> Don’t visit the pram store. 

To be fair, none of us are perfect. So some toy throwing is to be expected and, in fact, is something that can happen in everyday life, not just with the models. Nevertheless, some of the above could help if you’ve been prone to tossing the teddies about all the time. I think when their has been quite a bit of gloom, it’s worth being reminded it doesn’t always have to be bad news. And that even some of the things that did seem discouraging, could lead to something more promising. 

[feb1991blizzard]

42 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

 

> Have a break if it’s getting too much. Sometimes a break can help refresh the mind and see the models from a fresh perspective. Can put you in more of a anti-toy-throwing state - even if it’s just for some time. 

> Don’t visit the pram store. 

T

Best thing to do is just forget December and Jan and if anything does happen its a bonus, just hope for a Mid to late season SSW to put us in the game for February.

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Best thing to do is just forget December and Jan and if anything does happen its a bonus, just hope for a Mid to late season SSW to put us in the game for February.

December looks loaded to me mate?

Certainly I'm chasing a northerly !

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

December looks loaded to me mate?

Certainly I'm chasing a northerly !

All looks very transient in nature, a Slushfest for you and Saddleworth at best, cold rain for me - i haven't seen anything that points to a proper Northerly yet.

[sheikhy]

Anyone on 18z gfs patrol?

[SMU]

pub run T108.

About a good a shape high pressure as you can get given the depth of the cold pool.

That would be classed as a significant upgrade.

[kold weather]

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

All looks very transient in nature, a Slushfest for you and Saddleworth at best, cold rain for me - i haven't seen anything that points to a proper Northerly yet.

I tend to agree for the moment, the set-up however is still quite a bit removed from where we could be if we had a coupled Strat-Troph situation like last winter rapidly evolved into.

At the very least its looking increasingly cool by day and we should start to see some frosts next week under a subtle continental wind (though I think it might be somewhat limited due to cloud cover).

Still time for changes to allow the set-up to become very interesting for all of the country. At the moment its probably a C+ type set-up we are seeing, its far from as bad as it could be but if it doesn't evolve into something more interesting on its own it won't be much to note.

 

[SMU]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Anyone on 18z gfs patrol?

Are you just Shakey ?

[blizzard81]

9 hours ago, bluearmy said:

given the overall tone of the 00z eps suite, there will be a fair bit of attention on the ec46 when it appears this evening 

Good news? Or an anti-climax? 

[Froze were the Days]

2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

EC day 10 mean is solid for a Nly thereafter. All good.

Seriously!?! that's if we ever get to near that point...210 looked good until 240, there always seems a way for cyclogenesis to form around Greenland/Iceland area.

Seems to be the trend on here of recent winters to mention day 10 or beyond

Edited November 23, 2020 by Froze were the Days

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Are you just Shakey ?

Yup!!!looks a big upgrade at 108 hours steve!!will that cold pool make it further west!!!?

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I tend to agree for the moment, the set-up however is still quite a bit removed from where we could be if we had a coupled Strat-Troph situation like last winter rapidly evolved into.

At the very least its looking increasingly cool by day and we should start to see some frosts next week under a subtle continental wind (though I think it might be somewhat limited due to cloud cover).

Still time for changes to allow the set-up to become very interesting for all of the country. At the moment its probably a C+ type set-up we are seeing, its far from as bad as it could be but if it doesn't evolve into something more interesting on its own it won't be much to note.

 

Im going to go the other way and say i would prefer old skool late Autumns with rampant zonality, the sooner they couple, the sooner they are parted rather than ending up with cold Marches.

[feb1991blizzard]

-8c isotherm is within touching distance of Murr at T+156.

[SMU]

6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yup!!!looks a big upgrade at 108 hours steve!!will that cold pool make it further west!!!?

Just lol

156 ...

-8c into Kent with snow flurries...

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Im going to go the other way and say i would prefer old skool late Autumns with rampant zonality, the sooner they couple, the sooner they are parted rather than ending up with cold Marches.

I don't mind that, but of course you run the risk that they simply never part full stop, as we saw last winter. With a strong ENSO event I worry that omnce something like that sets-up its going to be mighty hard to decouple them and is going to need the potluck of some major PV disruption event, certainly no guarantee. 

The longer they can stay decoupled the greater the chances we can establish some early sort of upper high that we can use, especially if we can keep the set-up closer to El nino look throughout the atmosphere (again, no certainty that will last through the winter, would be classic if it shifted late winter so we get the worst of both worlds so to speak!)

Thumbing through the ECM ensembles, its fair to say that most are a little cooler than average, but very little give anything that sustained or noteworthy. Equally on the positive side, few go all that mild either. 

[chris55]

18z setting up a cold easterly feed. Daytime temps really struggling, should feel very seasonal. 
 

Edited November 23, 2020 by chris55

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Just lol

156 ...

-8c into Kent with snow flurries...

Wow that is very close mate!!upgrade on the 12z i think!!lets hope 00zs upgrade the initial easterly tomorrow!!ukmo really needs to up its game on the 00z!!had enough of this flip flopping!!lol

[northwestsnow]

18z ushers Dec in with a cold flow . .

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just lol

156 ...

-8c into Kent with snow flurries...

A snizzle chart if ever I've seen one!

There is enough there to work with in terms of precip, but I doubt anywhere is going to be getting anything beyond flurries from that of course.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

WARNING!  Cold run incoming

 

BFTP

[Geordiesnow]

3 minutes ago, chris55 said:

18z sending in a cold easterly feed. Daytime temps really struggling, should feel very seasonal. 
 

All depends on cloud over in set ups like this I feel. I don't mind a cold cloudy day if its foggy as that can be seasonal but much prefer the sunnier days and frosty nights. 

Either way, after this weather front clears on Wednesday we should go through a period of no Atlantic weather which is most welcome. 

[Tim Bland]

Snizzle alert! Might even get a flurry ️

[feb1991blizzard]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

18z ushers Dec in with a cold flow . .

It very nearly ushered in Dec with a right pasting but the trough didn't slide enough, too much energy went NE - rain for Western Britain.

Edited November 23, 2020 by feb1991blizzard

[blizzard81]

15 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

WARNING!  Cold run incoming

 

BFTP

Commentators curse!

[Tim Bland]

17 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

WARNING!  Cold run incoming

 

BFTP

After the colder easterly at day 7 it Looks about the same as the 12z to me?