Model output discussion - Winter approaches

[That ECM]

Seasonal.  pv on the move and meto using the words “become more uncertain” . We are in the game

Edited November 23, 2020 by That ECM

[Ali1977]

The U.K. looks like it’s sat in some pretty stagnent continental air at day 7/8, the continent isn’t very cold but I imagine it will still feel pretty seasonal. Can’t see the 2m temps , but daytime temps here would be below normal.

 

Now we just need the PV to shift East and get some heights up and around Greenland to give us a chance at getting some Arctic Air.

 

Edited November 23, 2020 by Ali1977

[dragan]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

The U.K. looks like it’s sat in some pretty stagnent continental air at day 7/8, the continent isn’t very cold but I imagine it will still feel pretty seasonal. Can’t see the 2m temps , but daytime temps here would be below normal.

agreed, think it would also be colder away from the east coast too, western areas with clear skies may benefit if it’s frost you want 

[That ECM]

Yesterday ecm and this mornings. Where’s the low to the nw? Removal of this would help

[booferking]

Gem & Ecm talking from the same hymn sheet would be game on come December.

[Ali1977]

I’d bank that, look how cold that air is just to our North, about -16c 850s only about 200 miles off Scotland and winds staying from the North.

Heights are building up around Labrador and the LPs in that area are dying away, so less chance of spoiling the party. Let’s see if the 06z GFS shows similar. I’d expect a change of words on the METO forecast if their models showing similar, and let’s not get too carried away as it’s still a long way off!! Nice all the same though!! 

[carinthian]

Morning all. Encouraging charts this morning from most models. Especially, like the UKMO charts at 144t which indicates a upper cold pool low circulation at  level, not extreme, but its circulation is there. The lower 850mb temps are reflected with this development as shown below. Possible snow on the higher ground of Northwest England / Wales. Although still to far out to predict this but the general trend to colder weather continues, especially for you guys in the Kingdom. Looking further ahead the trend continues for falling heights over the continent, which I take is a good sign .

C

[DavidS]

Good indications for a cooler and more seasonable spell of weather in the coming week. With the potential for something colder in the extended.

[Ali1977]

6 minutes ago, DavidS said:

Good indications for a cooler and more seasonable spell of weather in the coming week. With the potential for something colder in the extended.

The day 10 mean pressure chart shows many of the EMS must be on the same page, and there’s no quick return to a mobile set up from here you’d think!! Maybe nothing exceptionally cold (Initially at least) but this could be a long chilly spell, not often we have those nowadays. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

8 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Day ten control...

...incoming.

Op gone towards that

 

BFTP

[mb018538]

Great looking charts this morning!

Any time we see the main lobe of the PV pushed away from Greenland/Arctic Canada, it's definitely game on for some UK cold. Both of these day 10 charts are absolute belters.

[booferking]

Ec mean 00z an ever improving picture.

In fact it's a cracker 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This is why we call it FI....just ain’t going to happen...

 

 

BFTP

[Nick F]

Seems to be ensemble support now for mid-latitude ridging developing over UK as we end the weekend and head through early next week  - as ridge  to the NE and Azores ridge join forces, which is fine, as it will bring some chilly days and cold nights helped by a continental feed in the south. 

In the extended model outlook, the Scandi-Ural block looks to remain a formidable force as we head into early December in ensemble guidance - and will surely help longer term prospects with anticyclonic wave breaking over the NE Atlantic as troughs from the TPV try to push in towards NW Europe. Which is why I'm a little bit skeptical of the 'ScandUral' high being so easily pushed aside by that lobe of the PV on the 00z EC det. to bring in that potential bitter northerly.

It seems like lobes of the TPV could try and squeeze S and SE through the mid-latitude high belt from Greenland towards NW Europe in the extended, ideally we want them to disrupt quickly into cut-off lows that feed lower heights over SW - S Europe ... rather than an intact trough axis that sits over or just west of the UK.

The continued presence of the Gulf of Alaska trough into the extended seems to be doing favours in pulling the TPV over that side of the northern hemisphere too with ridging over Canada and Labrador preventing the TPV from gaining too much hold and strength over Greenland.

 

Edited November 23, 2020 by Nick F

[Zak M]

Take a look at those uppers on this mornings ECM run... reaching near -16c in the Shetland Islands!

[northwestsnow]

The first chase begins with EC det day 10...

Net weather Prayer mats ready to be initiated !

[southbank]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The first chase begins with EC det day 10...

Net weather Prayer mats ready to be initiated !

fully expect the Nick Sussex winter Prozac supply to see its first winter outing ........

[northwestsnow]

So, the emerging trend appears to be the Azores high ridging NE to southern Scandinavia, this slowly erodes and all eyes turn to the Atlantic...

Could go really well ala EC det, or meh , ala GFS op...

 

Edited November 23, 2020 by northwestsnow

[Tim Bland]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

So, the emerging trend appears to be the Azores high ridging NE to southern Scandinavia, this slowly erodes and all eyes turn to the Atlantic...

Could go really well ala EC det, or meh , ala GFS op...

 

I’ve seen over the last few years that when GEM agrees with ECM we can be fairly confident. I’m not sure about recent data but GEM was outperforming GFS at day 10 last time I checked.
 

Lots to be optimistic about going into winter...can’t believe it’s not even winter yet! Feels like we are half way through snow chasing season already

[nick sussex]

34 minutes ago, southbank said:

fully expect the Nick Sussex winter Prozac supply to see its first winter outing ........

Unfortunately I’m having supply problems so will have to ration it! 

With that in mind the outputs need to dial down the stress for coldies !

Regarding today’s outputs encouraging signs but they key is to get the pattern sufficiently south and east and we need high pressure to the nw to act as a driver for that , we don’t want any suggestions of a west based negative NAO .

 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Unfortunately I’m having supply problems so will have to ration it! 

With that in mind the outputs need to dial down the stress for coldies !

Regarding today’s outputs encouraging signs but they key is to get the pattern sufficiently south and east and we need high pressure to the nw to act as a driver for that , we don’t want any suggestions of a west based negative NAO .

 

Careful though Nick, i have many a time in early winter during the run up to a failed cold spell before, feared a west based -NAO and the jet has ended up so much stronger it has ended up so far an East based -NAO that it is a +NAO!

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Careful though Nick, i have many a time in early winter during the run up to a failed cold spell before, feared a west based -NAO and the jet has ended up so much stronger it has ended up so far an East based -NAO that it is a +NAO!

The west based negative NAO is always a concern. So I’d like to see the models edge the pattern further se . It’s unlikely we’ll end up with an east based negative NAO with the current evolution , the blocking over Russia is likely to stop any troughing from making too much eastwards progress .

Anyway let’s keep our fingers crossed as the UK deserves a change of luck after the recent run of rubbish winters .

[Methuselah]

A quick, wee perusal of this morning's 00Z... at T+384, of course!

    

Et les ensembles:

    

    

By Gad, that was exciting!

[sheikhy]

In regards to the continental flow around 120 and 144 hours we need to see stronger ridging across norway on the gfs 06z!!!gfs 00z was still quite weak with it especially when comparing it to the ecm and ukmo!!

[jules216]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The west based negative NAO is always a concern. So I’d like to see the models edge the pattern further se . It’s unlikely we’ll end up with an east based negative NAO with the current evolution , the blocking over Russia is likely to stop any troughing from making too much eastwards progress .

Anyway let’s keep our fingers crossed as the UK deserves a change of luck after the recent run of rubbish winters .

That is why I always keep alluding to the fact we need to keep an eye on what is happening to the east not just NAO region. It has been an eternity since we last had proper low heights in Europe in winter specially early winter. They are often modeled after 192hr but the SE Europe/Western Russia high is a beast in winter