Model output discussion - Winter approaches

[Anthony Burden]

ECM from 168 hrs going for an unsettled spell,but this time from east to west,

if correct some white stuff definitely on the agenda.

[damianslaw]

6 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

The ECM is more progressive with the heights to the NE, but the GEM sings from the same hymn sheet at day 10 with the low diving SE. One to watch for sure. 

Provided we maintain lowish heights over Iberia and then preferably transferring further east to Italy, then the trough would be forced on a NW-SE alignment, trough disruption would be very plausible against the heights to the NE, the low heights over Iberia will help prevent the azores high from ridging NE, and instead it has to retract westwards.

I've mentioned these low heights over Iberia last couple of days, the amplifying high mid-week the reason.

[dragan]

9 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

ECM from 168 hrs going for an unsettled spell,but this time from east to west,

if correct some white stuff definitely on the agenda.

then at 192, 216, 240 it’s back to average temps and weather west to east 

[damianslaw]

ECM interesting in its latter stages, trough disruption and heights pulled far out into west atlantic which look like joining hands with developing heights over Greenland,  if it went further would likely show trough dropping through the UK and strong heights building to the NW. Could quite easily though be gone in future runs, as  likelihood of strong heights to our NW look weak given position of the PV, but you never know.

[Cleeve Hill]

What I like this evening is that all three models are pretty much a likeness at 120 - 168 i.e the reliable time frame.  Thats something we dont see much off. On that basis I think we can confidently say we will all be seeing a colder end to November. 

Once we hit a cold spell you will invariably find it gets extended. 

I'm enjoying the N Hem profile this autumn with no raging westerlies. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well for the end of Nov going into December the ECM imo is a peach, I’ll take that for this time of year any day.  

As some ‘comment’ I’ll post a favourite snapshot of the run in a sec

T144

that’ll feel pretty chilly especially in south with more wind.

T168....not bad at all

set up looks very feasible to my eye.

BFTP

Edited November 22, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Well for the end of Nov going into December the ECM imo is a peach, I’ll take that for this time of year any day.  

As some ‘comment’ I’ll post a favourite snapshot of the run in a sec

T144

BFTP

Its not hard to see how we coyuyld evolve into a colder pattern on the 12z ECM, I've seen that evolution countless times. It doesn't tend to shove that cold air down due to the evolution of how the upper high move to our north and the way the cold air shifts around, but it'll be enough by early December to provide so interest, and like Nov 10 it can sometimes become a longer term pattern if it establishes well.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Its not hard to see how we coyuyld evolve into a colder pattern on the 12z ECM, I've seen that evolution countless times. It doesn't tend to shove that cold air down due to the evolution of how the upper high move to our north and the way the cold air shifts around, but it'll be enough by early December to provide so interest, and like Nov 10 it can sometimes become a longer term pattern if it establishes well.

Indeed the cold air never gets shunted away and trough disruption occurs at the end.  A very nice run....I hope it develops from here....it’s very feasible looking at it...so I’m hopeful

 

BFTP

[Nick F]

TPV retograding away from our side of the northern Hemisphere across the north Pole, looping the 12z EC NH charts, certainly aiding the +ve heights to the NE being maintained and hopefully stretching our way.  Now if the TPV can stay away that would be good prospects for growing surface and eventually upper cold as we head into early December.

[Anthony Burden]

27 minutes ago, dragan said:

then at 192, 216, 240 it’s back to average temps and weather west to east 

Anything over 168hrs very unlikely to happen as shown as shown so many times before.

In the present uncertainty regarding Scandinavian high v Atlantic could be down to 96hrs to 120hrs.

 

[dragan]

9 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Anything over 168hrs very unlikely to happen as shown as shown so many times before.

In the present uncertainty regarding Scandinavian high v Atlantic could be down to 96hrs to 120hrs.

 

yeh your right, although odds on that westerly airstream wins out 

[northwestsnow]

Some excitement in twitter land....

Eps trending colder?

Mean suggests we will see Eiro heights struggling to establish.

Edited November 22, 2020 by northwestsnow

[Cheshire Freeze]

Day 10 ECM mean loaded with possibilities 

[Daniel*]

Very sad this would be an improvement on last winter in London and it’s not even began, I had one day in early December which max was 6C that was my coldest day. 

[Met4Cast]

As a couple of others have mentioned, the trend on the EPS 12z compared with the 00z is subtly cooler.

Not a huge swing by any stretch of the imagination, and the huge amount of spread shows the continued uncertainty, but the means are moving in the right direction, especially compared with where we were a few days ago. 

It's no "beast from the east", but it might bring something a little more seasonal.

[fromey]

Apparently the QBO is in a easterly descending phase!, I assume that’s a good thing?? 

[Daniel*]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Some excitement in twitter land....

Eps trending colder?

Mean suggests we will see Eiro heights struggling to establish.

Yes it has. 2m temp anomaly pretty cold first half to December if this is right.

[Eskimo]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

As a couple of others have mentioned, the trend on the EPS 12z compared with the 00z is subtly cooler.

Not a huge swing by any stretch of the imagination, and the huge amount of spread shows the continued uncertainty, but the means are moving in the right direction, especially compared with where we were a few days ago. 

It's no "beast from the east", but it might bring something a little more seasonal.

I would argue a subtle trend is far better than a wild swing - it would imply that there's possibly some run-to-run agreement. 

[Allseasons-Si]

1 hour ago, Nick F said:

TPV retograding away from our side of the northern Hemisphere across the north Pole, looping the 12z EC NH charts, certainly aiding the +ve heights to the NE being maintained and hopefully stretching our way.  Now if the TPV can stay away that would be good prospects for growing surface and eventually upper cold as we head into early December.

Yes Nick and a good run NH wise

the EPS also shows the trop pv relocate over to western Canada/easy pacific with +ve heights over central/east canada into western Atlantic,quite strong heights there ridging into southern Greenland

day ten 12z ECM mean v's this mornings 0z,you can see the low heights lift out of NE canada with NW trough digging further S/SE

the EPS clusters starting to show heights in the Atlantic also.

 

 

Edited November 22, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Mike Poole]

Trop vortex in extreme pain here, ECM T240:

Good to read all the great posts, you guys have started early this year!!  Lockdown boredom maybe!  But I think there is a window of opportunity in the next 4 weeks to nail some proper cold this year before the strat and trop vortexes couple, will elaborate tomorrow, but for now, just easing myself back into the discussion  

[mountain shadow]

23 minutes ago, fromey said:

Apparently the QBO is in a easterly descending phase!, I assume that’s a good thing?? 

It is partly but will have little influence this Winter. 

[sheikhy]

Cmon 18z give us one of those frigid drunken pub runs

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Cmon 18z give us one of those frigid drunken pub runs

No,we want it to stay sober

[Met4Cast]

Great example of an Atlantic wave break throwing heights up into Scandinavia on the 12z GFS ensemble mean.

Not exactly deep into the extended period either. Also great to see continued support for the Aleutian low, could help lead a trop led warming & weakening of the strat as we head through December, assuming it verifies. 

Growing confidence we'll see heights to the NE to end the month, if we get that, it wont take too much to advect cold our way..

[northwestsnow]

29 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Trop vortex in extreme pain here, ECM T240:

Good to read all the great posts, you guys have started early this year!!  Lockdown boredom maybe!  But I think there is a window of opportunity in the next 4 weeks to nail some proper cold this year before the strat and trop vortexes couple, will elaborate tomorrow, but for now, just easing myself back into the discussion  

 

I've not posted so much in ages...